- Dołączono
- 22 Wrz 2021
I do think that Putin has thought through this eventuality and his next step is going to be mass enlistment. Things are going to get a lot worse before they get better.
Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion
- Twórca wątku Bohdan Khmelnytsky
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- Dołączono
- 16 Gru 2019
Two problems with a mass call-up: Putin is going to have to pull some transport vehicles out of his ass unless he just wants them to die uselessly in foot assaults, and the West will have fewer reasons to keep munitions in reserve since those reserves are needed in case Putin goes full retard and decides to attack them... which he'll have problems doing if he's gone all in on Ukraine.
Don't forget there's a non-zero chance the Poles might decide to take back the Eastern parts of their land the Russians snatched up after WW2 if they thought Putin was unable to respond with effective force due to being so deep in Ukraine even his balls have gone inside.
HidekiVonMetternich4real
kiwifarms.net
- Dołączono
- 13 Lut 2023
As far as Poland goes, unless Poland is directly attacked then its highly unrealistic. Because a) the influx of Ukrainian refugees as well as the recent Ukranian unit naming incident has seriously soured relations between Poland and Ukraine and b) there's not much of a stomach for an offensive war in Poland.
The left wing in Poland would never support any offensive war, the conservacucks don't really like Ukraine and view them as more of a buffer state than anything else and the far right hates Ukraine so much they prefer Russia.
Furthermore in terms of the territory allocated to Belarus most Poles don't have strong feelings towards them as east of Białystok there's very little economically or culturally significant territory. The main territorial losses you see Polish irredentists cry over are those belonging to ukraine and lithuania actually. Notably Vilnius (Wilno), Lviv (Lwów) and Ivano-Frankivsk (Stanisławów). The left doesn't care about former territorial loses at all and would hate the idea of incorporating territory with a gorillion russians/ belarussians. See how both Poland and Lithuania rejected the sale of Kaliningrad/ Konigsberg for those exact reasons.
The only scenario in which Poland actively intervenes is alongside the rest of nato or they get attacked and invoke article 5, we're not playing TFR here.
In terms of the mass consciption, the logistical strain remains the biggest limitation as you've pointed out. However:
If mass mobilization does occur then we will more than likely see the mobilization of the economy as well which would ramp up production. Russia is still peddling the delusion that this war is something like a repeat of the war in Afghanistan/ Chechnya and is assymetrical. So it still runs a civlian economy for the most part. A mass mobilization scenario would upend all of that, but given how dysfunctional the russian economy and government it remains questionable how effectively they can mobilize the country in the first place.
The biggest problem with that is whether or not China would support such an escalation of the war (they may or may not) as russia imports most of its heavy machinery, automotives and electronics from China now. In terms of China's position on this the more exhausted and reliant upon China Russia gets the happier the CCP will be. However China is still trying to court the European new left to present themselves as an alternative for diversifying trade and reducing reliance upon the US, and them backing Russia in such an escalation would really jeapordize that. My bet is that they won't.
Right now Russia is in no position to pursue mass mobilization anyways due to the gas shortages caused by the recent attack, however it wouldn't be impossible for them to try something like that once they have recovered from that.
Imo escalating the war would be a very stupid decision but then starting the war in the first place was already extremely stupid, so who knows what Putin will resort to.
- Dołączono
- 16 Gru 2019
Yeah, that's the problem with Russia. I know there's been several times so far in this thread we've gone "They can't possibly be so retarded that they would do that," and then they demonstrate that they are in fact so retarded that they would do that.
- Dołączono
- 26 Lut 2019
A Ukrainian "survives" four FAB500 strikes:
"Your hearing loss, organ bruising, and brain liquifaction is not service connected, blyat"
Hopefully Ukraine's version of the VA will actually do their job, and can get the funding for it too; preferably from confiscated Russian assets. But in any case I'm sure the Ukrainian VA will still be better than ours, as it seems like they actually give a fuck about their wounded & disabled soldiers.
"Your hearing loss, organ bruising, and brain liquifaction is not service connected, blyat"
Hopefully Ukraine's version of the VA will actually do their job, and can get the funding for it too; preferably from confiscated Russian assets. But in any case I'm sure the Ukrainian VA will still be better than ours, as it seems like they actually give a fuck about their wounded & disabled soldiers.
Ostatnio edytowane:
NKVD qt
kiwifarms.net
- Dołączono
- 13 Gru 2022
Is that nigger grabbing a water bottle to try and put it out.
- Dołączono
- 20 Lip 2019
- Dołączono
- 20 Mar 2024
Brown
Raped
Indian
Cucked
Shitskins
Don't get me wrong, I dislike the 'hols. AZOVites formed the world's longest line when they got their russiaboo tatoos removed after 2014, after they realized the average Moscow resident saw them as gyppos. However, the nigger is still worse than the coalburner.
Raped
Indian
Cucked
Shitskins
Don't get me wrong, I dislike the 'hols. AZOVites formed the world's longest line when they got their russiaboo tatoos removed after 2014, after they realized the average Moscow resident saw them as gyppos. However, the nigger is still worse than the coalburner.
Echinacea
kiwifarms.net
- Dołączono
- 10 Lis 2024
ALL POWER TO AZOV
HidekiVonMetternich4real
kiwifarms.net
- Dołączono
- 13 Lut 2023
fr tho. One thing i hate to admit is that Trump's cirticism of European military spending would've been true just a few years ago. The burden of the defense of NATO has fallen and continues to fall disproportionately upon the shoulders of countries like the US and Poland.
The reality is that even with the ramped up spending it'll take years for the European defense industry to catch up. Especially with so many recent projects failing such as the Ajax.
France, the UK, Belgium, Sweden, the Netherlands and Germany are quite hypocritical as they'll criticize other countries for engaging in neocolonialism but will gladly exploit poorer EU member states in the balkans when no-one is looking. This is why as someone living in Europe the cries of exploitation and imperialism against the US kinda rings hollow to me.
They don't seem to realize that with how interconnected the world is today, what happens in places like the middle east and the pacific isn't just 'an american/ israeli problem'. Besides, the fact that some European countries are still struggling to reach to 2% spending limit speaks volumes. Obviously defense spending is increasing now but to anyone with more than 2 brain cells the writing on the wall had been clearly visible since 2014. Europe's excuse for having a lower defense spending had always been 'we only have one front to worry about' and the big three struggle to handle even that.
Poland completely mogs western europe and good for them. Poland is probably the only major western country that I have zero issues with in terms of foreign policy. Keep up the good work.
- Dołączono
- 17 Gru 2019
Assuming that Ukrainians are foolish enough to stop attacking fuel infrastructure or Russians somehow manage to mitigate that threat.
- Dołączono
- 3 Maj 2024
3 Iskander-M ballistic missiles and 2 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles were launched in total. All five were shot down by Patriot interceptors. It looks like the reports of Ukraine receiving additional interceptors were true.
Additional footage of the interceptions over Kyiv.
Jesus, the meme is true:
JCVD_Fan
kiwifarms.net
- Dołączono
- 17 Cze 2024
The reason why these pro-Russia third worldists, communists, pro-Palestine Muslims cannot be our ally is because they don't oppose America because they're gay and multicultural or oppose Israel because they're controlling Western countries and corrupting them. They oppose America, Israel and Ukraine because in their minds these countries are bastions of whiteness/capitalism/colonialism and if Israel ceased to exist they'd just become more of a problem because all of their hate will be focused on White people instead of White people and Jews.
- Dołączono
- 18 Lip 2017
Quoting my post from 2024.
Tick. Tock. Tick. Tock. The Clock Runs Out. The Time Runs Out.
- Dołączono
- 3 Lis 2019
Some of her 'jeet and turd world(ist) simps are likely crying. I hope Robert Brovdi or Karymat or another can sate our fascination. Pitiable poor men who perish deserve a little sympathy, but in dying they're discovering choices have consequences. Here that lady was putting a pretty face on Putin's Mongol like invasion and mass dime store Stalin genocide of Slavs.Oh no, consequences! And no more vacations or summer camps lol.
"It's so unfair, why is this happennniiiing!!"
RDT_20260624_220927.mp4
Her comment about truck drivers refusing to work confirms other reports too. Sitting at home, getting drunk & complaining is probably the preferable option to waiting for hours (a classic Russian pastime) in fuel lines, being extorted for it, and possibly getting blown up afterwards.
And speaking of...
Wyświetl załącznik 9189709
I'd like to see that drone video lol.
Speaking of Karymat, they've posted footage of the aftermath of an attack on a five storey building in Gorlovka in temporarily occupied eastern Ukraine. A quantity of Kadyrovite goat fuckers perished, tho it appears the Russians are again pretending it was an attack on innocent civilians. Dead goat fuckers and some lonesome goats.
Karymat Telegram
I think Putin will probably decide that a variant of the present methods, thousands of Africans, South Asians and Russian minorities, plus criminal scum and a certain number of conscripts doing their service in Ukraine or near for a bonus. An aggressive mobilisation or even a milder version might push things too far. Putin's best hope is that Euro aid can be weakened with the stupidest element of its voters who get their news from social media brainrot like TikTok. RN and Marine Le Pen of France (via her puppet Barddella and to some self interested degree), AfD (the still mostly East German party led by that fanatically pro Putin dyke Wiedel), Reform (Farage and Reform are dodgy gentlemen with clear Russian links but like Le Pen, they're first concern is themselves and their friends), Geert Wilder and PVV (but like Le Pen or Farage, Putin is just one possible source of money) are promising for weakening support for Ukraine. Nawrocki's increasingly terminally online, offence taking stance, again drawing on the least educated, promises to weaken support for Ukraine (but it's Tusk not him who matters and Tusk is trying to fix things, and hopefully Z will see that firing up some with an OUN named unit isn't worth it. Anyhow, to curb the rambles, I think Putin will keep things going roughly as they are, amplifying any minor conquests, hoping his social media and political corruptions will weaken support for Ukraine. His hope will be that various improvisations like importing fuel from CSTO frenemies and export bans, plus passive provincials will keep things going long enough.
An angry z blogger is probably an easy threat to squish, but there will come a point when some ruling class member seeing his wealth and status weakening will connect with enough disgruntled ordinary people to make continuing the war impossible. Still, Putin won't be meeting Lunin.
Nexta TV on Xitter
Ostatnio edytowane:
- Dołączono
- 4 Lis 2017
"they're already struggling to supply soldiers in active service, what are they going to do with potential hundreds of thousands more?"
Answer:
that or just put them into the cuber to feed the guys on the front lines.
While I agree that minus a big dark horse shakeup things are going to get worse, I don't think Putin is counting on support for mass mobilization.
If Putin mass-mobilizes, he will be admitting defeat same as if he made a peace deal. He will be giving up his Russia Stronk narrative and admitting he bit off more than he could chew. He got away with the last one because he could sell it as "our armed forces were dangerously low due to all that peace and now we have to be ready for the multipolar world" and not as meat for the Ukraine grinder. He does it again he can't just explain it away.
"unless he just wants them to die uselessly in foot assaults" - Found the flaw in your logic, chief.
Putin also has an issue with mass mobilization in that he can't just send the mobliks unilaterally to Ukraine, they have to volunteer - or he has to formally declare war.
Putin tried to get around this previously with the illegal Annexation of the Donbros; make the Donbros part of Russia, and now any conscript can be dumped there. But there was enough outcry and potential for revolt/insurrection by the troops that they had to walk it back and they enacted a reform to declare that only volunteers can be sent to the new provinces.
I just want to point out:
Four bombs, only one did a glancing hit on the bridge.
self point of order: That's all you need with a FAB tbf.
Ostatnio edytowane:
- Dołączono
- 18 Lip 2017
Ukraine's next move is obvious assuming Zelensky has the balls to go for the victory rather then the settlement. The decision point for this is fast approaching as soon as November 2026.
Formal declaration of war and general mobilization. Giving mobilized draftees a 1 year contract after 8 week basic training. With a mass campaign starting in May of 2027. The 2027 Spring and Summer campaign will be for all the marbles anyway. Either Ukraine takes back its territory or Russia holds it. And that will be the end of the war. No great power war lasts beyond the 5th year.
Tick. Tock.
Ukraine cannot sustain the war beyond the 5th year either. It all comes to conclusion in 2027.
Formal declaration of war and general mobilization. Giving mobilized draftees a 1 year contract after 8 week basic training. With a mass campaign starting in May of 2027. The 2027 Spring and Summer campaign will be for all the marbles anyway. Either Ukraine takes back its territory or Russia holds it. And that will be the end of the war. No great power war lasts beyond the 5th year.
Tick. Tock.
Ukraine cannot sustain the war beyond the 5th year either. It all comes to conclusion in 2027.
Ostatnio edytowane:
- Dołączono
- 16 Gru 2019
Yes, that was perhaps overly optimistic of me. Only Putin could see the value in sending forwards barely-supported foot infantry against a fortified defense in depth and expect any outcome beyond getting the enemy guns to reveal themselves. It worked with the Storm-Z penal units since nobody gives two fucks about violent criminals getting gibbed by artillery, but I doubt Russia in its current perilous state of demographics would be able to sustain that. Don't forget they also have to be running short on money to entice third worlders to enlist, especially since word has no doubt started to go around that you're going to wind up conscripted and sent to the front, no matter what job you think you're signing up for.
If Ukraine goes all-in like that and can't secure a decisive victory they're going to be in an even worse spot later on for the inevitable Round 2. Hell, even if they do secure a decisive victory they might still wind up in a bad enough position that Russia feels confident they could win Round 2. Given the sheer manpower disparity Ukraine must have a reserve of it in case things go to shit and they need to rebuild units in a hurry. They cannot afford to throw it all to the front lines in a gamble for victory, no matter how calculated, and frankly, given who is in charge of the Ukrainian military at the moment, it sure as shit won't be given how Soviet-brained they are.