- Dołączono
- 22 Wrz 2021
I do think that Putin has thought through this eventuality and his next step is going to be mass enlistment. Things are going to get a lot worse before they get better.
Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion
- Twórca wątku Bohdan Khmelnytsky
- Data rozpoczęcia
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- Dołączono
- 16 Gru 2019
Two problems with a mass call-up: Putin is going to have to pull some transport vehicles out of his ass unless he just wants them to die uselessly in foot assaults, and the West will have fewer reasons to keep munitions in reserve since those reserves are needed in case Putin goes full retard and decides to attack them... which he'll have problems doing if he's gone all in on Ukraine.
Don't forget there's a non-zero chance the Poles might decide to take back the Eastern parts of their land the Russians snatched up after WW2 if they thought Putin was unable to respond with effective force due to being so deep in Ukraine even his balls have gone inside.
HidekiVonMetternich4real
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- Dołączono
- 13 Lut 2023
As far as Poland goes, unless Poland is directly attacked then its highly unrealistic. Because a) the influx of Ukrainian refugees as well as the recent Ukranian unit naming incident has seriously soured relations between Poland and Ukraine and b) there's not much of a stomach for an offensive war in Poland.
The left wing in Poland would never support any offensive war, the conservacucks don't really like Ukraine and view them as more of a buffer state than anything else and the far right hates Ukraine so much they prefer Russia.
Furthermore in terms of the territory allocated to Belarus most Poles don't have strong feelings towards them as east of Białystok there's very little economically or culturally significant territory. The main territorial losses you see Polish irredentists cry over are those belonging to ukraine and lithuania actually. Notably Vilnius (Wilno), Lviv (Lwów) and Ivano-Frankivsk (Stanisławów). The left doesn't care about former territorial loses at all and would hate the idea of incorporating territory with a gorillion russians/ belarussians. See how both Poland and Lithuania rejected the sale of Kaliningrad/ Konigsberg for those exact reasons.
The only scenario in which Poland actively intervenes is alongside the rest of nato or they get attacked and invoke article 5, we're not playing TFR here.
In terms of the mass consciption, the logistical strain remains the biggest limitation as you've pointed out. However:
If mass mobilization does occur then we will more than likely see the mobilization of the economy as well which would ramp up production. Russia is still peddling the delusion that this war is something like a repeat of the war in Afghanistan/ Chechnya and is assymetrical. So it still runs a civlian economy for the most part. A mass mobilization scenario would upend all of that, but given how dysfunctional the russian economy and government it remains questionable how effectively they can mobilize the country in the first place.
The biggest problem with that is whether or not China would support such an escalation of the war (they may or may not) as russia imports most of its heavy machinery, automotives and electronics from China now. In terms of China's position on this the more exhausted and reliant upon China Russia gets the happier the CCP will be. However China is still trying to court the European new left to present themselves as an alternative for diversifying trade and reducing reliance upon the US, and them backing Russia in such an escalation would really jeapordize that. My bet is that they won't.
Right now Russia is in no position to pursue mass mobilization anyways due to the gas shortages caused by the recent attack, however it wouldn't be impossible for them to try something like that once they have recovered from that.
Imo escalating the war would be a very stupid decision but then starting the war in the first place was already extremely stupid, so who knows what Putin will resort to.
- Dołączono
- 16 Gru 2019
Yeah, that's the problem with Russia. I know there's been several times so far in this thread we've gone "They can't possibly be so retarded that they would do that," and then they demonstrate that they are in fact so retarded that they would do that.
- Dołączono
- 26 Lut 2019
A Ukrainian "survives" four FAB500 strikes:
"Your hearing loss, organ bruising, and brain liquifaction is not service connected, blyat"
Hopefully Ukraine's version of the VA will actually do their job, and can get the funding for it too; preferably from confiscated Russian assets. But in any case I'm sure the Ukrainian VA will still be better than ours, as they actually give a fuck about their wounded & disabled soldiers.
"Your hearing loss, organ bruising, and brain liquifaction is not service connected, blyat"
Hopefully Ukraine's version of the VA will actually do their job, and can get the funding for it too; preferably from confiscated Russian assets. But in any case I'm sure the Ukrainian VA will still be better than ours, as they actually give a fuck about their wounded & disabled soldiers.
