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Iran Crisis & the 2026 War between Iran and the United States, Gulf States, and Israel - Please focus on news and coverage, not argumentation.
Trump said in a PBS interview that if Iran doesn't agree he's going to bomb them.
The aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle and its French Navy escort vessels have transited the Suez Canal and are continuing into the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. The French forces will take part in preparations for a joint mission with the United Kingdom aimed at securing the Strait of Hormuz.
The French Navy Charles de Gaulle's carrier air group consists of:
~24 (two squadrons) Rafale M fighter jets, with a theoretical maximum deployment of around 30 2-3 E-2C "Hawkeye" airborne early warning & control aircrafts 4-6 AS365F Dauphin Pedro/EC725 Caracal/AS532 Cougar helicopters. Dauphins are SAR/plane guard helicopters, Cougars are logistics and commando transport helicopters, and Caracals are long-range transport with in-flight refueling and has sufficient defensive capabilities to operate in moderately contested airspace
Wait, did Trump unironically finally manage to convince France and the UK to fucking do something? All it took was him demonstrating for 24 hours that Iran can't do shit to ship escorts, and then he passed the baton off to them? There's no fucking way.
Wait, did Trump unironically finally manage to convince France and the UK to fucking do something? All it took was him demonstrating for 24 hours that Iran can't do shit to ship escorts, and then he passed the baton off to them? There's no fucking way.
Wait, did Trump unironically finally manage to convince France and the UK to fucking do something? All it took was him demonstrating for 24 hours that Iran can't do shit to ship escorts, and then he passed the baton off to them? There's no fucking way.
No. They are trying to put together their own cuck coalition to pretend to control the strait but they have to wait until the actual players are done and go home before its safe for them to grandstand and make their speeches. Hence the hilarious clown show earlier in the war when it looked like a deal was imminent and they announced they were heading to the strait with their grand euro coalition to make the strait safe for oil flows because they thought the war was over. Then Iran said no we don't yield yet and Trump announced the blockade and suddenly they had to turn around and pretend they never made any announcements.
They are obviously out of the loop because it appears ever since then they just read Trumps tweets and wait to see when he announces its safe for them to emerge so they can scurry out and start making their grand declarations again.
TLDR: They are desperately trying to insert themselves into the situation to pretend to be players and decision makers, but they have to wait for daddy to tell them its okay to dress up and put on their performance.
Wyświetl załącznik 8966071
Trump said in a PBS interview that if Iran doesn't agree he's going to bomb them.
Wyświetl załącznik 8966075
The aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle and its French Navy escort vessels have transited the Suez Canal and are continuing into the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. The French forces will take part in preparations for a joint mission with the United Kingdom aimed at securing the Strait of Hormuz.
The French Navy Charles de Gaulle's carrier air group consists of:
~24 (two squadrons) Rafale M fighter jets, with a theoretical maximum deployment of around 30 2-3 E-2C "Hawkeye" airborne early warning & control aircrafts 4-6 AS365F Dauphin Pedro/EC725 Caracal/AS532 Cougar helicopters. Dauphins are SAR/plane guard helicopters, Cougars are logistics and commando transport helicopters, and Caracals are long-range transport with in-flight refueling and has sufficient defensive capabilities to operate in moderately contested airspace
Would be interesting to see how the frogs will react when if the bombing resumes. Would they sit on the cuck chair or would they actually join in? And if so, will their ammo stocks last?
Wyświetl załącznik 8966075
The aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle and its French Navy escort vessels have transited the Suez Canal and are continuing into the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. The French forces will take part in preparations for a joint mission with the United Kingdom aimed at securing the Strait of Hormuz.
The French Navy Charles de Gaulle's carrier air group consists of:
~24 (two squadrons) Rafale M fighter jets, with a theoretical maximum deployment of around 30 2-3 E-2C "Hawkeye" airborne early warning & control aircrafts 4-6 AS365F Dauphin Pedro/EC725 Caracal/AS532 Cougar helicopters. Dauphins are SAR/plane guard helicopters, Cougars are logistics and commando transport helicopters, and Caracals are long-range transport with in-flight refueling and has sufficient defensive capabilities to operate in moderately contested airspace
"Joint mission" with WHAT bong Navy? lol. They have a partly functional carrier and a busted destroyer and this week I think they have a working SSBN until something on it breaks.
I am assuming the carrier is loaded with 13 year old British and French girls and boys that will be given to Iran as reparations for not cucking hard and fast enough to Islamic demands.
Also if the mission to open Hormuz, given they are Euros I guess they are going. totry to attack the US blockade on the orders of their Muslim masters like good dhimmis.
I think its way too premature to talk deals. Anything about a deal being close is Pakijeet wishcasting for izzat.
But, I'm willing to lock my stance on these issues, because they haven't really changed.
There are 10 main issues at play in 3 main categories:
Nuclear Issues: Current Stocks of HEU, Future Enrichment of Uranium, Enrichment Facilities, and Reactors
Regional: Ballistic (and now Drone) Stocks, Sanctions, Iranian international monies, Support/Funding for Proxies, and NEW FOR 2026 Control of the Straight of Homoz
Internal: Response to internal protests past and future
There are too many edge cases and trade offs, but to summarize my main opinions:
anything where Iran is allowed to retain their HEU stocks in-country is likely a loss, anything where Iran is allowed to enrich uranium is a loss unless rigorously monitored. Anything that results in sanctions being lifted without major concessions from Iran is a loss; even sanctions relaxed for Hormuz is a loss because that's Iran getting rewarded for chimping
I don't expect missiles and drones to come up in negotiations because of difficulties of ensuring compliance and any deal that mentions limits on either is likely a garbage deal.
I don't see any realisitic movement on Iran's proxies, so I think any inclusion of them in any deals is a win for Iran; funding/arming such groups is already illegal via UN resolution, so whatever Iran got in exchange for a pledge (that will ignore) will be somethign they wrung from the US team for free.
Iran's responses to protestors could be interesting if it comes up in the agreement. Anything where the US retains airstrike capabilities and has the right to intervene if the regime starts using live ammon on protestos like in december means we'll probably see any agreements get renegotiated.
for a more austistically detailed analysis
Lets set some terms. I'm going to treat the IRGC as separate from Iran - they currently control the government
I'm also going to set a "settlement
Topic 1, HEU stocks.
If the IRGC maintains control of current stocks of HEU, I view that as a definite "what the fuck were we even doing?" line if Iran is allowed to (and this is specific so brown posters you need to read and understand details, you might need to get your supervisor who can actually read english) maintain control of its own stocks of Uranium over 3.5% enrichment in-country (or realistically obtain/manufacture more).
Possible Outcomes:
-It is an Obama level loss if the IRGC can keep 60% uranium stores in country no matter what, I don't care what else is in the deal, that's a red line on cucking.
-If they are allowed to keep it in country but made to downblend to 3.5%, that's a loss but a lower tier one and might be acceptable depending on terms/enforcement (that is, can Iran tell the IAEA to fuck off like they told the JPCOA inspectors, or will the IAEA inspectors have free reign and the ability to bring real punishment on Iran for non-compliance; if that's the ACTUAL result, it might be acceptable if all other points are gained. If its something the IRCG can get around easily, see above)
-If they retain control of the HEU but it is transferred to a non-NATO (and non-France) country, that again would be a small loss but would depend on how the rest of the deal goes, it could be an acceptable trade off.
- If IRGC retains ownership of their HEU but it is transferred to a non-France NATO country, I count that as a minor win depending on other factors particularly future enrichement, as it keeps Iran from getting nuclear weapon.
Topic 2, Future in-country enrichment
If Iran is allowed to retain enrichment capabilities,
I am not gating based on XKG of enriched material allowed because I don't view "KG of material" as any sort of viable limiter as long as Iran is allowed to maintain in-country enrichment, because we've seen they will straight-up ignore and willflly and wantonly violate such limits. If weight limits are included in the, I would drop any outcomes by one level in the negative because it means the US side was duped.
Possible Outcomes
- Iran has no limits or safeguards on future HEU, that's an Obama level loss.
- Iran agrees to a moratorium on enrichment, but eventually moves to unlimited enrichement on any timeline, that's in the ballpark of Obama level loss, but given the precarious state of the IRGC might be an acceptable outcome as long as a hardline is maintained on all other items (that is, if the US retains the right to bomb the fuck out of Iran if they believe they are moving to a weapon). Because the odds of the IRCG being toppled if there is no external aid is very high.
- Moratorium on enrichment, but enrichment is capped at 60% - see above.
- Moratorium on enrichment, but enrichment is capped at 3.5% - This would be a neutral outcome, depending on how much teeth the enforcement mechanism has and the "cost"; If the IRGC gets this but no other wins except some sanctions relief (gives up proxies, funds still frozen, no future facilities, hardline inspections) and the enforcement has teeth to ensure compliance, that would be almost neutral. Otherwise probably a loss as the IRGC would just worm around it.
- Permanent ban on in country enrichement, this is almost certainly a huge win for Trump. It does need to be backed by consequences, because we've seen the IRGC can't be trusted.
Topic 3, Enrichment facilities
in general, I can see Iran being allowed to retain some centrifuge halls as an Izzat-soothing concession, but if they are active and not subject to rigorous monitoring, that is a loss for Trump. But "this is inactive but if we wanted to we could spin these up" I think is a reasonable national security posture allowance - depending on what else is in the deal.
Outcomes
- No restriction on enrichment facilities. This not as bad as an Obama loss, but its close. No restrictions means that any enforcement mechanisms are probably worthless as gettign the site added will delay compliance inspections.
- No new facilities but current facilities can be maintained. This would be a moderate loss to minor win, depending on the other factors. Example, if Iran agrees to no future incountry enrichment but is allowed to maintain their centrifuge halls, as long as wide-ranging inspection/enforcement with actual consequences is included that would be a minor win for trump. If they retain current enrichment sites and are allowed any enrichment, it'll be a loss depending on what levels are allowed. 3.5% certrifuges might be ok if Trump gets major wins on all other points.
Topic 4, reactors.
This is just for completion really, because reactors haven't been discussed heavily by either side. there was only one thing from Trump.
- Trumps proposal of Iran getting US reactors and fuel in exchange for giving up enrichment and HEU stocks. Again, as long as it comes with the IRGC giving up their nuke program, that'd be a slight to moderate win depending on if there are concessions in other ideas, namely proxies and frozen funds.
If Trump manages an agreement like "Frozen Iranian funds are used to build the reactors" that might nudge that to a major win, but its so unlikely, such a minor point, and I believe just Trump offering a deal he knew the IRGC would never take to undermine their "its for peaceful purposes" line of bullshit I am not spending much time here.
Topic 5, Ballistic/Drones, Strike capabilities.
This is another one I'm not going to spend much time on beause I don't expect any movement and IRGC has already shown they can't be trusted. I'm not even listing outcomes, because there is no possible level of inspection that is viable, especially for drones, and the IRGC offered limits on missile range but ignored those limits. As I said in the summary, I view any mention of specific limits as a win for the IRGC because they likely made the US trade something to put that in the treaty, and since they won't hold up their end they got that for free.
Topic 6, Sanctions.
There are too many possible outcomes to really break this down. in general, anything Iran gets here is a loss for Trimp.
Outcomes:
- No change on sanctions. Major win for trump.
- any immediate sanctions relief, win for the IRGC. they've shown they cannot be trusted so any inducements will just be a free giveme for the IRGC as they immediaely dance backwards to try to find the line.
- Anything in between is too variable to quantify until we see more detailed plans. If Iran earnestly and honestly abandons their nuke plans, reaffirms the right of passage through Hormuz as an international water way, even if they still keep funding international terrorist orgs sanctions roll back is a reasonable trade off.
Topic 7, International Funds
Again, too many factors to consider, but giving Iran access to its own money in exchange for other concessions might be worth it. But in general, it'd be a win for the IRGC.
Topic 8, support for Proxies
I honestly see this subject being tabled and never going anywhere.
Topic 9, Control of Hormuz
I think this is pretty self explanitory. IRGC gets to charge tolls or otherwise continue to assert they have control of the strait they get a big win out of this. I don't see Trump budging on this at all, if does, see previous statement.
Topic 10, Internal Protestors
This is the one where shit might get interesting. Them killing tens of thousands of their own peopel was what kicked off current festivities. so if the regime is hobbled in their ability to respond to protests, we might just see the regime fall from internal strife. But again, I don't think we see this come up and there are too many X factors to even productively speculate, especially since I doubt we see this in the final draft of any argeements with the IRGC.
Posting this just for transparency's sake, but here's Axios claiming Trump is totally about to sign the JCPOA 2.0 Wyświetl załącznik 8965315 Source | Archive
Source is still Axios, but they're about the only one actually reporting semi-new info right now. At the very least, Israel doesn't seem too worried that Trump is about to cuck (at least on the big stuff). Wyświetl załącznik 8965842 Source | Archive
Though to their credit, while they are Jeets, sort of like the National Enquirer, they occasionally manage to get the drop on new developments. Point at enough stopped clocks, one of them will eventually be right.
Europe refusing to help is a huge slap in the face to Trump. They don't have to contribute anything but thoughts, prayers, and the veneer that this is a NATO operation, bypassing the War Powers Act bs. Them refusing to do that is an attempt to help Democrats in Congress force him to stop the war. It'sthe main reason Iran is dicking around on a deal, they think they can just wait Trump out and it's going to cost Europe substantially but we were already headed that direction.
they think its a slap to Trump, but its only making his "NATO is worthless, we should take greenland" bluster look more and more reasonable. The fact they couldn't even provide token asurances shows how utterly shite they are as allies, how completely muslim cucked they are, and how they can't even act to support their own interests.
The IDF struck an apartment in the Dahiyeh of Beirut following Hezbollah's continued refusal to uphold the ceasefire, targeting the commander of Hezbollah's Radwan Force.
0:05
Prime Minister Netanyahu in a statement on the assassination attempt: I, along with Defense Minister Israel Katz, have instructed to strike the commander of the Radwan force in the Hezbollah terrorist organization in Beirut now in order to eliminate him. Radwan terrorists are responsible for firing at Israeli settlements and harming IDF soldiers. No terrorist has immunity. Israel's long arm will catch every enemy and murderer. We promised to bring security to the residents of the north. This is how we do it and this is how we will do it.
Already early reports by Israeli media that the strike succeeded. Along with that C12's Almog Boker reports that his deputy was eliminated in the strike too. Both of them were going to be targeted before the ceasefire but the government didn't give permission to carry out the strike to try and give the ceasefire a chance.
You'd expect that after the 3,000,000th assassination in the Dahiyeh they'd start hiding in some other places but I guess there's no other part of Lebanon where the citizens will agree to let them hide in it.
Im not trying to doom, but realistically, time is running out and Iran loves to delay and run out the clock. This '30-days' to finalize 'finer details' of a deal makes me uneasy. Its difficult for me to see Trump agreeing to JCPOA II.
In theory, Iran just need to survive until August with no deal. By that time, the public will be tired of the war and a hot war will just spike oil prices just in time for the democrats to bash republicans over the head with affordability and inflation, both issue Trump is addressing poorly. Iran thus is counting on a democrat victory, at best house and senate, to stop Trump and do their work for them. It asymmetric and totally in line with their playbook.
U.S. forces in the Gulf of Oman stopped an Iranian-flagged tanker attempting to violate the U.S. blockade on May 6.
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces observed M/T Hasna as it transited international waters enroute to an Iranian port on the Gulf of Oman.
American forces issued multiple warnings and informed the Iranian-flagged vessel it was in violation of the U.S. blockade.
After Hasna’s crew failed to comply with repeated warnings, U.S. forces disabled the tanker’s rudder by firing several rounds from the 20mm cannon gun of a U.S. Navy F/A-18 Super Hornet launched from USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72).
Too lazy to catch all the previous post but take that vlog with a pinch of salt about what Russia and China did the unthinkable about Iran. https://youtube.com/watch?v=b5G3snepgkQ
Still, the mollahs even if they menage to defeat the US, it'll be a phyrric victory with the water crisis they currently face. https://youtube.com/watch?v=UVtPKnBqdJg
I like to think Russia and China just how retarded Iran is during this whole conflict and how actively supporting them is a liability to other allies they want and need they are quietly shutting the doors on them. Long story short the IRGC has proven itself to be a liability. The leadership of Iran is retarded and a death cult.
Because it's all over. TACO, Trump's surrendered to Iran, gas will be $20 a gallon by Friday, and China has already won WWIII. Just take the blackpill, CHUD, there is no hope.
~24 (two squadrons) Rafale M fighter jets, with a theoretical maximum deployment of around 30
