Iran Crisis & the 2026 War between Iran and the United States, Gulf States, and Israel - Please focus on news and coverage, not argumentation.

[Autistic Nonetheless]

https://www.axios.com/2026/05/06/iran-us-deal-one-page-memo?mrfcid=2026050669f852024e34c652f4ad78a6

https://archive.is/F1xyH

This may be just more Trumpian bluster. More Gaza/Ukraine deal expected in the next two weeks bullshit. However if true (and Barak Ravid is closely connected to Trump via kushner and witkoff) then you are about to have a humiliating deal, worse then JCPOA ever was.

Your apologies "we are sorry Mr Autistic you were right all along" are most welcome.

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Just so we can establish a baseline to discuss with, what are the criteria both of you consider to say the war is/could be a "quagmire"?

Quagmire: a difficult, precarious, or entrapping position


Our involvement in Iran is:

Difficult - Iran is objectively difficult to: Occupy as a military force, negotiate with in diplomacy, and virtually impossible to enact ideological change. Despite all claims of being defeated, obliterated and powerless, Iran still seems to be capable of disrupting the global economy at will. Donald Trump is having a difficult time getting Iran to do what he thought would be done in 4-6 weeks and claimed was "ahead of schedule" several times.

Precarious - Politically and economically, Trump is in a precarious position with sentiment and appetite for continued conflict. Militarily, things are precarious because, as an example, Iran has successfully shot down aircraft even after the US MIC insisted Iran's airspace was ours. Since that operation, it seems like Trump backed off significantly because he realized Iran still has teeth. The clock continues to tick as we fuck around with boats.

Entrapping - Since the ceasefire, Iran has been playing fuck fuck games, stringing Trump along. The Paki's are absolutely in on it. And yet we keep doing the same dumb bullshit over and over again. Trump cannot pull out because he will look like an idiot. Trump cannot move forward with a deal because Iran can't negotiate in good faith. Trump's only options are to resume kinetic operations and create a humanitarian crisis for millions of civilians to play out on the world stage, or continue to sit around week after week while Iran digs out its munitions and resets its defensive capabilities.


Are we at Iraq/Afganistan levels? No. Not by a long shot. But this is clearly not going the way or at the pace we were informed it would happen at by the administration in February and despite all claims to the contrary, Iran is clearly still dictating how some things happen by playing these "Deal" games to stall. Iran knows the longer they can stall, the greater the economic impact is felt across the world of Trump and Bibi's actions.

This is what I meant by "If it smells, looks and tastes like a quagmire".

 

[Bangladeshi Kiwi Farmer]

Diaspora Iranians on twitter have been very stressed lately.

 

[Uncle Buck]

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Diaspora Iranians on twitter have been very stressed lately.

"People......don't really talk that way."

 

[los pepes]

It seems if there is a deal we are going to be flooded with the endless "OMG THIS IS WORSE THAN OBAMA TRUMP IS TOTALLY OWNED" vs "5D GALAXY CHESS VINDICATED IM NOT OWNED YOUR OWNED" so before any particulars leak I wonder what everyones' actual standards of a good/bad deal are? Because after the fact we know certain people are going to praise/condemn it literally no matter what is inside.

For me the number one signal is what happens to their current enriched uranium. If they are allowed to keep it that is -100 izzat for Trump and a sign the rest of the deal is going to be face saving but largely Obama deal 2.0. On the other hand if they give it up and it physically leaves the country then that has already accomplished something they insisted would never happen and certainly laughed at Obama for even suggesting it.

Number 2 is the strait control. If they are allowed to institute any sort of strait policing or toll collecting again and the blockade is still lifted that is likewise an izzat catastrophe. But if they end up agreeing to status quo ante and shipping resumes with them not being paid anything or dictating who can come and go, then that is again a huge win for America because they've been insisting they will never agree to that after what has transpired.

As far as actual enrichment goes, a 15 year pause is essentially giving up on enrichment in an izzat saving manner. They are not enriching now after last year and won't be for some time no matter what despite US media insisting last year that the damage had only done a couple months worth of setback and they would be up and running within the year. Never happened. So if they go 15 years without even trying to rebuild their "civilian" nuclear program, then yeah its not coming back.

As far as sanctions/assets. For me the big question is timing. Is it phased to ratchet down based on their actual compliance with the above terms? Or is it opening the floodgates to try and induce them to comply (which they won't as they already showed with Obama). The timing and phasing will, again, give a good indication on who actually got owned in this deal and who did the owning.

The last big point of contention for me will be their missile program. Are there any caps agreed to in the actual meeting? Again not that we expect them to honor the terms, but if they even agree to caps that is showing their ass. If it is not brought up at all then it makes Trump look like he's cutting his losses. But the missile/proxy angle is the hardest one to gauge because no matter what is said its the most difficult to actually monitor. You can't hide whether you give up the uranium or charge a toll for strait crossing or not. Its binary, you either do or don't. You can muddle the waters on rebuilding missile/drone infrastructure.

 

[Uncle Buck]

It seems if there is a deal we are going to be flooded with the endless "OMG THIS IS WORSE THAN OBAMA TRUMP IS TOTALLY OWNED" vs "5D GALAXY CHESS VINDICATED IM NOT OWNED YOUR OWNED" so before any particulars leak I wonder what everyones' actual standards of a good/bad deal are? Because after the fact we know certain people are going to praise/condemn it literally no matter what is inside.

And the actual truth will be nothing more than a return to the relative status quo.

 

[los pepes]

And the actual truth will be nothing more than a return to the relative status quo.

Well the status quo before the war was that their nuclear program was buried underneath rubble and mountains, the strait was open for business with no Iranian control, and Israel/America had established the precedent that they would bomb their homeland and yeet their leadership whenever they felt like it if they got out of line. That's not exactly a status quo Iran would want to return to.

Now we've added another month of severe bombing and leader yeeting, in addition to a month of naval blockading . "let's just go back to the way things were and pretend this never happened please", after all that is not exactly a signal of strength or deterrence. What, in returning to the status quo will prevent the US/Israel from mowing the lawn on them for a month or so once a year?

 

[HOMO FOR LIFE RETURNS]

Just drop a few nukes bro.

 

[ThisIsGonnaBeGood]

Big if true

Source | Archive

 

[Rustybuttons]

Genuinely, when if ever will Iran be free again? It’s hard to believe this shit has been going on since December.

 

[HOMO FOR LIFE RETURNS]

I thought Iran was running out of fucking water. What the fuck is going on

 

[Dammit Mandrake!]

>@Dammit Mandrake! is posting

>@Dammit Mandrake!

Ohhh I see. The carrot killed the alert.

 

[Uncle Buck]

What, in returning to the status quo will prevent the US/Israel from mowing the lawn on them for a month or so once a year?

Well, perhaps they should consider the idea that getting their metaphorical house in order might be a good one if they want to avoid another stern talking-to.

Obviously, that's going to take a change in philosophy. A tall order, that.

 

[Fred Fuckstone]

I'll speak for everyone, someone wake me up when something happens Mr. Racewar-san

 

[Pelican Bones]

even has something substantial to contribute

barely supported for decades

most countries don't even have the resources

Yes, this is my point about decades of poor decisions and refusal to put on their big girl pants. They made financial and military decisions that have left them incapable of sending some boats to help escort some container ships. "Well they can't send anything because they don't have anything." Yeah. Yeah, that's the fucking point people are making. How is anyone supposed to count on Europe in a real war when they've proven they are worthless on even small things?

 

[teriyakiburns]

We are going to be in so much trouble with Khorne if we keep teasing him like this. The Blood God will have his Blood! The skull throne will have its skulls! The only question will be who provides them!

Trump is more a Tzeentch cultist than Khorne. Change for the sake of change, crafting the appearance of plans within plans, and take the credit for anything that happens when it suits you. Predictably unpredictable.

Bruh how long is this roller coaster gonna go on.

The ride never ends, my friend.

In the beginning, the goal was regime change and a revolution, with the shah coming back in power, but by week 3-4, someone (probably Vance) showed trump a picture of Pahlavi smiling in the general direction of Biden.

Likely. I don't know if Trump was ever fully on the Pahlavi train, but he definitely flip-flops on the man every time Vance gets in proximity. Vance has always had a bit of a thirdie streak to him and seems to be quietly - or not so quietly - pursuing a multi-polarist policy in opposition to Trump's American Axis Mundi.

 

[Netizennameless]

This sounds more like just petty Cross-Atlantic slap fighting than any genuine practical grievances over the war effort, its frankly just embarrassing on both sides of the pond.

Europe refusing to help is a huge slap in the face to Trump. They don't have to contribute anything but thoughts, prayers, and the veneer that this is a NATO operation, bypassing the War Powers Act bs. Them refusing to do that is an attempt to help Democrats in Congress force him to stop the war. It'sthe main reason Iran is dicking around on a deal, they think they can just wait Trump out and it's going to cost Europe substantially but we were already headed that direction.

 

[Gay Sex Enjoyer]

France literally groveling at Irans feet also doesn't help

 

[Hannibalistique]

Europe refusing to help is a huge slap in the face to Trump. They don't have to contribute anything but thoughts, prayers, and the veneer that this is a NATO operation, bypassing the War Powers Act bs. Them refusing to do that is an attempt to help Democrats in Congress force him to stop the war. It'sthe main reason Iran is dicking around on a deal, they think they can just wait Trump out and it's going to cost Europe substantially but we were already headed that direction.

That's what you get when you replace the Norwegian head of NATO with a d*tch.

 

[autistic dog]

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Instructions for passing through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the Persian Gulf Strait Authority:

I hope the CIA has a few dozen of Iran's shitty missiles on hand to fire at any french or other cuck ships who try to take Iran up on passage.