Iran Crisis & the 2026 War between Iran and the United States, Gulf States, and Israel - Please focus on news and coverage, not argumentation.

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People need to take a breathe. The only thing that changed over the past 48 hours is the US Navy proved it could escort cargo ships through the strait and defeat Iranian attempts to stop it. Yes it would be nice if that meant the start of daily convoys, but for whatever reason they decided that's not in the cards right now. Could be as stated above that the shipping companies decided that they were still afraid and didn't want to risk it so Trump decided not to put US assets at risk every day just for show.

Either way the blockade was in place 2 days ago, and it's still in place now. People caterwauling about Trump giving up the strait to Iran need to take a xanax.
I agree with you, and I agree it's not as bad as others are making it out to be.

It's not so much that stopping the op is a loss as much as it's another case of DC suits pausing or issuing stand-down orders in the face of tactical success for political aims.

The good part is the US proved it could roll destroyers through the strait.
The bad news is Trump proved the war machine could be called off by silly negotiation games.

Just so we can establish a baseline to discuss with, what are the criteria both of you consider to say the war is/could be a "quagmire"?
Significant parity or near-parity casualties, years long campaigns, with no realistic exit.
 
I agree with you, and I agree it's not as bad as others are making it out to be.

It's not so much that stopping the op is a loss as much as it's another case of DC suits pausing or issuing stand-down orders in the face of tactical success for political aims.

The good part is the US proved it could roll destroyers through the strait.
The bad news is Trump proved the war machine could be called off by silly negotiation games.


Significant parity or near-parity casualties, years long campaigns, with no realistic exit.

I definitely agree that stop/start was retarded. If you are going to announce a campaign to buck break the strait then do it. Don't do it for a day then stop. I agree with people that say Trump made himself look like a sped for no reason. I just don't think it has any effect on the overall situation or that it is somehow proof he's giving up the strait.

Now if he announces some kind of bullshit humanitarian pause of the blockade on behalf of the pakjeet then yeah no matter how you spin it that is absolute capitulation. If Iran comes out of this standoff enriching uranium or charging a toll, no matter how small, for ships crossing the strait then they definitely can claim an izzat bumper crop.
 
Good lord everyone else is still so mad over Trump not going forward with Operation Freedom, did all of you actually believed in the self-imposed image of him being the big balls tough guy on the world stage who does what he wants with no consequences?

You do know that's all just propaganda for his supporters, right? surely you wouldn't fall for something that obvious.
last month he was a reckless idiot who does whatever he wants on the world stage with no consequences (and that's heckin bad) so which is it nigger?
 
Muslims killed and raped the peoples who actually made that stuff.
Your retarded goat-fucking deathcult you call a civilization goes back to 1979.

Rubio said today that all 90 million Iranian civilians could drop dead tomorrow, and the regime wouldn't give two shits so long as their IRGC thugs weren't among them, so it's clear the Trump admin has an understanding of how callous and despicable these people are, despite all of Trump's hemming and hawing about "regime change."
I hope that's a true understanding and not just a talking point. Becasue its right.

Ironically, the price of oil dropped lol. I don't fucking get day traders, man.
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I keep telling you niggers. Futures markets are 100% vibe trading.

though a drop was probably driven by an expectation of a deal resulting in permanent opening + blockade lifting (aka illicit Iranian oil flowing again)

I can almost guarantee that what happened is that Trump saw that almost no shipping companies were willing to send their ships through, even after proving the lane was safe, so rather than waste resources giving a lane people refuse to use defensive cover, he'd just reorganize under the cover of "talks going well."
Seriously, the levels of insane cowardice these people have towards a bunch of towelheads in fishing boats is embarrassing.
That's a probable method of action.
The trechery of London knows no bounds.

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The browns are posting victory on X. Can't say I blame them given Trump is stupid enough to be trusting Pakistan again.
We'll see how they feel by september. You can't AI generate water.

Does anyone have any idea what's actually going to be discussed at that summit?
I think just general issues, mostly trade.

In spite of my last post, I think it's still way too premature to adopt a defeatist attitude. The Project Freedom stunt and reversal from it is shaping up to look like an avoidable mistake, but not terribly costly unless victory/defeat is being measured in izzat. Blockade's still in place and no significant assets have been withdrawn from the region, now if THAT had changed even slightly then it would make sense to start looking for the blackpill bottle. As is, it seems like the clock is just being rewound to before the Project Freedom announcement dropped (so like...before the weekend).
Agreed. Its frustrating but its hardly an Iranian victory, they are still strangling.


It should be added, that the more time the US gives Iran, the more it can figure out how to strengthen its war machine and dig out missiles. Sure we can detect them, but the US is going to burn through more than if they just bombed Iran this weekend.
:roll:
Same. I am frustrated but Trvsting the Plan(tm) here. Trump doesn't seem to be inclined to cuck, and has more information than I do, so I'm willing to let my cake sit in the freezer for a little longer.

This could be another reason for the pause that's being overlooked. It seems Iran turned their jammers up to maximum to force ships to navigate blindly, which would be exceptionally dangerous in the shallower parts of the Strait.
Why Trump isn't just saying this and blaming Iran for being a bunch of terrorist shitheels trying to make boats crash is a separate question.
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@Burnt Fish nailed it; provided it is GPS jamming, putting out a statement confirming grants Iran both Izzat and confirmation its working. You never, ever give your enemy free battle damage assessment. Iran might suspect its GPS jamming but they can't be sure, so they don't know how well it is working and if they see your actions, don't know what you might be doing to counter it.

You might want to take a break if thirdie posting on X is getting you tilted. In the end Iran still has their ports blockaded, all functional relations with the rest of the gulf is severed (especially financial ones), and they aren't exactly fixing their water problem or the financial impact of no internet access.
Yup.


I am well aware of the water crisis hitting Iran, I'm not denying that it's a real, existential issue with major consequences if or when it becomes that bad, what I do have an issue with is that its going to happen this year, climate/environmental disasters very rarely will bring a nation down in one season, it takes years, possibly decades from now of the situation slowly getting worse to the point the state itself collapses.

You've had it explained before:

Last year, parts of Tehran ran out of water, as did several other towns and cities. There has not been enough rainfall or snowpack to meet water useage needs, they are going to deplete their aquifers again this year. There were already protests in Tehran about the water situation - they were just dispersed by handing out some free water, but the situaton for farmers got desperate, continues to get more desperate, and shows no signs of improving.

Then ontop of all this, they've just had their leadership bombed, their police bombed, their security apparatus demoralized. So the situation is worse than ever, and the government's ability to respond to civil unrest is the lowest its ever. This is not a recipe for success.

Also, regarding what the MSM/influencers/Telegramtards are talking about:
No one pro-regime is going to talk about Iran nearing collapse.
No one in the MSM is going to provide that level of analysis.
Virtually no influencers are going to both mentioning something that will be happening 4 months from now. Tht exceeds the attention spans of their audiences.
Trump isn't going talk about the massive humanitarian crisis the Iranian government will deal with over the summer and help them get sympathy.
The Regime isn't going to ask for help because it will make them look weak and it doesn't affect them directly. The southern part of the country still gets rainfall, they can just drill deeper or import water from elsewhere in the country for their own uses. the capital sinking almost a foot each year isn't something they have to worry about.

Even then I said while the summer will be spicy, currently odds favor the regime still being in control of the country post summer provided they survive the various Furies, but it's going to be a rough time keeping control.

Recommend, again, you go read this thread from the beginning. There were massive protests in Demember caused by the banks failing but had been brewing since fall due to the depleting water. It that is more than you care to do, accept you are too ill-informed to have a valid opinion.

Climate change and water scarcity can't BTFO 2/3rds of the Iranian high command in a single day.
Point of order: its not climate change causing this. Its Iran going from 9 to 90 million people over the past 100 years, and a shift from native staple crops to imported cash crops. they have been depleting their acquifiers past sustainable rates since the 60s if not before.

Or to spell that out a little more: Going from Arid-region adapted plants that will tolerate drought/high mineral soil and require less water to plants from other, wetter regions that are NOT adapted to arid conditions and will die if left unirrigated.

No matter who is running Iran, Total Muslim Death is going to need to be a governmental policy sooner rather than later.

You've asked this exact question in the thread previously and got answers, Repeatedly asking the same shit disingenuously just makes you an insufferable faggot.

He's not even the only person on this website you've engaged with who has this specific belief. And do you really need to have it explained to you why the Trump administration isn't yelling from the rooftops "we're hastening Iran toward a humanitarian disaster with food and water shortages", you're right, they stick to economic messaging, because that plays better on the world stage.

At some point continuing to ask these kinds of intentionally stupid questions like this you just make yourself repetitively look like a turbo-retard
They aren't sending their best.
"Iran is out of water. Their system is failing and failed last year"
"But Telegram tells me Iran is stronk and there are over 5.449.839,93 US casualities being hidden by the media! There is no way they could collapse!"
 
Iran's joint military command is now claiming the attacks on the UAE were false flags.
This may be the funniest thing ever.

I'm also angry over us stopping the operation, but at least we showed that we can open the strait. I think Trump is telling the truth about them reaching us.
 
Ostatnio edytowane:
The problem with the current posture is that there is a million reasonable reasons for the current course.

Unfortunately some of those reasonable reasons are huge signs of weakness.
That's a great & succinct way of summarizing what's going on.
Doomers need to chill the fuck out, but also its good to keep an abundance of caution.

A quagmire is where your costs are more than you wanted or can afford to pay, but you can't leave for any number of unrelated reasons. Iraq was a quagmire because we were losing a soldier or two every day for years on end, and spending 150 billion dollars a year (plus another 2x that in long term vet care). And we couldn't leave because Al Qaeda in Iraq would take over the country and turn it into the clusterfuck the Islamic State ended up becoming, and we had committed our national credibility to seeing it through.
You've nailed it. A quagmire is something you are stuck in and cannot leave. We could not leave Iraq, we could not leave Vietnam. We totally can leave Iran. We have no ground committments, they are already coopted by retarded terrorists.
 

It's over, Isntreal. I've already drawn Netanyahu as a soyjak. Btw sub to my patreon plssss im a one man operation!!!

Just quickly browsing through the comments, it's the same shit as always in normie spheres. If we're just a puppet state of Israel and only in that war because they say so, then that means we're losing if Israel is, right? I can't archive rn because I'm on my phone (and too retarded to figure out how to smash the video down to below 200mb)
 
Ostatnio edytowane:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=cnjcu_OD6yc
It's over, Isntreal. I've already drawn Netanyahu as a soyjak. Btw sub to my patreon plssss im a one man operation!!!

Just quickly browsing through the comments, it's the same shit as always in normie spheres. If we're just a puppet state of Israel and only in that war because they say so, then that means we're losing if Israel is, right? I can't archive rn because I'm on my phone (and too retarded to figure out how to smash the video down to below 200mb)
oh you weren't kidding, the absolute first thing out of this nigger retards mouth is begging for patreon gibs
 
https://youtube.com/watch?v=cnjcu_OD6yc
It's over, Isntreal. I've already drawn Netanyahu as a soyjak. Btw sub to my patreon plssss im a one man operation!!!

Just quickly browsing through the comments, it's the same shit as always in normie spheres. If we're just a puppet state of Israel and only in that war because they say so, then that means we're losing if Israel is, right? I can't archive rn because I'm on my phone (and too retarded to figure out how to smash the video down to below 200mb)
I'm convinced half of the comments are turd worlders.
 
https://youtube.com/watch?v=cnjcu_OD6yc
It's over, Isntreal. I've already drawn Netanyahu as a soyjak. Btw sub to my patreon plssss im a one man operation!!!

Just quickly browsing through the comments, it's the same shit as always in normie spheres. If we're just a puppet state of Israel and only in that war because they say so, then that means we're losing if Israel is, right? I can't archive rn because I'm on my phone (and too retarded to figure out how to smash the video down to below 200mb)
It’s also funny when people say that because if we were Israel’s puppet we would’ve destroyed Iran a long time ago. Yet we can force them to have cease fires when they want to kill more towel heads. They do have influence but if they had as much control as what people claim Iran would have ceased to exist decades ago.
 
It’s also funny when people say that because if we were Israel’s puppet we would’ve destroyed Iran a long time ago. Yet we can force them to have cease fires when they want to kill more towel heads. They do have influence but if they had as much control as what people claim Iran would have ceased to exist decades ago.
From my experience, most of the jewspergs on Instagram are either browns/Muslims or obvious bots. I imagine it's the same in YouTube too.
 
From my experience, most of the jewspergs on Instagram are either browns/Muslims or obvious bots. I imagine it's the same in YouTube too.
The majority of any group on the internet is going to be primarily browns, muslims, or bots. They have a serious headcount problem if you approach things at that angle. So I'd advise against waving away lines of thought based on that alone, lest you end up with nothing to think.

Afterall, most of the anti-jewspergs on the internet are either browns or paid shills or obvious bots as well. Why should it matter what you are when you're agreeing with hundreds of millions of israeli-worshipping jeets?
 
Trump ratchets up pressure and you retards piss and shit yourselves saying "it's over". Trump eases off the pressure and you retards piss and shit yourselves saying "it's over". Trump does nothing and you retards piss and shit yourselves saying "it's over".

"qUaGmIrE!" How about you faggots look up the definition and its root word. The US could pull up anchor and just leave if we wanted. We don't have any troops committed to anything. We aren't trying to hold possession of any Iranian land or assets. We were dropping bombs. We stopped dropping bombs. Tomorrow we could just as easily go drop bombs somewhere else if we wanted.

Trump has made it clear years ago that Asia is taking priority over the middle east and Europe. It's exactly why Trump has been so pissed over Europe refusing to put on its big girl pants these past few decades. Whatever he has going on with Chynuh is going to take precedence over ME shit and this is of zero surprise to anybody that has listened to what he's been saying for years now. He doesn't care (and rightly so) if Euro energy markets choke over this. They had the chance to do something about it and they chose incorrectly at every decision, including refusing to get involved with reopening the strait. Fuck 'em.
 
I'm tired of getting blue balled. What even is his angle here? Iran is currently the weakest they ever been, yet Trump keep flip-flopping on Bridges and Power Plants Day. The only thing I can think of is his obsession with wanting a Nobel Peace Prize for negotiating a deal with Iran. Let's see what come out of the Iran and China talks, but man my patience is running low.
 
The majority of any group on the internet is going to be primarily browns, muslims, or bots. They have a serious headcount problem if you approach things at that angle. So I'd advise against waving away lines of thought based on that alone, lest you end up with nothing to think.

Afterall, most of the anti-jewspergs on the internet are either browns or paid shills or obvious bots as well. Why should it matter what you are when you're agreeing with hundreds of millions of israeli-worshipping jeets?
It just pains me how obvious it is. Literally every single comment was an obvious brown/Muslim and one comment was from a tranny. Clown world.
 
The funny things is, the more economic damage Trump inflicts on Iran, the more they are going to have to recoup that otherwise theres a Trump-sized humanitarian crisis. An immediate deal doesn't solve the water crisis. You know whats going to be a quick injection of cash? A tollbooth for ships passing through for like 1-3 years.
 
Significant parity or near-parity casualties, years long campaigns, with no realistic exit.
The last part is okay but the partity/near-partiy casualities criteria isn't necessary. Iran has no realistic chance of inflicting more than a handful of casualties on the US militarily (unless Trump engages in the insanity of boots on the ground which one day I could see happening). The quagmire is the no realistic exit part combined with it being a generally bad situation to be in.

I'd refine the "no realistic exit", actually. I'd say it's where the exit costs something you aren't willing to pay. For Trump that's anything that looks like backing down or that the operation didn't achieve any objectives.

Right now, you have a situation where before Trump attacked the Strait was open to everybody and since he attacked it is closed. Realistically if Trump offered to withdraw, Iran would be happy to open the Strait again in return. But the cost is not having "won". Of people being able to cast Iran as the "winner". It's a quagmire because the before situation was better than the after situation and he his ways of getting back to the before situation are to either go back (political humiliation for him) or go on (a long bloody path, potentially).

That's my definition of a quagmire, not to do with casualties. After all, war isn't about who has the most people die, it's about who achieves their objectives. It's just an ongoing bad situation where you either can't exit or wont due to the cost to yourself.
 
Muslims killed and raped the peoples who actually made that stuff.
Your retarded goat-fucking deathcult you call a civilization goes back to 1979.
People acting like America is this super young country really grinds my gears. It's the oldest continuous government in the world today. No other surviving state has made it as long without occupation/major loss of territory and/or fundamental changes to their government. The Brits have gone through three states since American independence (ultra cucked having to add the "Northern" ahead of Ireland in their name lol).

By the Iranian logic, America can claim continuity from the Clovis culture:
1778044925546.png
American Projectile, 12,000 years old.
 
I have no idea where this retarded concept came from that pakistan is anyones friend, or that they are competent in any way at all
 
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