Iran Crisis & the 2026 War between Iran and the United States, Gulf States, and Israel - Please focus on news and coverage, not argumentation.

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Trump basically just said they could continue controlling the strait.
Let's calm down, dude. The blockade is still in effect, so in essence, we just go back to the status quo of two days ago.
Yeah, it's cringe that this happened so soon after it began, but it's nowhere close to just throwing up our hands and telling them they can do as they please.
 
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The browns are posting victory on X. Can't say I blame them given Trump is stupid enough to be trusting Pakistan again.
You might want to take a break if thirdie posting on X is getting you tilted. In the end Iran still has their ports blockaded, all functional relations with the rest of the gulf is severed (especially financial ones), and they aren't exactly fixing their water problem or the financial impact of no internet access. A kinetic resolution is probably preferable but because of Iran's own actions (bombing all their gulf neighbors and fucking with the ships) they're placed themselves into a position where this current play is way more effective than it would have ever been otherwise.

My guess is that regime change was mostly a 'would be nice' when the war started to becoming pretty neccesary given how deranged the Iranian political leadership has acted. Hence blockade + regional freezing out to make the situation for the average Iranian so unbearable (hyperinflation, no jobs, and forced unequal rationing) to start off another set of protests which probably will also restart the bombing of IRGC assets.
 
My guess is that regime change was mostly a 'would be nice' when the war started to becoming pretty neccesary given how deranged the Iranian political leadership has acted. Hence blockade + regional freezing out to make the situation for the average Iranian so unbearable (hyperinflation, no jobs, and forced unequal rationing) to start off another set of protests which probably will also restart the bombing of IRGC assets.
If the bombing restarts, it’s gonna be after the Beijing summit and the Iranian FM heads back home. Idk why people are getting antsy over it.
 
If the bombing restarts, it’s gonna be after the Beijing summit and the Iranian FM heads back home. Idk why people are getting antsy over it.
Does anyone have any idea what's actually going to be discussed at that summit?
I haven't really been paying attention, but I assume Xi is going to try to convince Trump to let them have Taiwan again, and Trump is going to try to convince Xi to force Iran to give up their uranium.
 
People need to take a breathe. The only thing that changed over the past 48 hours is the US Navy proved it could escort cargo ships through the strait and defeat Iranian attempts to stop it. Yes it would be nice if that meant the start of daily convoys, but for whatever reason they decided that's not in the cards right now. Could be as stated above that the shipping companies decided that they were still afraid and didn't want to risk it so Trump decided not to put US assets at risk every day just for show.

Either way the blockade was in place 2 days ago, and it's still in place now. People caterwauling about Trump giving up the strait to Iran need to take a xanax.
 
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The browns are posting victory on X. Can't say I blame them given Trump is stupid enough to be trusting Pakistan again.
In spite of my last post, I think it's still way too premature to adopt a defeatist attitude. The Project Freedom stunt and reversal from it is shaping up to look like an avoidable mistake, but not terribly costly unless victory/defeat is being measured in izzat. Blockade's still in place and no significant assets have been withdrawn from the region, now if THAT had changed even slightly then it would make sense to start looking for the blackpill bottle. As is, it seems like the clock is just being rewound to before the Project Freedom announcement dropped (so like...before the weekend).
 
Let's calm down, dude. The blockade is still in effect, so in essence, we just go back to the status quo of two days ago.
Yeah, it's cringe that this happened so soon after it began, but it's nowhere close to just throwing up our hands and telling them they can do as they please.
Yeah, but it's also a good indication that he gets very easily spooked by the prospect of casualties, and the IRGC will absolutely exploit that to the utmost. He mogged Iran into a ceasefire after the F-15 crew almost got captured because he's probably scared it's going to happen again. He's obviously not going to do boots on the ground, or we'd have a fuckton more people in the theater already. He does a big song and dance about getting a naval umbrella in place to get ships out of the Gulf, then stops the whole thing the very next day after destroyers had to take a bunch of incoming fire to get two US-flagged ships out, and came out of it without a scratch.

If he'd simply said, "we're keeping the blockade in place until Iran gets serious about bringing this to a close," and just left it at that, there'd be some general anxiety but it would be a signal that the US had a clear objective. It would be understood that, at some point, Iran's economy would either tip over and go completely in the shitter, or Vahidi would get frustrated and do something stupid to break out. CENTCOM can plan around that and get contingencies in place to account for those scenarios. They can get guys rotated out that have been in theater for months and get fresh bodies in. Your glowies can do glowie shit to keep things from getting settled.

What starts to piss off the brass, and especially guys in the ranks, is when the CiC can't even keep an operation going for more than 48 hours without changing his mind, just because some ships had to employ the very shit they're specifically armed with to keep from getting sunk. I guarantee just about every sailor in the Lincoln carrier group is thinking right now, "why the fuck did you waste our time with this, you stupid nigger? Quit playing grab-ass and let us do our job, one way or the other."
 
I’m glad I checked my stock accounts before reading this thread. The TACO posting makes me laugh when somehow gas prices in my area are down and my stock accounts are the highest they’ve ever been. I don’t know how Donnie is managing this but he is. Baby Jesus loves a winner.
 
As is, it seems like the clock is just being rewound to before the Project Freedom announcement dropped (so like...before the weekend).
I kept saying he should have announced this last Friday lol.
Yeah, but it's also a good indication that he gets very easily spooked by the prospect of casualties, and the IRGC will absolutely exploit that to the utmost. He mogged Iran into a ceasefire after the F-15 crew almost got captured because he's probably scared it's going to happen again.
Which is admirable in its own way. You don't want a leader who just sends his troops into the meat grinder. But there has to be a balance of risk somewhere.
I’m glad I checked my stock accounts before reading this thread. The TACO posting makes me laugh when somehow gas prices in my area are down and my stock accounts are the highest they’ve ever been. I don’t know how Donnie is managing this but he is. Baby Jesus loves a winner.
Line simply refuses to go down. It's a law of nature.
 
It should be added, that the more time the US gives Iran, the more it can figure out how to strengthen its war machine and dig out missiles. Sure we can detect them, but the US is going to burn through more than if they just bombed Iran this weekend.
:roll:
 
I predict this war will end in a stalemate with the Islamic Regime severely weakened but retaining control over Iran. I'd like to see them toppled, but the Trump admin is a clownshow that's neither willing nor competent enough to actually pull it off. Iran might be thrashing around like a self-destructive retard, but the developed world nowadays is completely averse to fighting, let alone winning wars. Israel and the gulf states will be forced to sign a few gay deals, and then Trump will declare victory - without denuclearization or any of the other objectives being achieved. The pre-war status quo will return until hostilities resume again years down the line. In the meantime, diaspora Iranians will continue screeching at the high heavens and posting emotional AI slop about the monarchy's inevitable return or something. It's a depressing situation, and I'd be happy to be proven wrong.
I think you really are Bangladesh and you can fuck off to protesting your government again. You're government fucked over Myanmar.

Educated guess: “If you force Iran to agree to our deal, we’ll lift the blockade and give you some oil + AI chips”. Taiwan won’t be discussed.
Taiwan will not be discussed and even if its brought up its gonna be gay with Winnie the Pooh saying its always been part of China. This is despite Taiwan relations have gone to shit since Hong Kong yellow umbrella movement.
 
I thought an interesting realism-adjacent way to balance it would be to make the GLA holes immune to air strikes. So you air can take the building out of whack for a few minutes but never destroy it completely.
Well, that sort of thing was why the GLA buildings all had holes and auto-rebuild, as well as no power plants.

But you're quite right. At the end of the day, its a hell of a lot easier for a Raptor to take out a ton of quad cannons than it is for a ton of quad cannons to take out a Raptor.
Force them to live in Marine Barracks and do pushups. :smug:
A guy I know who was in the Corps told a story from bootcamp about how a guy who had joined the Navy leaped over the fence separating the two training areas in a poorly planned attempt to ditch everything. They decided to keep the guy around for a week of Marine PT before sending him back in lieu of any more serious and official consequences.

Talk about cruel and unusual punishment for sure.
Line simply refuses to go down. It's a law of nature.
The ceasefire gave the markets time to start pricing things in.
 
This could be another reason for the pause that's being overlooked. It seems Iran turned their jammers up to maximum to force ships to navigate blindly, which would be exceptionally dangerous in the shallower parts of the Strait.
Why Trump isn't just saying this and blaming Iran for being a bunch of terrorist shitheels trying to make boats crash is a separate question.
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Pakistan needs to fucking glassed hard. Trump is a retard for listening to them, the reason it dropped is because there's less fear in the markets now that we know ships aren't going to be fired upon, but hey we're dealing with a literal death cult that wants to fucking nuke us so don't take anything up to chance. Trump should have let the Jeets nuke eachother the world would have been better off.
Pakistan is 340,509 square miles in area. A 20 kiloton bomb such as those dropped on Japan during WWII destroyed a 10 square mile area in each city. In order to "glass" Pakistan, it would require 34,051 of the bombs dropped during WWII.

Do we have bigger bombs now? Yes, we do, but we simply don't have enough in stock to do the job. On top of that, the larger the bomb, the higher the mushroom cloud goes into the air, and the further the fallout will spread. There is a reason (other than Cold War reasons) that no country, no matter how angry or bloodthirsty, has attempted such a thing after WWII. The price tag for total nuclear annihilation is simply too high, in both dollars and in worldwide environmental consequences. Regular bombs such as incendiary bombs are much cheaper and have less of a detrimental effect on surrounding countries, so that is why they're still our go-to bombs in modern warfare. It would still be very expensive and impractical to "glass" even the smaller countries like Pakistan with incendiary bombs. That's why it hasn't happened already.
 
Pakistan is 340,509 square miles in area. A 20 kiloton bomb such as those dropped on Japan during WWII destroyed a 10 square mile area in each city. In order to "glass" Pakistan, it would require 34,051 of the bombs dropped during WWII.

Do we have bigger bombs now? Yes, we do, but we simply don't have enough in stock to do the job. On top of that, the larger the bomb, the higher the mushroom cloud goes into the air, and the further the fallout will spread. There is a reason (other than Cold War reasons) that no country, no matter how angry or bloodthirsty, has attempted such a thing after WWII. The price tag for total nuclear annihilation is simply too high, in both dollars and in worldwide environmental consequences. Regular bombs such as incendiary bombs are much cheaper and have less of a detrimental effect on surrounding countries, so that is why they're still our go-to bombs in modern warfare. It would still be very expensive and impractical to "glass" even the smaller countries like Pakistan with incendiary bombs. That's why it hasn't happened already.
Counterargument: Worth it.
 
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