It just feels so suspect. You just happen to get an attack against one of the west's pet minorities. This attack is sourced from a politically expedient aggressor who (apparently) decided to drive for literal days for nebulous reasons, only to completely flub it. Meanwhile, the government refuses to provide concrete evidence of a manifesto (that cannot be found by anyone else) which should, in theory, be a slam dunk against three or four groups they want to suppress (incels, gun owners, Alberta separatists, possibly white men?)
The only reason I'm not going all-in on it being bullshit is because the Canadian government is notoriously incompetent, and they really could be that stupid.