Iran Crisis & the 2026 War between Iran and the United States, Gulf States, and Israel - Please focus on news and coverage, not argumentation.

[Stoneheart]

But of course that all assumes the Taiwanese just use what's on the Kinmen Islands in Xiamen Bay to shell Xiamen in retaliation, a city of a few million people, one of the world's biggest shipping ports, and one of China's first Special Economic Zones. The loss of izzat face would be incalculable.

They dont have the forces to do it anyway, their army is in rough shape and the only motivated troops need to stay around the capital to prevent a coup.

Iran has started selling oil and natural gas to Pakistan via railway now.

That means Trump is very motivated to take out the railroad next round

 

[Clyde Cash's Left Teste]

It wouldn't. Turkey would never permit it because it would immediately spill over to civil war in turkey.

That's assuming if Turkey would have the power to stop it happening

 

[Ghostse]

Wyświetl załącznik 9073548
Iran has started selling oil and natural gas to Pakistan via railway now. I hope the media clowns Trump over this and hammers him hard. What a stupid idea to trust Pakistan with anything. How retarded do you have do be for jeets to show you the art of the deal?

This is absolutely nothing new. They were selling oil and LPG this way before the straight of homoz got blockaded. The rail lines into Pakistan are utter shit, the port that is the destination is tiny, and the rail line can't even match the throughput of a single tanker.

That means Trump is very motivated to take out the railroad next round

Bridge and Power Plant Day. please. Please Mr. President. I beg you.

That's assuming if Turkey would have the power to stop it happening

Turkey has a large army and modern jet fighters + control of the Bosphorus. Damn skippy they have the power to stop it. Sadly.

Sigh. why do we keep letting muslims control these maritime chokepoints?

 

[Myrtle the Turtle]

Americans Injured in Iranian Missile Strike on Kuwaiti Air Base​

https://www.livemint.com/news/ameri...trike-on-kuwaiti-air-base-11780116518473.html | Archive

An Iranian ballistic missile strike on a Kuwaiti air base within the past 24 hours caused minor injuries to several Americans and seriously damaged two MQ-9 Reaper strike drones... One Reaper was destroyed and at least one other was seriously damaged.

The biggest loser of the conflict is the MQ-9 Reaper. At a price tag of $30 million, the US is going to need to develop far cheaper alternatives. Nearly every mission over Iran guarantees at least one loss. Thats better than loosing an MQ-4 Global Hawk or F-16, but loosing such an expensive assets is not a viable strategy, even for the US. The fucking Houthis managed to take down 7 of these.

 

[Jose Beaner Luna]

I really do hate this. For one thing it depicts the Mongols as some force of unique evil that afflicted itself on the loli Muslims who were totally uwu and innocent.

I bet it will completely ignore how the Muslims provoked the Mongols by killing their ambassadors and trade represantives.

And I will bet BIG money they wont mention for a second how the Mongol advance across Asia was finally halted by the Marches of Austria and Moravia during the campaigns of 1241 and 1242.

The Catholic Church even called a crusade against the Mongols shortly after the clash with Austria. It petered out though due to the Mongol Empire falling into disunity over a succession crisis, thus making the need to do something less urgent.

Bet nobody here was ever told that either in history class

Mongols were heroes for killing sandniggers and indians, their only mistake was not finishing the job, speaking off, Nontent Donnie still losing izzat to PakisCHAD.

 

[Lapsus of the bepsus]

That wallet is just a file of very long and complex unique numbers.
When you have access to nation-state level "fuck you" tools all sorts of fun options become available, from taking over the node of workers by adding 51+% of the current node capacity, to using PoW network ananlysis to ID wallet owners and parties in transactions
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2018/03/20/nsa-worked-track-down-bitcoin-users-snowden-documents-reveal So depending on the coin/network, just working back on the number is possible.

However, real life is super gay and lame.
Its more likely one of two scenarios (or possibly a combination of both) transpired;
1) System compromise and file copy. The coins numbers in the wallet are long but human-transcribable. Camera phone + OCR + read-access to the file = stolen coins.
2) More likely: "Hello less retarded Iranian. Would you like to help us at the CIA yeet Iran's crypto wallets in exchange for Skyhook and 1% of the recovered wallet value?"

it doesnt even take nation state level fuck you tools to trace down the ownership of a bitcoin wallet, but stealing it is a different beast. most wallet management software will encrypt the private key with a password so you cant simply view and screenshot it. breaking the rsa or aes 256 ciphers is still not really feasible even for nation state actors, decrypting rsa may become a possibility in a few years with more advanced quantum computers capable of computing discrete logarithms in polynomial time to reverse engineer the large primes the private and public keys are derived from. aes 256 is the industry standard symmetrical cipher most likely used (as in there is no sane reason to use anything else) to symmetrically encrypt the key in storage by the wallet manager, and it is quantum resistant.

real life is indeed super gay and lame so an even more boring but amusingly stupid third scenario is what almost certainly happened: as @mindlessobserver pointed out, iran uses binance, which has a us branch subject to us law, and some part of irans bitcoin trading network therefore has the wallets stored and managed by an american company. the feds simply sent them an order to seize irans wallets.

 

[Ghostse]

Americans Injured in Iranian Missile Strike on Kuwaiti Air Base​

https://www.livemint.com/news/ameri...trike-on-kuwaiti-air-base-11780116518473.html | Archive

The biggest loser of the conflict is the MQ-9 Reaper. At a price tag of $30 million, the US is going to need to develop far cheaper alternatives. Nearly every mission over Iran guarantees at least one loss. Thats better than loosing an MQ-4 Global Hawk or F-16, but loosing such an expensive assets is not a viable strategy, even for the US. The fucking Houthis managed to take down 7 of these.

The MIC has gotchu fam.

https://www.slashgear.com/1653644/reaper-drone-replacement-details-mq-next/

The MQ-Next and the Gambit are already working on being ready for getting attrited, and the MQ-20 is going to take over the high-capacity missions.

But also let me inject some reality here with Pentagon Accounting and how $30 million isn't really $30 million.

When the US Military buys anything: a tank, a plane, a missile, a gun, practically down to the bullet, it buys along with it a support contract. Think the extended warranty at Best Buy - it includes spare parts servicing, maintenance, and for most systems what ammounts to a degree of insurance in terms of replacement cost.

That is, that MQ-9A that got acked cost about 15 million, but the support contract can be folded to a new airframe.

The reason why I said "15 million" and anticipated replacement cost is "30 million" is because the USAF is sending into harm's way MQ-9A drones, which are end of life and out of production. The MQ-9B is virtually identical and still in production for international customers and non-military US government customers (CBP & NASA, mostly). The $30 million price tage is based off General Atomic's estimate given to the Airforce and relayed to congress, of what General Atomics would charge the USAF for a fully-kitted MQ-9B right now - so this includes capabilities beyond the MQ-9A (longer range, more payload) plus a "immediacy" charge becasue the USAF would be line-jumping other customers. If the USAF requested a MQ-9B closer in capability to a MQ-9A, the cost would be much less, and capabilities could be reduced to reduce the cost, but exact numbers have not been discussed.

Additionally, the MQ-9A lines have been shut for less than a year and could be brought to service should the DoD deem it necessary.

there are also MQ-9As in the bone yard and other storage facilities that could be returned to service for much less than 30 million.

Mongols were heroes for killing sandniggers and indians, their only mistake was not finishing the job, speaking off, Nontent Donnie still losing izzat to PakisCHAD.

The other thing to take note of is that the Mongols are a rare case of history being written by the defeated.
Ghengis and Ogadai encouraged rumors and stories that painted mongols as blood thirsty demons and monsters, so that the conquered would be too terrified to resist and neighbors would be too terrified of them to fight.

Ghengis was a smart man and preferred trade to war. But if you wouldn't trade with him, he'd murder you, take your territory, and have some one put in charge who would - he had no tolerance for bullshit. And if his caravans were interferred with, you'd best believe something will be done about it. IF you don't, the Great Khan will.

 

[penava]

Wyświetl załącznik 9073548Iran has started selling oil and natural gas to Pakistan via railway now. I hope the media clowns Trump over this and hammers him hard. What a stupid idea to trust Pakistan with anything. How retarded do you have do be for jeets to show you the art of the deal?

More trains in Pakistan = more muslim jeets getting run over, this is the 5D chess at play. TRVST THE PLVN!

The biggest loser of the conflict is the MQ-9 Reaper. At a price tag of $30 million, the US is going to need to develop far cheaper alternatives. Nearly every mission over Iran guarantees at least one loss. Thats better than loosing an MQ-4 Global Hawk or F-16, but loosing such an expensive assets is not a viable strategy, even for the US. The fucking Houthis managed to take down 7 of these.

I'm more inclined to say that it's a victim of the particular circumstances of this conflict than a loser on its own. As I understand it, it keeps getting shot down because it's medium-altitude, only capable of 300mph and not stealth. It performs better in active confrontations where it supports manned craft and air defense is actively being hunted down, as opposed to noncommital will-they-wont-they slapfighting.

 

[Maori Kiwifruit Growers]

Wyświetl załącznik 9071944 Wyświetl załącznik 9071945
https://www.al-monitor.com/original...faults-us-president-failed-iran-regime-change | https://archive.is/P2e4F
Supposedly we were all ready and prepared to have the Kurds storm the gates of Tehran until Erdogan sperged out at Trump and stopped the operation. Erdogan is barely hanging on by a thread as Turkey has persistent inflation and protests against the leader in Ankara. Blumpfs narcissism and ego have proven to be incredible vulnerabilities to US security during this conflict regarding the jeets and Russians. Im no fan of Ukraine, but both Putin and the jeets led Trump on with the promise of a deal and wasted months of pointless negoriating. He easily got roped into a cyrpto scam and the Trump phone grift as evidence of domestic weaknesses too. Does this mean the walls are closing in? No, but its definately his archillies heel.

Honestly between this shit and his public love for hamas 'n co, it's time to "ensure he doesn't get re elected". I know many MANY Turks who are just sick of his shit and don't know who he's aligning himself with. But I think that as long as bibi is in power so will Erdogan. Bibi CANNOT be the only strong figure in the middle east (who actually will do something). Also, turkey is part of NATO and for as much as we shit on NATO it does tether them from being absolutely retarded.

Trump was caught with his pants down about the "no boots on the ground" being needed. His air force chief of staff assured him we could totally bomb the Iranians into submission. They were not however, bombed into submission. Scrambling ensued. The 82nd Airborne Division headquarters, national guard artillery regiments and two Marine Expeditionary units were mobilized while Epic Fury was still going on.

Straight remained closed in the interim. Trump then wanted to know what it would take to open the straight. the Division commander of the 82nd Airborne gave him the bad news. More troops then what you have given me with this emergency deployment. So now a third MEU is en route to the middle east, and the US Army and Air Force has quietly activated more guard units.

In fact, I am noticing an unprecedented level of deployment of the National Guard to the CENTCOM area. Along with the quiet deployment of a third MEU, it speaks to a larger strategy I am seeing of "Look at what the right hand is doing, and not what the left is doing". Nobody pays attention to National Guard and Air National Guard Deployments.

Sending the headquarters company of the 82nd Airborne? National news. Deploying the 3rd Battalion, 172nd Infantry Regiment of the Vermont National Guard? Did even VERMONT notice?

Give me more sources because right now I'm hard in public and it's not just because of all the shicksa.

But if you are correct this is classic international relations that I love. Where are you noticing all this?

nsa cia etc have loads of guys whose entire job is coming up with new techniques aimed at compromising and gaining control over hostile (iranian) computer systems
these guys were able to sabotage irans nuclear program with malware (stuxnet) 15 years ago, snatching crypto wallets is basically childs play compared to that.

The Israelis are the only people who can take the NSA/us government on. So when both are focused on a particular goal, it will be accomplished. The issue is that they are both so worried about high tech they leave a gap for low tech.

 

[Ghostse]

I'm more inclined to say that it's a victim of the particular circumstances of this conflict than a loser on its own. As I understand it, it keeps getting shot down because it's medium-altitude, only capable of 300mph and not stealth. It performs better in active confrontations where it supports manned craft and air defense is actively being hunted down, as opposed to noncommital will-they-wont-they slapfighting.

The other issue is that the drone is a visual connection only. When a human-piloted craft is getting fired on by gun-based AA, you will know it from feeling concussive forces of near-misses, you will feel the airframe getting chewed up. A MQ-9 you won't necessarily know you're being fired on until the airframe goes unresponsive.

It also lacks advanced threat detection radar - aka it won't necessarily know its about to be targeted until SIGNAL LOST

 

[Hannibalistique]

Wyświetl załącznik 9073007
Null, I have a crazy idea on how to pay for all the new hardware you need to fight the tranny DDoSers. We need our most experienced doxers to go after Iran's financial networks.

I was wondering why Tor was so fast now (haven't used it since last DDoS attacks on the 'farms), but TPTB boosting it with more nodes to support leaks from Irani dissidents makes a lot of sense.
Since the Navy can't land people, at least they can support their other projects (like Tor).

 

[penava]

it doesnt even take nation state level fuck you tools to trace down the ownership of a bitcoin wallet, but stealing it is a different beast. most wallet management software will encrypt the private key with a password so you cant simply view and screenshot it. breaking the rsa or aes 256 ciphers is still not really feasible even for nation state actors, decrypting rsa may become a possibility in a few years with more advanced quantum computers capable of computing discrete logarithms in polynomial time to reverse engineer the large primes the private and public keys are derived from. aes 256 is the industry standard symmetrical cipher most likely used (as in there is no sane reason to use anything else) to symmetrically encrypt the key in storage by the wallet manager, and it is quantum resistant.

For what it's worth, the NSA did bribe their way into getting a mathematical backdoor into the standard RSA library's default random number generator in the 2000s as a part of their program to decrypt internet traffic.

Don't worry, they've pinky promised to not mess with standards organizations since the program's existence got leaked by Snowden.

 

[Unredacted TND]

Vance assures us. If he pulls this off it will be good for 2028.

 

[Lapsus of the bepsus]

For what it's worth, the NSA did bribe their way into getting a mathematical backdoor into the standard RSA library's default random number generator in the 2000s as a part of their program to decrypt internet traffic.
Wyświetl załącznik 9074106
Don't worry, they've pinky promised to not mess with standards organizations since the program's existence got leaked by Snowden.

tbf until 2000 the original rsa implementation was patented and commercially licensed so adoption was limited. even now its still proprietary and almost everyone uses open sores implementations instead. though as we know with open source the issue is now large corporations "contributing" to the codebase quietly trying to enshittify the product or turn it into pajeetware. you cant trust entities like jewgle, microshit or intel not to do the glowies bidding and insert backdoors while giving them plausible deniability.

rsa has been superseded by elliptic curves anyway, although those are still generally not quantum safe.

Vance assures us. If he pulls this off it will be good for 2028.

is he retarded? i understand he didnt want this war but iran is all but admitting that they arent negotiating in good faith whatsoever, starting with the constant hezbollah sperging, constantly dodging the nuke question, demanding billions as a preliminary condition to even begin any talks, and continuing to fuck around with the strait and their "persian gulf authority" larp.

 

[teriyakiburns]

The biggest loser of the conflict is the MQ-9 Reaper. At a price tag of $30 million, the US is going to need to develop far cheaper alternatives.

This is relative. The total UK defence budget is approximately 62bb GBP. There's no easy way to break it down by service, but it's presumable that the largest share goes to the RN, so you'd have to guess no more than 20bb for the RAF. A Reaper, at approximately 26 million GBP, is a pretty pricy proposition from that budget. We flew 20 reapers from the early 2000s until 2025, when they were retired and replaced with protector. They were kept flying for 25 years because they were so expensive compared to the available budget.

The USAF, meanwhile, spends around 60 million every month just on food, out of budget three times the size of the entire British defence budget (195bb just for the airforce). 30 mil per unit is pocket change for the americans.

Actually, funny thing. The USAF budget is very nearly (uk budget) ⋅ π.

 

[Hannibalistique]

For what it's worth, the NSA did bribe their way into getting a mathematical backdoor into the standard RSA library's default random number generator in the 2000s as a part of their program to decrypt internet traffic.
Wyświetl załącznik 9074106
Don't worry, they've pinky promised to not mess with standards organizations since the program's existence got leaked by Snowden.

You're way out of date, NSA is now pushing broken post-quantum shit to ruin all encrypted communications (and based on Google's biased recent pushes seem to be winning): https://blog.cr.yp.to/20251004-weakened.html (and the 6 other parts of the recent NSA and IETF shenanigans at https://blog.cr.yp.to/)

 

[ThisIsGonnaBeGood]

is he retarded? i understand he didnt want this war but iran is all but admitting that they arent negotiating in good faith whatsoever, starting with the constant hezbollah sperging, constantly dodging the nuke question, demanding billions as a preliminary condition to even begin any talks, and continuing to fuck around with the strait and their "persian gulf authority" larp.

I don't think he's actually been involved in negotiations since the failure that was Islamabad. He just has a series of vaguely positive comments he bandies about whenever he's asked.

 

[ShitLurker]

is he retarded? i understand he didnt want this war but iran is all but admitting that they arent negotiating in good faith whatsoever, starting with the constant hezbollah sperging, constantly dodging the nuke question, demanding billions as a preliminary condition to even begin any talks, and continuing to fuck around with the strait and their "persian gulf authority" larp.

The jeet from his wife must be fucking with his brain. I'm just amazed at how everything started great, massed precision decapitation strikes. Then suddenly cold faggy feet? Why? You already called the Thunder, let the lightning strike dammit!

And with how proud Trump is, I simply cannot believe he's letting himself be clowned on so hard by a bunch of goat fuckers "you'll be really really sorry" *nothing happens* *urka durka intensifies*.

 

[Mr. Racewar1488]

According to a report by NBC News, the U.S. F-15E Strike Eagle shot down over southwestern Iran last month was likely hit by a Chinese-made shoulder-fired MANPADS, according to sources familiar with the investigation.

NBC further reported that China may have supplied Iran with a YLC-8B long-range early-warning radar system capable of detecting stealth aircraft at extended ranges.


All three Armenian Air Force Su-30SM Multirole Fighters were spotted carrying two Iranian-made Yasin guided glide bomb munitions each.

Seizure of a 5-ton shipment of smuggled chicken in Ilam

Early this morning, a 5-ton shipment of live chicken that smugglers intended to take out of the province via Darreh Shahr and sell in Khuzestan province was seized with the cooperation of relevant Ilam authorities.

The seized shipment was immediately handed over to the Darreh Shahr slaughterhouse to ensure stable food security for the people and to be distributed to the public at the approved price.

In this regard, a legal case has been filed against one individual and sent to the provincial government disciplinary court for legal proceedings.
@TasnimNews

Iranian authorities have arrested the Chicken Smuggler of Ilam!

Why every likely agreement with Iran is a humiliation and strategic defeat for Trump

#بازتاب_جنگ
Interview with Dani Sitrinovich, senior Middle East analyst and Atlantic Council researcher, with The New Yorker

1. Strategic failure in overthrowing
The war started to topple Iran but ended up strengthening Iran's sovereignty

2. Iran in a position of power and unyielding
The bombings could not force Iran to surrender. Iran, understanding the existential battle, has used some of its cards

3. Trump's strategic deadlock
Trump is caught between bad and worse and fears escalating the war and economic costs on the eve of the elections

4. Paralysis of the global economy
Iran activated the paralyzing leverage of Hormuz. Its reopening is now the main bargaining chip in negotiations

5. Collapse of Netanyahu's doctrine
Netanyahu promised to finish the job with Iran, but Iran remained stronger with missile capability and anti-Western stance

6. The biggest strategic mistake of the century
Trump's withdrawal from the JCPOA without an alternative strategy led to Iran's nuclear progress and weakened pro-Western factions

7. Summary
Any probable agreement is an attempt for a dignified exit from a war that has shifted the balance of power in favor of Iran

@Khabar_Graphic
@TasnimNews

The walls are closing in on Trump and Iran has won this war.

17 billion cubic meters of water stored in Khuzestan dams

CEO of Khuzestan Water and Power Organization: Currently, Dez, Karun 3 and 4, and Shahid Abbaspour dams are fully filled with water.
@TasnimNews

There's plenty of water, water riots are cancelled.

2 terrorists killed in armed clash with border guards

Commander of the FARAJA Border Guard:
‌ Last night, several members of opposition groups attempted to attack one of the border guard units in Chaldoran County, but the border guards, with alertness and operational and field readiness, thwarted their plan.

The brave border guards, with operational readiness, intelligence oversight, and control, identified the members of this group before they entered the country and responded decisively to these group members with heavy and intense fire.

During this armed clash, 2 members of this group were killed, and technical investigations at the border indicate that several others were wounded and fled to the territory of the opposing country.

One M16 rifle, 5 related magazines, 2 hand grenades, a phone, and a backpack containing individual equipment were discovered from the terrorists.
@TasnimNews

Iranian border guards killed two possibly Kurd militiamen on the border with Turkey and Azerbaijan.

94 tons of hoarded rice discovered in Baqershahr

Inspectors from the Rey County Guild Chamber, in a special operation, succeeded in identifying a large hoarding warehouse in the Baqershahr area and discovered 94 tons of rice worth 390 billion rials, which they handed over to the Governmental Penalties Organization.
@TasnimNews

More hoarded food and rials found.


NYT reports that a part of the draft MoU is a reconstruction and investment fund. Trump Tower Tehran by 2030!


The Iranian Army says the intercepted drone last was an Israeli-American "Orbiter" drone, which was successfully shot down by the Army Air Defenses in the Qeshm region.


Omani Maritime Security Centre:

Due to the sighting of a floating object suspected to be a naval mine west of the Inshore Traffic Zone in the Strait of Hormuz within Omani territorial sea, the Maritime Security Centre urges all seafarers, fishermen, and vessels to exercise the utmost caution while navigating in the area.

All maritime users are advised to keep a safe distance from any suspicious objects and report them immediately to the relevant authorities.

 

[ThisIsGonnaBeGood]

And with how proud Trump is, I simply cannot believe he's letting himself be clowned on so hard by a bunch of goat fuckers "you'll be really really sorry" *nothing happens* *urka durka intensifies*.

The level of long-reaching damage Obama winning that Peace Prize has resulted in has gone beyond even my imagination.