- Dołączono
- 10 Kwi 2023
Iran Crisis & the 2026 War between Iran and the United States, Gulf States, and Israel - Please focus on news and coverage, not argumentation.
- Twórca wątku Mister Fister
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- Dołączono
- 27 Mar 2026
- Dołączono
- 4 Lis 2017
I want to point of order on this:
Trump says there was a "gift" for Iran on the tanker, implied to be some sort of shipment of military-useful items, and he said it could be from China.
We don't know the item, or the origin and all we have to go on for its existence is Trump's word to journoscum. It could not exist, be fairly innocuous, or could be something like Bitcoin ASICS which would be sanction violating but hardly a weapon like never seen before.
My personal head cannon is that Trump is trying to get Xi to go on another round of paranoid purging trying to find out who sold weapons to Iran before his meeting.
"Unlike earlier phases of the conflict—which targeted sites deeper inside Iran—these new options would involve a more concentrated campaign around key maritime chokepoints."Wyświetl załącznik 8903513
U.S. military officials are preparing new contingency plans in case the ceasefire with Iran collapses, with a strong focus on operations around the Strait of Hormuz, CNN reports.
The plans emphasize “dynamic targeting” of Iran’s capabilities in the Strait of Hormuz, the southern Arabian Gulf, and the Gulf of Oman, including potential strikes on fast attack boats, minelaying vessels, and other asymmetric assets that Tehran has used to disrupt shipping and exert pressure on the U.S.
What the fuck?! so we're going to be bombing Iran again but it STILL won't be bridge and powerplant day?! This is the gayest timeline.
#notmypresident
As was explained to me by SOURCES FAMILIAR WITH THE MATTER:
Lebanon has elected its most anti-Hezbollah government of the past 20 years. They are actually working to unfuck the armed forces and rearm them. If there was a moment to go ass rape Hezbollah, this is probably that moment.
The issue for Lebanon is that well, firstly their army is Arabs and thus utterly garbage at war and very likely to rout. But they would be absolutely, 100% dependent on the IDF for this to have any hope of success and it would likely be a long affair to stamp out Hezbollah (you know, without just going full Genghis).
Lebanon knows that if they start Total Hezbollah Death and the Jews do the most typically jewish thing they could ever do and betray the goyim by going home, they will be absolutely and utterly fucked and suck in a civil war that they cannot win, but also the IDF will likely airstrike to point they couldn't lose.
So the lebanese government is trying to get the IDF to do as much of their fighting for them as possible, without just turning the jews loose. Also issues that by displacing large populations of Shiites and Palestinians, camel fucking terrorists are now spreading through the country.
I agree, sort of. I get the game.
to tl;dr, there was an interview by an Iraqi general about Desert Storm, and he said (paraphrasing) "We didn't believe the Americans would actually attack, they were too calm in negotiations". Basically you can look at IRGC deranged twitter, making claims so outlandish only the local BRICStards believe them, because that is how sand niggers negotiate.
Iran claiming the entire UAE needs to be evacuated, etc etc etc. Basically if you aren't thumping the table and screaming at them, you are clearly just not all that invested.
So by threatening Bridge and Powerplant day (and I really don't think Trump was bluffing) he was just negotiating in a way the Iranians understand. And I mean it kinda worked; they got alerted by the egyptians Bridge and Powerplant day party supplies were inbound and they capituated.
Where I think Trumped fucked up was by letting this drag on too long when Iran is very clearly not holding to terms. Before, his talk of bridge and powerplant day was a potent threat, now it just sounds like toothless bluster.
Haha the weak Americans will soon run out of fingers to break, and then I will be victorious.
Death of an Ego
kiwifarms.net
- Dołączono
- 13 Gru 2022
I know it doesn't matter what my ass thinks about all this, but I'm getting doubly tired of people champing at their bits for a resumption of hostilities. All you fuckheads wanting bridge and powerplant day fail to see how hypocritical that would make the US and the administration look, when one of the factors going in to all of this was stopping the regime terrorizing their own population. How would wrecking their entire shit help the Iranians?
The regime isn't going to tolerate anything that makes them look weak, that's just the way things go in those countries. Honor and face are everything. That's why no US admin has tried to deal with that wasp nest until now, and well. When you're on the wrong end of a massive bombing campaign and you have the US navy and the small hat air force breathing down your neck, and you can ill afford to be made to look even weaker, you are not going to be a rational negotiator.
The blockade is probably the best option, but it's going to take a while. It's better than more bombs, anyways, in my opinion.
The regime isn't going to tolerate anything that makes them look weak, that's just the way things go in those countries. Honor and face are everything. That's why no US admin has tried to deal with that wasp nest until now, and well. When you're on the wrong end of a massive bombing campaign and you have the US navy and the small hat air force breathing down your neck, and you can ill afford to be made to look even weaker, you are not going to be a rational negotiator.
The blockade is probably the best option, but it's going to take a while. It's better than more bombs, anyways, in my opinion.
- Dołączono
- 20 Mar 2018
Your opinion is the only opinion of consequence.
Death of an Ego
kiwifarms.net
- Dołączono
- 13 Gru 2022
Says someone who may or may not think the same about their own. Thanks tho, I think
- Dołączono
- 3 Paź 2022
It would theoretically bring an end to the regime sooner. My Iranian friend in Europe is livid at Trump for not going all out. She reasons once the regime has fallen they can rebuild the shit that was wrecked, but currently they can't do anything either and the regime is still there fucking up everyone's lives.
I don't know what's best for the US's image, maybe the current strategy is. But a lot of people were hopeful that there would be swift total annihilation and now ithe regime is being entertained and Pakistan was involved and it feels like a clownshow where they will get away with it again. Which probably isn't true, but I can understand the frustration.
- Dołączono
- 4 Sie 2021
Libya isn’t doing too well. Syria is led by someone who literally came from al Qaida. Iraq is only kind of stable because of trillions of dollars spent on nationbuilding. People who want total destruction in Iran should be careful what they wish for.
penava
kiwifarms.net
- Dołączono
- 27 Wrz 2024
As an addendum to this, basically a third of Lebanon's population is Shia, and the vast majority of them support Hezbollah. Even without considering Hezbollah being militarily superior to the army, having a third of your own people willing to be terrorist collaborators is untenable in a civil war scenario unless you are willing to say fuck it and take the scorched earth approach which invites its own host of problems and potential foreign meddlers.
While I agree with the sentiment that it's best to keep momentum and do whatever it takes to collapse the regime or force capitulation, Trump wants to avoid creating a humanitarian disaster that defines his legacy. He's seen what gazasperging has done, and wants to avoid recreating that on a countrywide scale.
- Dołączono
- 30 Kwi 2022
Irans different. The majority of the population can read and write, like 95% and theres heavy infrastructure, and some decent domestic manufacturing, also they have oil money to repair and replace shit assuming the new leadership doesn't fuck it up, but I think the US, Israel and Gulf countries would rather forge a working partner than babysit a giant landmass in the ME.
Libya in theory should be doing better since they export light crude which is more valuable and takes less refining but after the Arab spring its had power vacuums and infighting plaguing the country.
The new Syria guy is holding the country together remarkably well given what he's up against. Loomer always spergs out about him but the alternative is another decade at least of internal fighting or US nation building which would be expensive and politically costly . No one here wants to deal with that so Im fine with the the al Quada guy.
- Dołączono
- 9 Sty 2020
I’m afraid all sides are making poor choices. Today is a most pivotal day and indeed the next three days will mark a great defining point in this war.
The price of oil has risen to a level neither the USA nor the globe can tolerate under current conditions. It is very likely a deal is needed before Monday so I’d expect this weekend to be full of ultimatums and probably resumption of hostilities in an effort to have a known path forward by Monday.
If there is no open strait by Monday, some cascade effects of lack of supply become hard-baked into economic models and both Iran and the USA will have some choices to make.
The blockade could remain of Irans ports for some time; but the lack of transit in the strait must come to an end very shortly indeed.
The strait MUST reopen.
- Dołączono
- 4 Lis 2017
Weaponized Jew Magic.
The Persian fears the Jewid.
.....Help Iranians?
serious answer:
How it helps Iranians is by completely removing the state's infrastructure and ability to exert any control on the population and by forcing them to break the social contract. You can see communist hell holes like China, Europe, and New York where the bargin is "Yes you are oppressed and exploited, but you are also reasonably comfortable as long as you follow the rules"; once the "reasonably comfortable" drops, then you start getting some real shit.
It also affects Iran's economy, specifically the war economy. Its hard to build more missiles and drones when your equipment doesn't have power.
@The Skeksis Emperor has it nailed which is that the faster the regime falls, the faster the people can try to pick things back up. And if they don't, the the IRGC deathcult will be spending the next decade rebuilding infrastructure instead of nukes.
So the banners and cakes for Bridge and Powerplant day aren't because we want the Iranian people to suffer, its to speed the end of the regime.
There is a momentum cost and its not exactly free to keep the Navy on combat deployment. Sailors have families, they have lives, and the US has things to do with carriers that aren't just sitting on the PG for years.
Syria is somehow functional and AJ is working his ass off to keep the country from going full genocide. Its actually kinda working and it really makes me concerned. But I have to remind myself that he's basically backed by Turkey and that's why the wheels haven't come off.
Iraq is really only stable because Shia militia asside, there is no possibility of outside threat. Its divided and 3 separate countries (or more accurate 2 separate countries and a worthless Sunni dependancy)
The only difference between Libya now and Libya pre-revolution is that the violence is out in the open. Secret police were nabbing people off the street, folks getting disappeeared, the country being raped. Ghadafi's clan was profiting but no one else was and they all lived in fear of violence. What's going on in the country was always going to happen, its good that it is happening now and hopefully they learn.
For Iran, either the people stop being repressed or there are a bunch of dead muslims. Its the ultimate can't lose.
Nigger, the price isn't even as high as it was under biden.
- Dołączono
- 5 Sty 2025
I do absolutely agree with you on this point. I was speaking more about if we absolutely had to spin up gallium production in an emergency (i.e. with no thought to cost or environmental impact/full wartime economy) and there has already been government investment to do so (Atlantic Alumina Announces $450 Million Strategic Partnership with United States Government) at the one alumina refinery we have.
If they can produce the 50 metric tons of gallium per year that they hope to I believe that’d be enough for all domestic consumption, and a small fraction of that would be plenty for essential military materiel if the chicoms decided to cut us off. The refinery does already have environmental issues due to the red mud (a byproduct of the alumina refining), but it is Louisiana after all, the whole state is an environmental catastrophe, so nobody seems to care that much. The gallium extraction process also seems to be easier and less toxic than most rare earth refining due to its characteristics, including its extremely low melting point, especially when you’re already refining alumina. There’s no timeline on it yet but they are also supposed to start extracting gallium from the red mud they already have in 2028.
And I do think this thread is more fun with you in it, In a sort of Cunningham’s Law type way it helps us all get more intel, human nature to dig into things more when there’s someone to push back against. I think everyone learned a thing or two about gallium today that we didn’t know before
And I do think this thread is more fun with you in it, In a sort of Cunningham’s Law type way it helps us all get more intel, human nature to dig into things more when there’s someone to push back against. I think everyone learned a thing or two about gallium today that we didn’t know before
Burnt Fish
kiwifarms.net
- Dołączono
- 7 Gru 2020
The price of oil is currently sitting under a hundred bucks a barrel.
The US can tolerate this price all day I don't know what you're smoking.
- Dołączono
- 9 Sty 2020
This is just not true; in relation to the tolerance of the oil prices. Any country that exports and imports must also be concerned with input costs and inflationary costs to their customers which are global as well as local. There are too many headwinds facing all countries including the USA and the rising energy costs are cutting into thinned margins. I know of no worthy enough economist that isn’t sounding the alarm on the price of oil and the consequence globally. Oil isn’t a stand alone cost; it’s an input cost to economic activity and it raises the price of just about everything.
The globe is also facing demand destruction and not just supply destruction as a consequence of what is happening. That strait needs to open in an extremely short time frame for everyone’s sake.
- Dołączono
- 23 Mar 2024
What a bunch of rookies, I bet they don't even have a cup of BPD girl period blood.
Burnt Fish
kiwifarms.net
- Dołączono
- 7 Gru 2020
okay, see you next week when the economy is still not in the death throes people have been predicting every other day for the last two months that still hasn't come. You can give me a rundown on how actually your prediction of "it has to be open by monday" not being true this week was a fluke and that now it's THIS weekend it has to open by, and we can repeat the cycle again.
- Dołączono
- 22 Wrz 2023
It feels kind of gay to use a television show as an example, but Landman had a scene where Billy Bob was discussing the sweet spot for crude oil. $85 really does seem to be it. Get into the $90's and it gets hard to sell, into the $70's and the traders slow down selling. I'm fine saying I work in the energy sector, and I can confirm that traffic has slowed down quite a bit. The only constant seems to be base oil, but I'm not sure as to why that's the one product that seems to be impervious to market forces.
Its some climate change bullshit it feels like. We're 2 weeks away from it being an unstoppable decline and everyone dies because of
- Dołączono
- 25 Lut 2024
Be patient nigga, the price isn't doing too bad as no bombs are being dropped on anybody as of right now, but once it gets going again, this shit will get really high.
Oil speculators are optimistically hedging that this whole oil crisis will surely blow over when the US and Iran finally have their deal soon.
I don't think that's gonna happen.
- Dołączono
- 9 Sty 2020
True. But remember Irans oil alone can indeed be replaced by global resources increasing production. However, the oil and other goods not flowing from
Other countries through the strait is erasing a global buffer and is such a shortfall that really, the strain is almost at breaking point. The world can live without Irans oil; but it just can not endure the other oil and goods not flowing. That strait absolutely must open and shortly Trump will be faced with a choice difficult for a President to entertain; taking the strait and erasing Irans ability to control it if they don’t reach an agreement.
He hasn’t much time; and neither does Iran. The next few days are critical.