Zero percent chance Pakistan is allowed to come out of this with a win.
Iran splitting in 6 parts would be truly awful. Admitting it splits according to ethnic map, it means Azeris and Pakistanis get bigger and stronger (and Afghanistan have even more reasons to fight Pakistan), Kurds would have an independent state to fight with Turks, and there's more free Arab countries to allow Islamism and civil wars.
Israel wants a powerful ally in Iran, US wants stability and oil which would be difficult with a splitting country, and other Muslims states would enter in chaos if it happens.
More importantly, instead of regional stability you'd just cause more wars as not all of Iran has oil, and even the internal ethnic goup zones aren't clearly defined.
it took south korea like 40 years to get them from war torn poverty hole to where they are today, and they had a homogenous population of high IQ east asians to work with
i doubt iran with its dozens of ethnic minorities can do the same
south Korea also wasn't infested with muslims.
Trump backtracked on the UK-Mauritius Chagos deal because
the UK is not letting the US use RAF bases (including Diego Garcia and RAF Fairford) to strike Iran.
Our stalwart European allies ladies and gentlemen.
I wonder how much cash the frogs are pouring into the country now to buy that sweet,sweet oil while they can
counterpoint: those were being maintained and operated by the incompetent and corrupt chavista army
but whether the iranian revolutionary guard is more competent and better organized than that remains to be seen
This is a completely fair and apt point. But I'd also care to point out the IRCG are bunch of inbred retarded sandniggers, most only in their positions because of connections not talent. So I really doubt they are maintaining their systems all that much better than the banana niggers.
I wonder if the IOC would ban America from the LA Games.
Please let this happen becasue it would be so fucking funny.
Yeah this was the standard Soviet excuse for why their systems never worked as advertised
The reality is that American technology doesn't just jam frequencies very well - it also pumps out all kinds of EM radiation that fucks with the hardware and laughs at Soviet/Russian (and Chinese) attempts at shielding
well how did we do it in 1991?
I am going to try to condense this well of absolute autism to the very lowest level.
When the US does EW they don't just try to outbroadcast power the other guy, which is what the soviets do. The US attempts to hammer enemy systems weak points, this allows relatively low power systems to utterly fuck high power ones well above their signal strenght.
In general, they locate where the RADARS are located and hit them frequency pulses that fuck with the reciever and cause the machine logic to assume there was an error and reset. The reset takes a second or two, and then its hit with another big,directed pulse right at the perfect time. The RADAR is thus kept in a constant "noise debug" loop.
This also doesn't count fun thigns like blasting the RADAR with a hyper-directed beam of its own frequency and causing it to overheat.
Yeah technology quality only paints half the picture, maintenance, operator training, and whether said operators were even active at the time of approach are crucial components as well. There's ways around radar jamming for example, but it's seriously doubtful the average chavista AA unit had any training in it or the awareness, planning, and tactical imagination necessary to account for it. Your average dictatorship grunt isn't going to be putting much effort into their job, especially when the US is content to posture and threaten for months on end before pulling the trigger out of the blue.
Iran in this case will be similar, especially after Israel degraded so much of their integrated air defences last year. The question isn't whether any decapitation strike succeeds, it's how well one does and whether it is enough to bring about regime change fast enough to stave off government collapse and civil war.
I'd care to point to the story of the Serb SA-2 battery commander who managed the F-117 kill.
to tl;dr: He had been drilling his men for months to the point thye could be packed up and moving in 15 minutes and redeployed in 45 minutes after finding a new site. He kept his battery in near constant movement. He waited for the perfect weather conditions, and had informants telling him when the F-117s were taking off, had an idea of about where they would be, and knew he didn't have to worry about any HARMs.
Even with all that lined up, he readily admits it was a long shot, just as likely they'd miss, powered his RADAR the absolute last second and immediately after launch shut down and his battery was already packing up to move without even confirming if they hit or not. So even with all that effort and prep, it came down to luck.
But it wouldn't have been possible if he hadn't drilled his men and put in the effort to set up his shot.
And I really doubt any sand niggers are drilling to that level of razor-honed competence.
To be fair, they're performing decently in the Donbass war. Neither Kiev nor Moskva risk many manned airstrikes.
Neither are risking aircraft near the front because they are soviet-pattern deathtraps (or Ukraine's case, soviet-pattern deathtraps OR one of 7 1970s F-16s). S-300 & S-400 has proven less hungry for Jets than Patriot.
No disagreement there, but also nobody is referring to surgical SpecOp strikes when they use the term "ground war."
In hypothetical large scale, boots-on-the-ground-holding-territory invasion of Iran, you WOULD have a Vietnam 2.0, and it would be occurring at a time when America is already extremely divided, everyone is openly questioning the legitimacy of their political rivals, and America is determinedly trying to pivot to the Pacific.
It would be a nightmare at home and abroad.
That's a lot of concern about how the US doing something in its geopolitical interests is actually a bad thing for the US because of some hypothetical nightmare scenario that would require a year of build up to even be plausible.
Post hands, fren.
I said avoid the sperging. Nevermind, it must be genetics.
"What if Russia sends Iran Unicorns? Could Russia send Iran a detachment of combat yetis?"
