Global Depression 2022 - Time to do the Breadline Boogaloo!

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Who is going to get hit the hardest?

  • North America

  • South America

  • Asia

  • Europe

  • Australia

  • Africa

  • The Middle East

  • Everyone's fucked

  • Nothing will happen

Wyniki są widoczne tylko po oddaniu głosu.
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@K-Hole Very awkward sentence construction. I've been working pretty long days for the last few months, so my brain is fried.

What I mean is there's a lot of oil out there. Proven reserves - that is reserves that are assessed and ready to be extracted - have remained near constant for most of the last century. Unproven reserves - known, not formally assessed, but on the books because they're proven in all but name - have risen slightly. The net effect is that we've had a consistent thirty (or whatever figure is used) year supply of oil "remaining" for the last 100 or more years. That's at an increasing rate of consumption, too. Proven reserves have kept up remarkably well.

As an aside, EROEI is a bit of a red herring. It's real, but it doesn't matter, because the majority of oil's use isn't in energy production, but in industrial processes and general transportation. A better measure would be GDP "returned" on energy invested, or the amount of work the economy does for a given amount of energy expended, which has been on a fairly consistent upward slope for as long as it has been measured. Even if oil EROEI went negative (which isn't happening for a long, long time) it would make little difference to the final benefit of its extraction, for the same reason that Iron extraction isn't measured in terms of iron returned on iron invested, bu in terms of economic output.
 
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Gasoline is rapidly approaching half my discretionary budget. Half. Thats the money I could have been spending at a restaurant. Buying new clothes. Maybe a Vidya Gayme. Instead it's literally going into my tank and set on fire.

I can't imagine this is a unique circumstance.

Just as an example. Last year I spent maybe 40 dollars a week on gasoline. Now I am spending close to 100 dollars a week. That is 60 extra dollars, times 4, which is 240 dollars extra. I've definitely had to cut back in many areas. Restaurants and Coffee shops for the most part. Now I bring a bag lunch to work, and I wolf down two cups of coffee before heading out the door.

My little snowflake on the mountain. Combined with everyone else's, turning into an avalanche.
 
Ostatnio edytowane:
Rei is shit powiedział(a):
Is it popping?
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Comrade Powell broke every rule in the book. He pushed the economy to the brink of disaster. He did this, believing that there was a failsafe. A-Z5. A single button. When A-Z5 is pushed, all interest rates in the economy go up simultaneously, stopping the inflationary spiral and restoring the economy to equilibrium.

But in the circumstances HE CREATED there is no stopping it.

05/05/2022, Comrade Powell engages A-Z5. Immediately interest rates surge and the value of assets start to fall. Local banks look over their balance sheets and see the impossible. Inflation that should be falling instead starts to skyrocket. All the loose money pumped into the system flees to hard cash, bonds, real assets or any other safety it can find.

The economy is now a nuclear bomb.
 
mindlessobserver powiedział(a):
Comrade Powell broke every rule in the book. He pushed the economy to the brink of disaster. He did this, believing that there was a failsafe. A-Z5. A single button. When A-Z5 is pushed, all interest rates in the economy go up simultaneously, stopping the inflationary spiral and restoring the economy to equilibrium.

But in the circumstances HE CREATED there is no stopping it.

05/05/2022, Comrade Powell engages A-Z5. Immediately interest rates surge and the value of assets start to fall. Local banks look over their balance sheets and see the impossible. Inflation that should be falling instead starts to skyrocket. All the loose money pumped into the system instead flees to hard cash, bonds, real assets or any other safety it can find.

The economy is now a nuclear bomb.
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Holy shit, that sounds like the economy version of Chernobyl. They create an artificial worst-case scenario in the reactor, believing that single safety button to reinsert the control rods would save them. Except the control rods were tipped with graphite and the first few milliseconds of reinserting the rods drove reaction up so quickly that it blew the roof off with a steam explosion.
 
Ruin powiedział(a):
Millennials and zoomers have jack fucking shit. They don't have houses or stocks.

This is going to be economic boomercide.
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I got my house last year. Been ringing the warning bell the entire time. Managed to extract my sister too. Convinced her a few months ago to get a house damn the torpedoes. Glad she did now, watching what is happening to interest rates and property values.

The housing market is going to crash, but not for the reason people assume. Nobody is going to buy, but nobody is going to SELL either. This is the nightmare scenario. Interest rates AND inflation are going to surge, and the paper value of land is going to go up. On paper.

BULLY HUNTER_77 powiedział(a):
Holy shit, that sounds like the economy version of Chernobyl. They create an artificial worst-case scenario in the reactor, believing that single safety button to reinsert the control rods would save them. Except the control rods were tipped with graphite and the first few milliseconds of reinserting the rods drove reaction up so quickly that it blew the roof off with a steam explosion.
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Well yeah, I was quoting the Chernobyl TV show. But I find the comparison apt, and a good way to describe what is going on.
 
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