Almost every poll has Trump losing the battleground states. I know polls got it wrong it 2016, but they still all gave Trump a decent chance to win. Biden is likely the next president, as much as people would like to believe otherwise. Maybe lightning strikes twice, but anyone who isn't completely dominated by TES should acknowledge that Trump is likely out give current polling. Polls have very high accuracy. That they were wrong in one case is not indicative of a very flawed methodology. I would prefer Trump win, even though I think he's bottom-feeding trash, but it's unlikely.
No they really don’t. If you actually look into said polls, they all show the Battlegrounds results to be well within the margin of error using the pollsters own methodology. If you look at their samples and apply proper methodology . here’s a hint Democrats don’t enjoy a 70% advantage in “Battleground” States. If they did they would not be battleground states. So weighting polls 36% Dem 26% GOP is crooked as shit. If Biden is ahead but within the margin of error within the battleground states, with the 70% Dem oversample, Then he is losing catastrophically.
Other presenting evidence seems to back this up. Biden has lost the unions in the Battleground states. They’ve heavily backed Trump (because their members swung Trump last time in spite of their Hillary endorsements.) Trump delivered heavily for the rust belt unions. Joe Biden spent decades selling them out. Trump seems to be polling up to and even in some cases above 30% with black voters. Especially Black males. There is virtually no set of circumstances where Joe Biden loses 30 percent of Black Voters and is legitimately polling above Trump in those states. At the point where the Dems lose 30% of the Black vote they become the Whigs.
Now as to how and why the pollsters are doing this and maintaining (badly) the aura of legitimacy. Presidential Polling generally uses the turnout for the previous two Presidential elections to calculate weighting and likely voters. But they also will often drop an outlier or Black Swan event election. This is letting them cheat badly. They leftist media pollsters claim 2016 was the Black Swan event, and calculate based on 2008 and 2012. Years that experienced grossly disproportionate black voter turnout and a general apathy among GOP voters. The real truth is 2016 turnout was in line with historical norms. 2008 and 2012 were the actual outliers. The literal Black Swan event the disproportionately altered the normal voting patterns was the Obama candidacy , not Trump. If when looking at 2016 polling you drop 2008 as the outlier and use 2004 instead, even leaving 2012, you can clearly see the Trump victory looming in the polls. Similarly this year if you keep 2016 and drop 2008, as honest polling would do, you see a clear Trump victory, probably not far removed from Reagan’s 1980 map. Not quite the complete blowouts of 1972 or 1984, but a clear sweep. With Trump taking 45-47 States.
While Trump won’t take California, he has a good chance of seeing better numbers in the popular vote this year. With all the rioting do you think more people in Cali and the Pacific Northwest will vote Dem than did last time? Safety is the single biggest driver of voting. If you don’t feel safe you don’t vote for the people making you feel unsafe. Joe Biden’s “Vote for me or my minions will burn your cities“ approach really doesn’t work. They won’t vote for the guy more likely to appease the rioters and give them your stuff. They vote for whoever promises to shoot the rioters. (Heck even the Nazi’s understood this, they somehow managed to both be the violent thugs, and campaign as the people who would shoot the violent thugs.)