Animal Crossing: New Horizons - It's hard to convince people that I'm not a furry after telling them I like Animal Crossing.

[Peace and Harmony]

tbh if we could get a friendly group of people here that give out dodo codes / friend access whenever they spike, you really don't need to go further afield (for selling turnips, at least). I'm always happy to have random strangers dicking about on my island.

I feel that if someone had a good head for probability (not me, I'm fucking re,tarded), they'd be able to use this data to work out how many people would need to collaborate to more or less guarantee that at least one person in the group would have a large spike that week. But that would be even more work than filling in your link.

 

[SteelPlatedHeart]

Honestly, I just search “turnip prices” on tumblr and usually have good luck. Last week I made $1.5 mil.

 

[Cosmos]

Oh man glad to find this thread so I don't have to deal with Trump's Chosen People at turnip.exchange, feel like a baka gaijin at jp twitter, or deal with wuh-uh and breadsticks at /v/. I'll keep watching for nip prices from now on, sadly I'm on small spike week. PM for Friend Code if anyone wants to doodle on my board and check out my 14 plank dock.


Go to your profile (top-left at home screen), Play Activity should be on the first screen

Surprisingly the hero in turnip trading is Reddit. The AC Reddit bans requiring payment or tips to sell turnips. Tips are encouraged but you aren't allowed to ask for anything in return or kick people out for not paying. Turnip.exchange is mostly greedy assholes shaking you down for fucktons of bells. Some will just block you and demand payment then kick you out and keep the bells.

I've been using Telegram groups and my friends to sell turnips. I also don't have to worry about fences or preventing people from seeing the rest of my island.

I really don't get the racket surrounding turnip selling. I understand being cautious about people dicking around on your island, but some people are like "You can't enter my island unless you give me 50,000 bells and furniture." Why should we? It's not like you're losing or sacrificing anything by letting people sell turnips on your island. I understand why it could be an inconvenience (hence why I think it's nice to tip people) but it's crazy that people are actually being racketeers in an Animal Crossing game.

Also, I've never really done the whole turnip stock exchange (like, ever) but it might be worth getting into if there are people willing to cooperate to help you get the maximum payout. Any tips for a newbie?

 

[Lopsquad]

I feel that if someone had a good head for probability (not me, I'm fucking re,tarded), they'd be able to use this data to work out how many people would need to collaborate to more or less guarantee that at least one person in the group would have a large spike that week. But that would be even more work than filling in your link.

Wyświetl załącznik 1246362

Well, here's my amateur hour statistics;

The average percentage change of getting any particular pattern is sum(percentages in column) / 4, so:

• Random: 35%
• Large Spike: 26.25%
• Decreasing: 13.75%
• Small Spike: 25%

So, the percentage chance of having X people with no large spike is (100% - 26.25%) ^ X, and the chance of at least one person in X people having a large spike is 100% - (100% - 26.25%) ^ X.

In other words, for the following values of X, these are the percentage chances of at least one person having a large spike:

1. X = 2: 45%
2. X = 3: 59%
3. X = 4: 70%
4. X = 5: 78%
5. X = 8: 91%
6. X = 16: 99%

Please point out if I've made a mistake, Statistics class was a long, long time ago.

 

[SteelPlatedHeart]

I really don't get the racket surrounding turnip selling. I understand being cautious about people dicking around on your island, but some people are like "You can't enter my island unless you give me 50,000 bells and furniture." Why should we? It's not like you're losing or sacrificing anything by letting people sell turnips on your island. I understand why it could be an inconvenience (hence why I think it's nice to tip people) but it's crazy that people are actually being racketeers in an Animal Crossing game.

Also, I've never really done the whole turnip stock exchange (like, ever) but it might be worth getting into if there are people willing to cooperate to help you get the maximum payout. Any tips for a newbie?

Every day has two prices, morning and afternoon. From what I understand, the days to sell are typically middle of the week for the highest payout, so those are the days you want to be looking for people posting prices.

 

[Lopsquad]

I really don't get the racket surrounding turnip selling. I understand being cautious about people dicking around on your island, but some people are like "You can't enter my island unless you give me 50,000 bells and furniture." Why should we? It's not like you're losing or sacrificing anything by letting people sell turnips on your island. I understand why it could be an inconvenience (hence why I think it's nice to tip people) but it's crazy that people are actually being racketeers in an Animal Crossing game.

Also, I've never really done the whole turnip stock exchange (like, ever) but it might be worth getting into if there are people willing to cooperate to help you get the maximum payout. Any tips for a newbie?

Buy as many turnips as you physically can on Sunday, asking around with your friends to see who has the lowest price (you don't really need to find the absolute lowest price here).

Turnips have a selling price in the morning before 12PM, and the afternoon/evening before closing time. If you keep track of both and put them in the tooling I mentioned above, you can get spookily accurate forecasts on your future pricing. The more friends you have that do this, the better chances someone will get that one perfect pattern that pays out 3 to 6 times the payout. Rinse and repeat until you're literally post-scarcity.

As I've said above, you really don't need to repeat this cycle too many times; a solid initial investment of 100k can quickly turn into millions after a few weeks.

 

[Peace and Harmony]

Well, here's my amateur hour statistics;

I cannot personally verify your computations but I had someone run a highly advanced autism simulator and he said that 8 people cooperating give a 92% chance of a large spike in any given week, assuming the initial conditions are distributed at random. Surely we have 8 people shitposting in this topic.

 

[Luigi]

Also, I've never really done the whole turnip stock exchange (like, ever) but it might be worth getting into if there are people willing to cooperate to help you get the maximum payout. Any tips for a newbie?

Based on my own experiences:

First week doesn't work with the predictions, you usually have a small spike later in the week I guess so people won't stop playing the stalk market.
This simulator has an option for those cases https://turnipprophet.io/index.html but if you are going to deal with friends just ignore selling on your own island during the first week or don't invest too much.

Avoid buying for more than 100, ask around if anyone has cheaper turnips. If your island is selling for over 400, you may want to tell your friends.

Turnips are a good way to get out of debt fast and improve your island, so maybe play it a few good weeks and you should be fine for a while.

 

[Lopsquad]

I cannot personally verify your computations but I had someone run a highly advanced autism simulator and he said that 8 people cooperating give a 92% chance of a large spike in any given week, assuming the initial conditions are distributed at random. Surely we have 8 people shitposting in this topic.

Yep, that matches up with what I posted: 8 people have a 91.248% chance, 16 people have a 99.234% chance.

Even if we don't get a large spike, small spikes can still give you a 1.5 to 2 times return, and the odds of someone having a small or large spike in a group of 4 people is 94%+.

Every week doesn't need to be an astronomical hit: even 50% profit is still a large amount on a 1 million bell investment, and it's all compounding.

 

[Lackadaisy]

Can you trade fish and bugs to other players? I'm looking for a stringfish and/or coelacanth. Willing to trade for anything in my catalog.

 

[A Welsh Cake]

I’m not a furry but...

 

[HIVidaBoheme]

Can you trade fish and bugs to other players? I'm looking for a stringfish and/or coelacanth. Willing to trade for anything in my catalog.

Sadly not yet. But you can go fish at a friend's place and get those fish if the conditions for spawn are met.

 

[SteelPlatedHeart]

Can you trade fish and bugs to other players? I'm looking for a stringfish and/or coelacanth. Willing to trade for anything in my catalog.

Doesn’t seem like it since putting them down counts as furniture.

 

[The Big O]

Can you trade fish and bugs to other players? I'm looking for a stringfish and/or coelacanth. Willing to trade for anything in my catalog.

Negatory. Gotta catch all your own bugs and fish. I got real lucky at the end of March with the Stringfish and Sturgeon, for instance. Your only way to get them now is to either wait half a year or time travel back one month.

 

[Chin of Campbell]

Those looking for somewhere to exchange turnip prices are welcome to the thread Discord. We always alert each other of good turnip prices, and there's a pretty free exchange of new furniture/DIYs.

 

[SteelPlatedHeart]

I just went ahead and got rid of the Bunny DIYs for my Take or Trade. No one is obviously gonna take them

 

[Luigi]

Negatory. Gotta catch all your own bugs and fish. I got real lucky at the end of March with the Stringfish and Sturgeon, for instance. Your only way to get them now is to either wait half a year or time travel back one month.

Or visit someone with a Southern Hemisphere island.

 

[Peace and Harmony]

Yep, that matches up with what I posted: 8 people have a 91.248% chance, 16 people have a 99.234% chance.

Well I'm in if you are, 2 to 6 more participants and we can feel pretty solid about never having to step foot on leddit or turnip exchange again.

 

[Pargon]

I understand being cautious about people dicking around on your island

Even this boggles my mind. The only things I know of people can do on another person's island is catch bugs or fish. Can you even pick flowers or fruit? And if you're overrun you can just close the gate and kick everyone out, right?

I'm actually asking because everyone I've invited had been from here and as has been said ad nauseum already, everyone here is just lovely

 

[Luigi]

Well I'm in if you are, 2 to 6 more participants and we can feel pretty solid about never having to step foot on leddit or turnip exchange again.

Count me in, I was about to make dodos extinct earlier today while trying find a place to sell.

Even this boggles my mind. The only things I know of people can do on another person's island is catch bugs or fish. Can you even pick flowers or fruit? And if you're overrun you can just close the gate and kick everyone out, right?

I'm actually asking because everyone I've invited had been from here and as has been said ad nauseum already, everyone here is just lovely

You can step on flowers (they grow back but still) and shake trees, it is a bit annoying if you have a money tree as scenery. If the dodo code is public people can get lagged by people trying to join, and you are forced to watch cutscenes. It can be hard to get back to the gates depending on the situation as well.