Personally, I think in order of highest to lowest chances of flipping red
- New Hampshire
- Maine, Virginia, New Mexico, Minnesota
- Rhode Island, Nevada, Colorado
- Oregon
Pocahontas. I think Bernie's spot on, the establishment wants her. She's getting good press lately, the media is fawning over her because "she has a plan for everything" She's progressive enough to appease their rabid base, but much more palatable than Bernie to the corporate types. She's younger, not male, and is 1/1024th person of color.
This is the perfect matchup for Trump. She'll likely lose New Mexico and Nevada due to the Indian thing. She won't turn out the black vote. I didn't realize until recently that despite their similarities, Bernie and Warren fans are not really friendly towards each other. So the Bernie or bust crowd will likely take their ball and go home instead of voting in 2020.
And on top of that, you know that Trump is going to taunt the fuck out of her in the debates. Unlike with Trump, whose volatility is already priced in to his image, when she loses her cool against him it's going to reflect poorly on her because she's supposed to be the more presidential one.
This is why I don't think the birther thing with was necessarily racist. He was just trying to induce him to make a mistake that he could use later. Low risk, high reward. Just like with Pocahontas. Who would have thought that Trump goading her into proving she was Indian could potentially pay such dividends down the road?
