Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[mindlessobserver]

@mindlessobserver you were spot on about the cracks really starting in Year Four. Despite lots of historical examples, because Mercury was in retrograde I figured Russia would be able to control their rate of losses and we wouldn't see things get truly interesting for a while longer

Year 5 is going to be way more interesting too. Especially if Russia is unable tk take sloviansk and kramatorsk this year. Which is looking increasingly likely. Thats the year Ukraine will start fielding F16s and Gripens in earnest. If you think Russias supply situation looks cooked now, you've not seen anything yet. I dont think Russia will be able to maintain their advance after this fall and will have to dig in and fortify what they have.

Which is why come the winter I expect Putin may try and negotiate for what he has now, and Trump will pressure Ukraine to "take the deal" so he can say he made a deal.

This assumes no outside context shenanigans like Belarus entering the war. Putin will have to come down off his demand for all the Donbass though. The other issue is how well informed the Kremlin is about its own remaining capabilities. The Russian propensity to lie even to themselves can definitely distort their long term strategic thinking.

 

[Snekposter]

Year 5 is going to be way more interesting too. Especially if Russia is unable tk take sloviansk and kramatorsk this year. Which is looking increasingly likely. Thats the year Ukraine will start fielding F16s and Gripens in earnest. If you think Russias supply situation looks cooked now, you've not seen anything yet. I dont think Russia will be able to maintain their advance after this fall and will have to dig in and fortify what they have.

Which is why come the winter I expect Putin may try and negotiate for what he has now, and Trump will pressure Ukraine to "take the deal" so he can say he made a deal.

This assumes no outside context shenanigans like Belarus entering the war. Putin will have to come down off his demand for all the Donbass though. The other issue is how well informed the Kremlin is about its own remaining capabilities. The Russian propensity to lie even to themselves can definitely distort their long term strategic thinking.

I'm just laughing that something we deliberately named the "Rusty Dagger" because it was from our perspective a cheap piece of mass-produced garbage solely for export to a broke and corrupt Slavic craphole is mogging Russian AD.

 

[No. 7 cat]

If any of you have Russian or Ukrainian Telegram channels to follow please link them.

Robert Brovdi's Telegram provides a regular mix of edits and news expressed in a Brovdi's inimitable style, so 'worms' is the word for the SMO chumps his drones harvest etc.

4:19

Moscow will fall in Crimea.
SBs Birds will continue to assist.
A variety of targets, eat worms.

The night of June 23 was eventful in Crimea. In the operational depth of the enemy, SBs Birds caused a stir, with over 60 sensitive enemy targets being neutralized with just mortars. Among the various targets were three winged cruise missile carriers, four air defense systems, an oil depot in Kerch, a gas distribution and substation, logistics convoys and refueling vehicles...

Among them:
Deep strike drones "Orion" - 3 units, carriers of guided bombs and small-sized cruise missiles, Kerch depot, AR Crimea, 1 SBs Birds OC

Oil reservoirs at the Kerch (Kamysh-Burun) TPP, Kerch depot, AR Crimea, 1 SBs Birds OC

S-300 air defense system, Kurortne depot, AR Crimea, 1 SBs Birds OC

"Nebo-U" radar, Kerch depot, AR Crimea, 1 SBs Birds OC

ZU-23-3 anti-aircraft system, Kurortne depot, AR Crimea, 1 SBs Birds OC

Western Crimean 330/110 kV substation, Kar'yerne depot, AR Crimea, 427th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade "Rarog", 413th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade "Reid"

Enemy logistics transport, Priazovskoe depot, Zaporizhia region, 412th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade "Nemesis"

Enemy logistics transport, AR Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions, "13" detachment of the 414th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade "Hungarian Birds", 20th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade "K-2", 412th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade "Nemesis", 1 SBs Birds OC

Follow the results live:
SBS online scoreboard "CALCULATOR"
https://sbs-group.army/

MAGYAR
23.06.26

Machine translated.

Voynareal UA also post footage like below:

0:47

On the Vovchansk direction, the border guards of the "Forpost" brigade thwarted an attempt by the occupiers to cross the Vovcha River

Since the spring, the enemy has intensified attempts to set up crossings on the South-Slobozhansky direction. For this, the Russians are using engineering means, including pontoon crossings based on MT-LBs, hoping to transfer personnel and equipment and establish a bridgehead on the opposite bank.

However, these plans are systematically disrupted by the border guards at the preparation stage.

0:22

British Intelligence chat is probably as much about humor as news. It's the comment thread for British Intelligence which is a Ukrainian Telegram posting mostly footage like below. The spanking was something found on the phone of a dead Russian soldier. The sound is definitely authentic.

1:30

 

[Mr. Racewar1488]

0:06

Gasoline shortage in Russia all the way to Vladivostok

Problems with fuel supply are noted in Novosibirsk, Omsk, Tomsk, Irkutsk, Leningrad regions, as well as in the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug and other territories.

Queues are forming at gas stations, in some regions restrictions on the supply of fuel have been introduced or its absence is observed.

In the Moscow region, interruptions in the availability of gasoline and queues at gas stations are also recorded.


The aftermath of the burned oil terminal in Kerch and the damaged ferries that were driven to the Kerch Ship Repair Plant, - Exilenova

0:09

View from the Crimean Bridge today.

 

[No. 7 cat]

0:15

I'm not sure this will help much.

0:58

Xitter

A visibly angry Putin asserts a madly revisionist of how Stalin somehow tried to form an alliance against Hitler. It's likely the old Soviet big lie technique where outright falsehood is asserted to confuse people about reality, but there's likely a degree to which Putin believes it. There patently is a degree to which Putin has fallen to the dictator disease of believing his own propaganda.

Spoiler: Distracted air defense

0:37

Instead of cooming, Voronezh might've had a full functioning semi-conductor device plant.

0:48

0:18

A morning arrival at the "VZPP-S" semiconductor device factory in Voronezh. It specializes in the production of transistor arrays for the X-101, Iskander-K, and the "Pantsyr-S1" air defense missile system.

British Intelligence

 

[Zorak Prison Pod]

Russia will arrive at the Rhine River next week

The ziggers modified the plan slightly, now it's Seven Days to the Whine.

 

[Snekposter]

British Intelligence

Well, its not like the Pantsir was all that effective before it ran out of replacement parts for its radars...

 

[No. 7 cat]

Well, its not like the Pantsir was all that effective before it ran out of replacement parts for its radars...

Perhaps tho operating the Pantsir rather than gazing at boobies might've been a sign of sincere effort, even if the outcome would've been the same, They might now find themselves running across a muddy field in Ukraine, bit part players in Magyar's latest compilation.

 

[OrangeCream]

You see, mr LGBTQIA etc. faggot NAFO lesbian pride parade warrior, Stalin was trying to prevent pride parades which you now see in Kiev and London. He had actually signed a pact to invade poland with hitler to protect poland from the LGTBTQ sex tourist hord from Anglo-Saxony (oblast in germany). The polands betrayed stalin by fighting back because they are nazis. Explain that

 

[Pocket Dragoon]

Russian milblogger Evegny Golman rants and spergs about the fuel shortages and the glorious past days of USSR might:

4:22

"Meow meow meow"

---

That’s very interesting, on the surface it’s a way more capable device than needed, so either it’s what they can get that’s fast enough, or it’s doing something else too.

Notice the vanes are angled so the thing will spin as it drops. If you drop it from a pre-set height you could be counting spins to get an “air burst” a couple of metres above the ground which might be more useful than it actually hitting.

Air-burst is my guess, considering an EFP needs standoff distance for the jet to form correctly, and the frag sleeve would be far more effective bursting a couple feet off the ground.

 

[HidekiVonMetternich4real]

Putin needs the west to simultaneously be this boogeyman because that's the whole motivation for the Soviet Union he so desperately wants to revive, but at the same time because of Russian superiority bias that same western power has to be spoken about as being inferior and weak to STRONK RUSSIA.

At its core, it's the same bullshit in North Korea where the United States is treated as simultaneously an inferior country that is somehow still powerful enough to warrant a perpetual state of combat readiness for an 'eventual' attack that has never come for decades.

this is true for so many countries

China: omg the west is so fractured and weak we can take Taiwan, sorry I meant reunify Chinese Taipei whenever we want!!!! But also at the same time our goal is to reach invasion readiness by 2030! What, the US wants to put patriot missiles and himars batteries on some islands? No! this is unprecedented escalation! Stop it this instance! --- Proceeds to have a frigate destroyed in the process of harassing fishing vessels

China is also very funny because they keep bragging about how they're going to overtake the US and become the biggest economy on earth any day now but still claim to be a developing country whenever it suits them so people don't raise eyebrows when they build yet another 200 coal fire power plants


Any of the Arab states/ Iran: Omg Israel is so fucking tiny and weak the united strength of the arab and islamic world would crush them! They only exist because of US and European bankrolling! But also somehow the Mossad controls the world and is causing every single one of our domestic problems!

the list goes on

These countries are retarded, the west just exists as a boogeyman to all of their problems. For China its the US and Japan, for any of the middle eastern countries its the US and Israel, for Russia its NATO.

It might actually be true for Russia to an extent tho, in an ironic way, cause at this point we've been shown that in a conventional war Poland + one major european country can probably demolish Russia in a conventional war, but then NATO increasingly looks like its going to tear itself apart without Russia having to do anything.

 

[Mr. Racewar1488]

Ukraine has launched drones into Crimea and western Russia.

Monitoring sources indicate that up to 320 drones have been launched so far.

 

[Fatsuit Shinji]

A visibly angry Putin asserts a madly revisionist of how Stalin somehow tried to form an alliance against Hitler. It's likely the old Soviet big lie technique where outright falsehood is asserted to confuse people about reality, but there's likely a degree to which Putin believes it. There patently is a degree to which Putin has fallen to the dictator disease of believing his own propaganda

A successful lie in which most Americans and westerners completely believe. And probably won't be until all of generations before Gen Beta or Gen Gamma/Charlie are dead before the lie is no longer believe as real but as propaganda.

Yeah that's why the highest profile use of Soviet titanium was Lockheed.

With Grumman as runner up as second with the wingbox for the F-14.

 

[mindlessobserver]

A successful lie in which most Americans and westerners completely believe. And probably won't be until all of generations before Gen Beta or Gen Gamma/Charlie are dead before the lie is no longer believe as real but as propaganda.

And its amazing how it worked too. Hitler invaded Poland, yet somehow only ended up with half of it after the Stalin took the other half. Strange that. What's really funny though is Stalin thought he had an alliance with Hitler too, which is why he could not believe it when Hitler invaded.

 

[latinlover]

I didn't know up until this point that there's a recording of this, but I'm sure there will be some people who find this as funny as I have. Some Estonian theatre [in English] has decided to make a literary soirée with the transcripts of the extremely homoerotic phone calls between Lavrov (Russian FM) and Szijjártó (Hungarian ex-FM)

This includes some of the conversations I haven't posted earlier and there really is some gold in there. My favorite is when Szijjarto called Lavrov during the Wagner coup on 2023 June 24. This is the actual, unedited transcript of the phone conversation obtained by European intelligence agencies through tapping the Russians' conversations and finding out that Lavrov has these regular gay little chats with Szijjarto for seemingly no reason.

Szíjjártó: Hello, I just wanted to know if things are under control and that you are OK?

Lavrov: Absolutely under control, President has said everything that was needed. Don’t worry, we will keep it quiet.

Szíjjártó: Have you stopped their [Wagner]advance towards Moscow?

Lavrov: The army is in control. I don’t follow the events live. The army knows perfectly well what to do.

Szíjjártó: So these are just fake news that the president and prime minister have left Moscow?

Lavrov: These news have been debunked hours ago already. Don’t worry and don’t believe what the social media is saying.

Szíjjártó: Are they [Wagner)]in Voronezh and Rostov?

Lavrov: I don’t follow everything from hour to hour. The army is on the ground and they have all the capabilities and knowledge on what to do.

Szíjjártó: So you personally are completely fine?

Lavrov: Absolutely. More than fine.

Szíjjártó: Well, if you ever need anything personally, just let me know.

Lavrov: (laughing). I don’t need anything. There is no problem. Thank you for calling.

[goodbyes]

 

[No. 7 cat]

And its amazing how it worked too. Hitler invaded Poland, yet somehow only ended up with half of it after the Stalin took the other half. Strange that. What's really funny though is Stalin thought he had an alliance with Hitler too, which is why he could not believe it when Hitler invaded.

Stalin delayed his attack for a week (per the secret Ribbentrop-Molotov protocol) so the Polish resistance to his violation of the Soviet non aggression pact with Poland would be weak (yet the Poles fought as well as they could). After this treacherous operation was finished, German and Soviet troops held a very friendly parade in Brest Litovsk on 22nd September. While later there was a growing competition over which piece of Rumania or other areas were to be grabbed, relations remained stable until the last few months when Stalin fell into denial about what was likely to happen, Now the big lie that Putin angrily asserted is the opposite of fact that for a time Hitler and Stalin were pragmatic allies. Earlier, the Soviet Union had facilitated German rearmament efforts in defiance of Versailles. It was not irrational of Stalin to see Germany and the USSR as allies who sometimes disagreed and menaced each other over dividing the spoils, but overall were friends. Loyally Stalinist Communist parties like that of France or Britain ceased any anti Nazi propaganda while the Pact held.



Kyiv is willing to offer a full and unconditional ceasefire, but this offer will be withdrawn if the UNSC doesn't endorse the call. Putin seems fanatically committed to waging war unless his unearned demands are met. One official cites Russia's war with Charles XII and Sweden over 22 years as sign of determination, which sounds like mania given the shit state of Russia now.

Ukraine war briefing: ‘Our patience is not endless’ – Kyiv signals peace offer may expire​

Full and unconditional ceasefire is a major compromise that Ukraine might ‘recalibrate and modify’, says UN envoy. What we know on day 1,581

• Ukraine may revise its ceasefire offer to Russia if the UN security council fails to pass a resolution urging a full and ⁠unconditional end to ⁠the hostilities, Kyiv’s envoy to the UN has warned. Ukraine had changed the dynamic in the war with recent strikes, said Andrii Melnyk, adding that some 40% of Russia’s oil refineries had been damaged.
• Melnyk told a security council session that Ukraine stoody ready for direct negotiations with Russia but “our patience is not endless”. “If the security council would further choose a wait-and-see approach, I cannot exclude that Ukraine may recalibrate and modify its offer. Ceasefire along the de facto ‌front line is already a great compromise.”
• The envoy’s statement reflects growing confidence that Ukraine’s war effort is on the front foot, with Russian cities starved of fuel supplies and a “middle strike” campaign seriously disrupting supply lines to Moscow’s occupying forces. The campaign’s success has prompted Russian-held Crimea to halt civilian gasoline sales, Pjotr Sauer writes. All summer camps in illegally annexed Crimea on Monday stopped accepting children and new bookings until 1 September for security reasons, said Sergei Aksyonov, the Russian-installed governor of the illegally occupied peninsula. Aviation authorities temporarily closed Moscow’s four airports on Monday as air defences battled a wave of Ukrainian drones.

Guardian archive / Guardian original link

 

[mindlessobserver]

Kyiv is willing to offer a full and unconditional ceasefire, but this offer will be withdrawn if the UNSC doesn't endorse the call. Putin seems fanatically committed to waging war unless his unearned demands are met. One official cites Russia's war with Charles XII and Sweden over 22 years as sign of determination, which sounds like mania given the shit state of Russia now.

The 22 year war with Sweden also took so long because it was the early 18th century and troops had to march around a fucking huge amount of territory. Even assembling an army for a campaign could take a year. And then you had to spend a year or two using it. Also both Sweden and Russia had other things to do at the same time they were fighting each other. Alot of the fighting was just frontier skirmishing with a few massive set pieces like Poltava that came very rarely. Some years of the war nobody did anything at all.

 

[Snekposter]

The 22 year war with Sweden also took so long because it was the early 18th century and troops had to march around a fucking huge amount of territory. Even assembling an army for a campaign could take a year. And then you had to spend a year or two using it. Also both Sweden and Russia had other things to do at the same time they were fighting each other. Alot of the fighting was just frontier skirmishing with a few massive set pieces like Poltava that came very rarely. Some years of the war nobody did anything at all.

Hell, during the much, much larger Hundred Years' War both England and France had to put a temporary halt to it thanks to the Black Death making it suicide to try and gather an army in one place.

Oh, I also forgot the Thirty Years' War that saw a good chunk of land that eventually became the German Empire suffer a full 2/3 population loss, the places that came out relatively unscathed suffering only 1/3 population loss, and both sides hating each other so much at the end that they needed to send terms back and forth via courier instead of meeting face to face, despite both agreeing to meet in the same city to put an end to the hostilities.

 

[Astro Galactic Megalul]

A visibly angry Putin asserts a madly revisionist of how Stalin somehow tried to form an alliance against Hitler. It's likely the old Soviet big lie technique where outright falsehood is asserted to confuse people about reality, but there's likely a degree to which Putin believes it. There patently is a degree to which Putin has fallen to the dictator disease of believing his own propaganda.

It's satisfying to see him malding, with visible signs of stress on his ugly goblin face. It's just too bad people have to suffer for his delusions.

 

[Optimus Prime]

Putin seems fanatically committed to waging war unless his unearned demands are met.

He has to know that his time is running out on this mortal coil and he's already committed so much into the Ukraine conflict. To surrender now is to give up on the dream of restoring the Soviet Union altogether. At the very least he has to come out looking like the stronger leader to have a shot at continuing this shitshow later after rearmament.

One official cites Russia's war with Charles XII and Sweden over 22 years as sign of determination, which sounds like mania given the shit state of Russia now.

I'm guessing they don't teach how badly Afghanistan went for the Soviets in only ten years.