On Texas “going purple” and Talarico.
Below is a post I made 3 years ago with 2024 additions depicting the results of significant elections in Texas over the last 20 years.
08: Mccain v Obama 55.45-43.68
12: Romney v Obama 57.17-41.38
16: Trump v Clinton, 52.23-43.2
18: Beto v Cruz was the closest it's ever come at 48.3 to 50.9, with Beto spending twice what Cruz did, Cruz being unpopular, and in a R seat midterm
18: Abbot v Valdez, a race in which the D candidate, the former sheriff of Dallas, left her service weapon in a whataburger shitter, lied about it, and pinned the blame on someone else, only to have the whole thing come out as a coverup later, 55.8-42.5
20: Trump v Biden, 52.02-46.5
22: Abbott v Beto, 54.8-43.9.
24: Cruz v Allred 53.05-44.56
24: Trump v Harris 56.14-42.46
Texas trending purple comes up every fucking election cycle despite there being no data to support that.
That being said, Paxton has a bad reputation on the whole in Texas. My boomer Republican aunt can’t stand him. However, I don’t think that reputation will overcome the positions that Talarico holds or held previously in the minds of more centrist Republicans. All they need to do is keep hammering the blasphemous remarks he makes about Christianity and his views on trans kids. One other big factor is the money advantage that the Republicans have. The RNC has shitloads more money than the DNC does at the moment. Even though the RINOs outspent Paxton by a factor of FIVE in a Senate primary, they will have to defend the seat and can outspend the DNC while still holding the NC, AK, ME and the other swing seat I’m forgetting. Beto had the entire weight of the Dem establishment and three times the money that Cruz did in 18 and still lost.
Tl;dr Talarico will have a shot, but he is nowhere near as exciting as Beto for the larger Dem establishment. I think this is the Republican’s race to lose.
campaigning
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