Iran Crisis & the 2026 War between Iran and the United States, Gulf States, and Israel - Please focus on news and coverage, not argumentation.

[Ghostse]

Never would have expected Bessent to be the member of the admin most publicly excited about watching Iran's economy crumble, but I'm not against it.
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I get it. He's an econ-nerd, and this is his moment to watch a nation completely collapse by its application. Milspergery, but with money.

I don't know where this guy's getting his info, or if he's just wishcasting, but it's an interesting hypothesis.
He called out Pakistan for being a bunch of two-faced grifters, so he's definitely smarter than most OSINT accounts.
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This reads like some feverdream wish casting. I don't see any reason Trump would wait for May 13th to resume military action or why that date in particular would make Iran's economic fortunes hit a specific breaking point.
Edit: OK, I guess I could see Trump trying to use the blockade of Iran's closure of the straight of homoz to ensure maximum pressure on Xi going into their meeting. And maybe that's the X factor I'm missing. But it seems tenuous.

That Israeli OSINT account seems really impressed with how America is choking Iran's economy.
Mostly hearsay, but he would be one to have a semi-decent on-the-ground understanding of the situation compared to us Western royals.

So I'm guessing that above meeting with China is why they are pushing May 13th? I don't see how that is the day Iran gets buck-broken Rial-wrecked.

I was wondering about the May 13 reference in your previous post. Thanks for the addendum.

Same.

I sincerely hope we manage to run their economy into the ground before the AI bubble pops. To make the understatement of the year, that might possibly make waging a war halfway around the planet a bit hard.

Oh is that the new Turd World cope? "Iran's strategic martyrdom will cause the AI bubble to pop".
Yes, much like the DotCom bubble, that will clearly spell the complete end of the US economy and it will never recover.

 

[Snekposter]

For me, I have some big questions.
Is this permanent or temporary? Is this just the UAE dropping out until they raise funds to rebuild what Iran destroyed, maybe with the blessing (or at least understanding) of KSA? Or is this a bigger split, maybe covering up the UAE being pissed at KSA's limp response to Iranian attacks? Will KSA permit this or will they try to fuck with the UAE to get them back in the fold?

I'd argue its a result of economic rivalries, and at least not directly anything to do with getting hit. The Saudis are the number one economy in the Arabian Peninsula with the UAE being number two, and if the UAE ever tried to diversify enough to take that spot the Saudis would use their control of OPEC to wreck their shit by choking off their export quotas. With OPEC currently in disarray as a result of the ongoing conflict now is the perfect time to do it.

Don't forget that tensions have been building inside OEPC ever since Obama ditched the export bans since the only significant way for OPEC to try and keep the price of world oil high despite American exports would be for the KSA to cut back on pumping... which they really, really, really don't want to do for obvious reasons.

 

[Kokonut Kangs Klan]

UAE better watch out. Iran might fire missiles at them if they keep cozying up to America.

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Even Wikipedo knows OPEC is a gay sandnigger scam (archive archive).

The organisational logic that underpins OPEC is that it is in the collective interest of its members to limit the world oil supply in order to reap higher prices.[8] However, the main problem within OPEC is that it is individually rational for members to cheat on commitments and produce as much oil as possible.[8]

Political scientist Jeff Colgan has argued that OPEC has since the 1980s largely failed to achieve its goals (limits on world oil supply, stabilized prices, and raising of long-term average revenues).[8] He finds that members have cheated on 96% of their commitments.[8] The analysis spans over the period 1982–2009.[14] To the extent that member states comply with their commitments, it is because the commitments reflect what they would do even if OPEC did not exist. One large reason for the frequent cheating is that OPEC does not punish members for non-compliance with commitments.[8]

But I'm not sure why UAE needed to pull out if it's fake anyways, other than reclaiming lost izzat from the recent missile/drone attacks. Maybe this baits Iran into spazzing out and starting round 2?

 

[1999 prick]

Maybe they can try sending another proposal where they refuse to even touch nuclear, despite that being Trump's whole reason for launching the war in the first place.
Disappointed about his apparent reluctance to restart bombing soon, but it does tie into that previous OSINT post about him waiting until after his meeting with Xi, and it'll still take a few weeks for the USS Boxer to be within range anyway.
Besides, it's not like he's gonna publicly announce whether or not he really is about to start bombing shit again. The start of the war was so tightly-lipped that @Mr. Racewar1488 was convinced it was gonna be a boring night hours before it kicked off.
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Honestly I don't think the IRGC realize how deep in the shitter they economically are.
And are happy that the US isn't attacking them as it gives them more time to dig up their buried missiles and launchers.

"Just one more launcher!"

Even Wikipedo knows OPEC is a gay sandnigger scam (archive archive).

But I'm not sure why UAE needed to pull out if it's fake anyways, other than reclaiming lost izzat from the recent missile/drone attacks. Maybe this baits Iran into spazzing out and starting round 2?

It's hard to say why.
With how big of a role they play in OPEC they could have at least threaten them by leaving but nope just left.

 

[ThisIsGonnaBeGood]

It's hard to say why.
With how big of a role they play in OPEC they could have at least threaten them by leaving but nope just left.

They definitely seemed the most personally pissed off at Iran (they kept wanting to join the war, but Big Brother Saudi Arabia kept getting cold feet), so they probably just don't want to be part of a collective that includes them any longer.
Additionally, I saw a post today from an Emirati national saying that Iran has fucked the world economy up enough that they now consider the rise in oil prices to no longer be worth the pain they're suffering from other sectors of their economy, so they'd rather pump more and lower the cost than just keep coasting on higher prices.

 

[nelly98]

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A photo from a whiteboard on board the USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) carrier that has been at sea for over 10 months, which took part in the Maduro capture, and operations against Iran. "GQ" is an abbreviation for "general quarters", a term meaning when the ship is in its highest state of readiness for combat.

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A Japanese oil tanker “IDEMITSU MARU” is now crossing the Strait of Hormuz carrying about two million barrels of Saudi oil.

lol america thinks it can win this war when iran can get missles and drones within a few nanometers of american battleships

 

[Unarmed Gunman]

they are a smaller military, out-classed and out teched, with no hope of success except through strategic martyrdom. Their only goal is "try to survive until the americans get bored",

And yet a bunch of cave dwelling goatherders with rusty AK-47's managed to tie our hands for 20 fucking years next door in Afghanistan, and at the end of it they ended up right back in power, having extracted thousands of lives and trillions of dollars. Meanwhile, the brilliant trailer park minds like yours call that a victory. In fact, I'll bet you could drone on for paragraphs about why that was totally a W.

You think the national debt is the same as household debt, don't you?

Oh it's even better cuz it just makes money printer go brrrrrrrr and then we sit here like happy little goyim while trying to figure out why everything is so expensive and our middle class just gets saddled with a lifetime of debt. Great job, much victory!

Obviously our strategy must be working great, I mean look how much better the country keeps getting every year lol

 

[ThisIsGonnaBeGood]

Newsmax (so take it with a grain of salt since it's heavily Trump-biased) did a segment breaking down how the UAE leaving OPEC could push both it and SA to maximize their oil production in order to compete with each other, which would result in a surplus of 3M more barrels per day than what was being produced prior to the war starting, even with Iran completely cut off, and they have alternate routes to transport it that bypass the Strait.
Again, very , but the Invisible Hand is what it is.

5:19

 

[JayseeDenton]

This is neocon thinking, and it's what has led to us being almost $40 Trillion in debt with no hope for reversal.

This isn't even remotely true. The vast majority of the debt is citizen entitlement programs like social security, a small chunk of which is the federal government being indebted to you. (or rather it would be if you were american and not a brown turd worlder)

 

[Unarmed Gunman]

This isn't even remotely true.

Nigro you have no idea how much is spent on defense. You think you do because you look at the pie charts that your masters stick in front of your suspiciously long nose, but ask yourself a simple question - why can't the Pentagon pass an audit? We know how much they spend right? Should be easy for them to pass an audit, and yet...

And that ignores the knock-on effects from our wars. Prices increasing across the board costs consumers money and decreases our discretionary spending power. It won't show up as "defense related", despite it being a major cause.

 

[Kalergi]

This isn't even remotely true. The vast majority of the debt is citizen entitlement programs like social security, a small chunk of which is the federal government being indebted to you. (or rather it would be if you were american and not a brown turd worlder)

Since the thread got derailed a bit and it's relatively quiet right now, this is actually worth digging in to.

I don't think people realize just how much money the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services ALONE accounts for our massive debt service. Social Security is (mostly) paid for, and the shortfalls will largely be mitigated once most of the Boomers have finally died off. But Medicare/Medicaid? The only part of it that's funded is Part A, which is listed as the Federal Hospital Insurance Trust Fund in the annual Treasury statement. These are the numbers for last year's fiscal spending:

1) Total Deficit: $1.77 trillion
2) FHITF Receipts: $395 billion
3) Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Outlays: $2.484 trillion (yes, that's "trillion," with a "t")
Delta between 2 and 3: $2.089 trillion

As much as I appreciate Elon and DOGE trying to cut back on wasteful government spending, it would have been a drop in the bucket without taking on that massive elephant of medical spending directly. Which would have meant digging in to a lot of jeet-run "medical practices" and various blue-state run reindeer games that are probably ripping us off for hundreds of billions, at the very least, and that we're only finding out about now because Nick Shirley decided to fucking embarrass Calitard cockroaches to the point they're trying to get a law passed forbidding transparency of how they're ripping off American taxpayers.

The MIC, for all its waste, doesn't even come fucking CLOSE to what we spend on medical costs for our hyper-obese "poor" and illegals scamming us, with the blessing of the Democrats and Chamber of Commerce Republicans. It's why I always laugh at people malding out about military spending. When these people start proposing a tax rate that will cover Medicaid costs alone, then I'll start taking them seriously.

Nigro you have no idea how much is spent on defense.

No, you ignorant faggot, we have a pretty good idea, because the Treasury issues a spending document every fucking fiscal year with the numbers listed.

 

[Unarmed Gunman]

No, you ignorant faggot, we have a pretty good idea, because the Treasury issues a spending document every fucking fiscal year with the numbers listed.

Pentagon can't account for 63% of nearly $4 trillion in assets​

lol

 

[Ghostse]

Latest "Just Trust Me Bro" grade wonk re: Trump saying "Iran told me they are collapsing" is going to be him trading Bridge and Powerplant Day for Coastal Defense and Speedboat - sorry, fast attack craft (that are incredibly small and speed boat-sized) - Day. Trump will use a supposed request by a party they are negotiating with to assist in opening the strait against "rogue military elements".
(that is: Oh Wow big stronk America, we would love to reopen the strait and get peace talks started again, but part of our mosaiced military refuses to follow stand down orders. Pretty please use your CSGs to Make Hormuz Open Again.)
I cannot find any one talking about this, so very likely to be bullshit but keep an eye on further Trump statements in that direction.

---

Actual news:
Three ships have transited the Straight of Homoz and exited the gulf today.

Idemitsu Maru is clear of the strait and the US blockade. It was listed as a destination of FOR ORDER (aka we're waiting for a destination while people bid on the cargo) during strait transit then switched to Nagoya, Japan once it was clear of Iranian waters.

The chemical tanker Starway transited the Strait for Oman. container Paya Lebar also crossed the Strait of Hormuz destined for India.

None of these ships are Iranian or carrying Iranian cargo.

https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/tankers/japanese-vlcc-transits-strait-of-hormuz

(no paywall, and unless you care about ship-flagging and specific ports, I've given you the good stuff).

Non-Iranian ships passing through the Straight of Homoz: 3
Ships bound for Iran or carrying Iranian cargo passing through the USN Blockade: 0

Clearly Iran is winning and the blockade is failing.

---

Newsmax (so take it with a grain of salt since it's heavily Trump-biased) did a segment breaking down how the UAE leaving OPEC could push both it and SA to maximize their oil production in order to compete with each other, which would result in a surplus of 3M more barrels per day than what was being produced prior to the war starting, even with Iran completely cut off, and they have alternate routes to transport it that bypass the Strait.
Again, very , but the Invisible Hand is what it is.
ssstwitter.com_1777430654158.mp4

UAE's East Side facilities are not very large; they could be expanded and maybe this is part of that play, but it won't be an immediate panacea on the current situation. But it might influence some of the futures market vibe trading.

If you want to see the effect such a thing might have, look at oil prices during Iran and KSA's proxy war in Yemen during Trump's first term. Both nations were funding proxies in Syria and Yemen (as well as others) and cranked official and unofficial production to max to fund their slapfight.

Asside:
Hilariously, we might have Obama's gift of 1.7 billion dollars to thank for that.
To tl;dr: Iran used the 1.7 billion dollars in unmarked, untraceable hard currency dropped by their fellow muslim for them to fund Hezbollah and the Houthis. KSA responded by increasing funding for their proxies to counter it, and you had both sides stuck in a "sunk cost ante spiral".

And yet a bunch of cave dwelling goatherders with rusty AK-47's managed to tie our hands for 20 fucking years next door in Afghanistan, and at the end of it they ended up right back in power, having extracted thousands of lives and trillions of dollars. Meanwhile, the brilliant trailer park minds like yours call that a victory. In fact, I'll bet you could drone on for paragraphs about why that was totally a W.

MUH AFGANISTAN!
Ah what a well researched, original, and totally not BRIC sucking cope position.
Please point to what US ground troops IRGC mountain-shitting goatfuckers are shooting with AKs.
Are the IRGC mountain niggers in the room with us right now?

 

[Kalergi]

lol https://www.congress.gov/119/meeting/house/118371/documents/HHRG-119-GO06-20250611-SD004.pdf

lol https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/sta...ports/mts/MonthlyTreasuryStatement_202509.pdf

assets are not spending, you ignorant faggot. Unless you think real estate is money, too.

 

[Nice Stick]

Reboots are all the rage in Hollywood.
sssx.io_1776099735402.mp4
Give me a set of chocolate chip desert camo BDUs, OD ALICE gear, and a M16A2 and I'm down to liberate Kuwait.

Surely you mean a full auto M16A1. I can't imagine Mr Racewar being limited to 3 shot bursts.

 

[draggs]

Afghan war money cost estimate (2002-2021): $2.3 trillion
Iraq war money cost estimate (2003-2011): $2.2 trillion
US debt January 1 2001 estimate: $5.7 trillion
US debt estimate December 1 2011 (month of withdrawal from iraq): $15.1 trillion
medicare + medicaid cost 2002-2011 estimate: $7.4 trillion
US spending on social security 2002-2011 estimate: $5.8 trillion

Afghan + Iraq cost estimate (2002-2011): $4.5 trillion
Social security + medicare + medicaid cost estimate (2002-2011): $13.2 trillion

make of this what you will

 

[Clyde Cash's Left Teste]

ctual news:
Three ships have transited the Straight of Homoz today.

Idemitsu Maru is clear of the strait and the US blockade. It was listed as FOR ORDER (aka we're waiting for a destination while people bid on the cargo) then switched to Nagoya, Japan once it was clear of Iranian waters.

The chemical tanker Starway transited the Strait for Oman. container Paya Lebar also crossed the Strait of Hormuz destined for India.

https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/tankers/japanese-vlcc-transits-strait-of-hormuz (no paywall, and unless you care about ship-flagging and specific ports, I've given you the good stuff).

ships through the Straight of Homoz: 3
Ships bound for Iran through the USN Blockade: 0

Clearly Iran is winning and the blockade is failing.

So basically they were never Iranian ships hence why they were allowed out

 

[Ghostse]

So basically they were never Iranian ships hence why they were allowed out

correct, not hauling Iranian cargo or doing any business with iran. I edited my post to be a bit more clear.

Mainly just having a dig at MultiPolarings BRIC Suckers who keep coping about the ships supposedly making it through the USN blockade while ignoring ships that are able to leave the Persian Gulf Gulf of Trump through the straight of homoz

 

[Fanatical Pragmatist]

Nigro you have no idea how much is spent on defense. You think you do because you look at the pie charts that your masters stick in front of your suspiciously long nose, but ask yourself a simple question - why can't the Pentagon pass an audit? We know how much they spend right? Should be easy for them to pass an audit, and yet...

And that ignores the knock-on effects from our wars. Prices increasing across the board costs consumers money and decreases our discretionary spending power. It won't show up as "defense related", despite it being a major cause.

This doesn't even make sense.
You just like googled a bunch of economic words and threw them in a paragraph together with no understanding of what they mean.

Post hands.

Pentagon can't account for 63% of nearly $4 trillion in assets​

lol

You didn't even read your own source.

Also, failing an audit is not a debunk to publicly available fund allocation.

If I loan my friend $100 dollars, and a month passes, and I ask him "hey what did you do with that $100?" and they shrug and say "I don't know?" - that doesn't mean I don't know how much money I gave him (it would still be $100), it means I don't know what he spent it on.

Even assuming the situation is as bad as you imply (which your own article clarifies is more of an "incomplete" than a "fail") - we know what the US government GAVE to the Pentagon, what the issue is what they SPENT it on.
The total allocation remains the same.

 

[Unredacted TND]

I really doubt it will last until May 15.