Been reading yet another fretful discussion of a woman convicted for filing false rape reports (in the most recent thread, TEN of them). That thread's not exploded, but the refrains are the same: put her away for life, hang her high, execute her, rape her, make her compensate the men whose lives she ruined, sentence her to at least as long as a rape conviction would be. Suddenly, parity or more in prosecution or sentencing is really, really important.
Cute. For perspective on the scale and seriousness of the problem, I did some back-of-the-envelope calculations and analysis (primarily US):
Treat women false accusers as their rapist counterparts are treated?
Lol, then she'd been sitting pretty.
Context
Conviction rate for rape is under 3%: 443,000 occur each year in the US. Around 147,667 are reported (33.3%*), of which about 22,150 (15% of reported; 5% of total) result in arrest, and 12,404 (56% of arrests; 8.4% of reports; 2.8% of total) lead to a conviction of some sort (which might be a misdemeanor or lesser felony) .
* as low as 10% across all sexual abuse allegations.
False reports
Of rape reports (the 147,667), it is estimated an average of 5% are "false" - whether falsely accusing a specific person, falsely claiming to have been raped without naming a specific person, or in some cases depending on jurisdiction, simply an accusation that is withdrawn, partially true, or unproveable, but call it 7,383 as a generous average. Also note that it's been considered that only 20% of false accusations name a person. But even including it all (as always, generously), that translates to a number equivalent to 1.6% of actual rapes per year.
But reports deemed "false reports" in statistical reviews often include more than intentional falsity or named accusations. Using the asserted 20% from above, the 7383 "false reports" are more like 1476. 1476 false reports (which may or may not have a public or actual impact) is 0.33% by volume comparison to the 443,000 number of rapes. 90% of rape victims are female; 95-99% of rapists are male. So 421,000 - 439,000 rapes (average: 430,000) per year are by men, of which 97.2% get off scot-free. 417,960 vs 1,476 (some of which are prosecuted, but again generously, let's assume 0 are).
The average man has a minuscule likelihood of being falsely accused of rape - I've seen 0.00021% to 0.005% - a fraction of the likelihood of being hit by lightning.
Outcomes
People convicted of rape/ sexual assault on the basis of a false accusation and later exonerated total about 170 over the last 27 years, or an average of 6.3/ year**. Contrast to 432,511, based on the math, of rapes per year not resulting in any conviction.
**88 of the convicted and later exonerated were black; 73 of the convicted and later exonerated were white. Of the alleged victims, 119 were white, and 34 were black. 1 accused got probation, 13 were not sentenced, and the rest were given incarceration. Cases stemming from false allegations are nearly 10 times less likely to result in a conviction than a dismissal or acquittal.
Among those convicted and later exonerated for sexual assault based primarily on victim report, about 75% were based on a specific false accusation and 25% based on misidentification. This means about
0.45% - 2.0% of total reports to authorities that resulted in a conviction were false accusations of a particular person.
But of course damage is not limited to conviction, as - just as with being raped - the non-judicial impacts can be significant (see below).
As for commensurate punishment:
Average sentence for the 2.8% of rape convictions is about 14 years, of which about 40% on average is actually served. The high numbers reflect some states having mandatory minimums, as well as the propensity of convicted rapists to have a high criminal score: 37% of convicted perpetrators have had at least one felony conviction before their rape conviction and sentencing for the instant charges; 10% have had more than 5; multiple convictions in the current trial could also skew the average up. But penalties for perjury are not typically structured the same as for rape or typically subject to the same mandatory minimums, where those exist - just the same as false accusations of murder (or any crime) are not treated similarly under the law as actual murder (or other crime).
Some have said that the falsely accused should somehow be compensated for the damage done. A parallel equity of recompense would mean they should do what they do for rape victims whose lives are ruined by a rapist: nothing, despite the real costs of being raped:
Financial Burden of Sexual Violence
- The estimated lifetime cost of rape is $122,461 per victim, or a population economic burden of nearly $3.1 trillion (2014 U.S. dollars) over victims’ lifetimes. (Based on data indicating more than 25 million U.S. adults have been raped.)
- This study, by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, estimated:
- $1.2 trillion (39% of total) in medical costs;
- $1.6 trillion (52%) in lost work productivity among victims and perpetrators;
- $234 billion (8%) in criminal justice activities; and
- $36 billion (1%) in other costs, including victim property loss or damage.
- Annually, rape costs the U.S. more than any other crime ($127 billion), followed by assault ($93 billion), murder ($71 billion), and drunk driving, including fatalities ($61 billion)
- 81% of raped women report significant short- or long-term impacts such as Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD)
2017 study of privately insured women found:
- Out of a sample of 1,355 female sexual assault victims ages 16-61 who received treatment at a hospital, 88% of victims incurred charges.
- Patients who were admitted into the hospital paid an average of $788 for their inpatient stay.
- Patients who were not admitted paid an average of $316 for total outpatient costs.
- The study also found that “in 2013, insurance providers and victims, collectively, paid $9,129,284 for medical services received because of the rape.
- The average rape cost was $6,737, of which 86%, or $5,789, was paid by the insurance provider and 14%, or $948, was paid by the victim.”
Ted Talk thanks.
But it's like, 'if a girl has a look that you don't find attractive, maybe she's not looking to attract you'… Their comments make it seem like the scrotes really needed a meme to explain this to them
