I think what really terrified Putin is the fact that we fucked over Russian and Chinese air defenses in Venezuela, and now are doing the same thing in Iran. So he's realized that there is probably nothing stopping us in the event of a Russo-American war from just bombing Moscow into the stonage without the use of Nukes.
So, as someone who I believe has earned my anti-Russian posting cred, I'm going to glaze Russia for a hot second.
1) Russia still has enough quantity and just-enough quality of air assets to challenge US air power and potentially inflict casualties and disrupt operations. Maybe not win in a long, protracted engagement, but enough to stop the kind of "we own your skies in 24 hours" shit we saw in Iraq & Iran.
2) Russian air defense is way more fragile and way more porous than advertised - but it's far from a paper tiger and far from harmless. Unlike Iran, they have the critical mass of air defense and the proper integration to survive several rounds of DEAD and targeted ops and continue to pose as a threat.
3) Russia would require a large munitions investment to overwhelm. While this might be fine in a protracted war where the US govt can just say "fuck it, Raytheon open more factories", it's bad for a short-war. The stockpile of munitions needed to overwhelm Russia would be much much more than what was needed to overrun Iran.
This also means it would take much longer for the US to build up against Russia and any pre-emptive strike would put back the US even further.
4) It's both a blessing and a curse, but Russia is huge. This makes it harder for Russia to defend against gaps in their air network but it also means the US would take a much much harder logistical burden to exploit every angle and cover every counter-strike on bases/logistical hubs/etc.
Yes. A lot of Russian systems are overhyped. Especially the S-300/S-350/S-400 systems.
Not because they're bad SAMs, just because JSC Rosboronexport dumped advertising funds + a combo of turd-worldist/AoR fanboys and gullible faggots in the West doing it free, ended up turning a "good enough" long-range SAM into a fucking magic Wakanda shield that just shoots down all missiles and instantly nullifies American air power.
But overall, it's just good enough Russia still has
mostly enough gear to actually
challenge US air power, which is basically the backbone of all other US operations aside from cyber/psyops/HUMINT shit.
All this to say that, while the US would probably overpower Russia eventually in a longer war, Russia is not vulnerable to the kind of quick operation we've seen against Venezuela or Iran.
And again for what it's worth I'm generally a huge "hawk" on Russia.
