Iran Crisis & the 2026 War between Iran and the United States, Gulf States, and Israel - Please focus on news and coverage, not argumentation.

[Chuckwagon]

The 40th day since someone's death is apparently a special day for their memorial in Iranian culture (chehelom), and the Iranian protesters have opted to commemorate their fallen by answering those huge diaspora demonstrations by going right back out onto the streets to pitch some more of their own, in spite of the grave threat posed by the Islamic authorities. For example, at the memorial of Hamid Mahdavi (a firefighter who was killed while carrying other protesters away from the suppression forces on his back):

The Behesht-e Zahra, biggest graveyard in the capital:

Mashhad, Iran's second-biggest city and previously the site of some of the harshest repressions:

Najafabad, a medium-sized provincial city (population of 235k) in central Iran:

The Kurdish town of Abdanan in Iran's far west (protest there already started last night, as Abdanan was an early locus of resistance - it was where those cops were seen on video siding with the protesters - and thus, got repressed with tons of brute force earlier than most):

Alas, the Mullahs obviously didn't sit idle and have sent out their forces to once again suppress these protests wherever they're found. They blocked the entrances of the Abdanan graveyard today, for instance, and opened fire on the gathered demonstrators there, causing no small amount of panic - they're still blasting away with machine guns as of later in the day:

The Islamists also stormed the village of Chenar and arrested hundreds of dissidents there (it's a village of about 2,000 apparently, so even 'just' 200 arrests would mean 10% of the local population got vanned). Hope the next shipment of smuggled Starlink terminals also comes with guns & ammo...

 

[mindlessobserver]

The fact the Ford task group is being sent to join the Abe is the biggest indication yet that shit will go down. The US only puts two carriers in one place when it really wants to blow shit up.

Any word on if they are sending those Marine Assault Ships too?

 

[Catch The Rainbow]

I remember reading an article by some Israeli general from the 90s that said Israel has been in danger of being over reliant on its air force to the detriment of its ground forces. The last lebanon war they weren't able to advance deeper into the country due to fierce resistance so they just started more bombing. The last large engagement where they took a sizable amount of territory was gaza, right? And the ground fighting there wasnt anything close to a war between two modern nation states.

Which part did you disagree with?

Largely accurate but you underestimate how effective the IDF ground forces are.

Also it's Purim on March 2nd. Will be interesting to see the timing

 

[The Dude]

The fact the Ford task group is being sent to join the Abe is the biggest indication yet that shit will go down. The US only puts two carriers in one place when it really wants to blow shit up.

Any word on if they are sending those Marine Assault Ships too?

Yep. Two carrier strike groups is a massive force multiplier. More aircraft sorties, more rearming and refueling, more guided missile vessels striking targets and shooting down any potential threats. It is a huge commitment of force and a very clear statement.

 

[Sensitive Young Man]

Also it's Purim on March 2nd. Will be interesting to see the timing

Maybe they’ll do a Berlin Airlift with hamantaschen?

 

[Maori Kiwifruit Growers]

I remember reading an article by some Israeli general from the 90s that said Israel has been in danger of being over reliant on its air force to the detriment of its ground forces. The last lebanon war they weren't able to advance deeper into the country due to fierce resistance so they just started more bombing. The last large engagement where they took a sizable amount of territory was gaza, right? And the ground fighting there wasnt anything close to a war between two modern nation states.

Which part did you disagree with?

Most of it. Catch the Rainbow got it correct. Also draggs.

 

[draggs]

I remember reading an article by some Israeli general from the 90s that said Israel has been in danger of being over reliant on its air force to the detriment of its ground forces. The last lebanon war they weren't able to advance deeper into the country due to fierce resistance so they just started more bombing. The last large engagement where they took a sizable amount of territory was gaza, right? And the ground fighting there wasnt anything close to a war between two modern nation states.

Which part did you disagree with?

If by last Lebanon war you mean 2006, the strategy was bad, and in the last week the IDF smashed to the Litani River after the officers were told stop pussyfooting around

Modern nations war is air supremacy war, has been since and including ww2. You rule the air you win. Air Superiority Doctrine Apology Form goes here

Gaza is like 90% built up urban, there's no more difficult environment to fight in. Especially when it's been fortified for almost 20 years to the tune of billions of dollars spent. Israel solved this problem with minimal casualties by bombing the shit out of everything and using bulldozers to construct big earth-rubble berms block by block when advancing, basically building its own fortress inside the enemy fortress like the Romans used to do

 

[Maori Kiwifruit Growers]

If by last Lebanon war you mean 2006, the strategy was bad, and in the last week the IDF smashed to the Litani River after the officers were told stop pussyfooting around

Modern nations war is air supremacy war, has been since and including ww2. You rule the air you win. Air Superiority Doctrine Apology Form goes here

Gaza is like 90% built up urban, there's no more difficult environment to fight in. Especially when it's been fortified for almost 20 years to the tune of billions of dollars spent. Israel solved this problem with minimal casualties by bombing the shit out of everything and using bulldozers to construct big earth-rubble berms block by block when advancing, basically building its own fortress inside the enemy fortress like the Romans used to do

Can you go into the bulldozers and berms (and rome)? I thought the logic was "remove the close quarters of urban warfare by just removing the buildings". Some of my friends who served told me that if they came under fire (sniper, machine gun, rpg etc) they just blew up the building and moved on, instead of fighting the way up.

 

[draggs]

Can you go into the bulldozers and berms (and rome)? I thought the logic was "remove the close quarters of urban warfare by just removing the buildings". Some of my friends who served told me that if they came under fire (sniper, machine gun, rpg etc) they just blew up the building and moved on, instead of fighting the way up.

A top Roman siege method was to build an armored tower with a projection coming out of it that soldiers would go through and emerge on top of the wall. Once they did, if resistance was still too strong to storm the rest of the city or fortress, they'd build their own fortifications on top of the wall and creep forward until they had enough soldiers up there to storm the rest

In Gaza the IDF used bulldozers to create big berms (like ten feet high in some cases) that would serve as cover for their infantry and vehicles. Hamas built up the entirety of Gaza as a fortress, above and below ground, so the berms served to channel Hamas attackers emerging from underground, and gave cover from Hamas fighters in buildings farther ahead. Then they'd probe the next section, turn it to rubble as much as necessary to end resistance, move forward, create another line of berms, repeat. A series of fortifications inside the fortress of Gaza

 

[Catch The Rainbow]

From this morning, already out of date:



From three hours ago, rapidly becoming out of date:

 

[warhammerautist]

How many BM's does Iran have? I am not as much concerned about ships as I am with the air bases.

 

[draggs]

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How many BM's does Iran have? I am not as much concerned about ships as I am with the air bases.

lol 2000 drones

That would be more than twice as large as the biggest drone attack in history: 800 Shaheds by Russia last fall. 60 got through. ~30 USN capital ships have far more capable anti-air than Ukraine does

The largest ballistic missile attack in history was Oct 1 2024 by Iran. 200 missiles launched at Israel. About 10% got through, most at Nevatim air base, and did no real damage except blowing a hole in the roof of a hangar. Iran has thousands of missiles but many fewer missile launchers. The US has shipped many more air defense units into CENTCOM than it had there last summer

 

[Sensitive Young Man]

Thoughts on any SpecOps action? I saw some equipment movement to Armenia and Azerbaijan around a week ago.

 

[Dharma bump]

Thoughts on any SpecOps action? I saw some equipment movement to Armenia and Azerbaijan around a week ago.

I saw something about a week ago claiming that there was a SOAR mob in the region, but haven't seen any mention of it since then.

I assume that US SpecOps do some serious tunnel/confined space combat training? I know we do and have always assumed its something that is wargamed together.

They are going to need it for those rabbit warrens.

 

[Scale Smerch]

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How many BM's does Iran have? I am not as much concerned about ships as I am with the air bases.

That's assuming unilateral actions against US carrier groups. Will be more than a few IRGC commanders who insist on sending a good chunk of those munitions at Israel instead.

 

[warhammerautist]

Those missiles have to have some high accuracy CEP with the assumption they don't move.

Technically if we go through with the war, then this would be the 1st war the U.S. ever had with a country that possessed long range strike capabilities.

 

[Total Annihilation]

I know this is from a LARP slide thread, but if only it was real (and not the plot from a COD game).

 

[Catch The Rainbow]

It's still going on







Faytuks Network tally shows 126 U.S. land-based fighter aircraft now positioned or heading toward the CENTCOM theater.

Significant forward posture shift in just days.

In the past 24 hours, 6 USAF E-3G Sentry AWACS aircraft have been observed deploying from the U.S. to Europe:

• 2x E-3Gs (DENALI 01 & 02) from Elmendorf AFB, Alaska to RAF Mildenhall, UK
• 4x E-3Gs (SHUCK 83, 84, 85 & 86) from Tinker AFB, Oklahoma to Ramstein AFB, Germany


(USAF has only 18 E-3 planes)

The scale and timing of this movement point to a clear shift in U.S. force posture as the military buildup tied to the Middle East accelerates. Large E-3 deployments are widely seen as a late-stage indicator ahead of potential major air operations.

 

[3-2-1836]

It's still going on

Wyświetl załącznik 8575999
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Faytuks Network tally shows 126 U.S. land-based fighter aircraft now positioned or heading toward the CENTCOM theater.

Significant forward posture shift in just days.

In the past 24 hours, 6 USAF E-3G Sentry AWACS aircraft have been observed deploying from the U.S. to Europe:

• 2x E-3Gs (DENALI 01 & 02) from Elmendorf AFB, Alaska to RAF Mildenhall, UK
• 4x E-3Gs (SHUCK 83, 84, 85 & 86) from Tinker AFB, Oklahoma to Ramstein AFB, Germany


(USAF has only 18 E-3 planes)

The scale and timing of this movement point to a clear shift in U.S. force posture as the military buildup tied to the Middle East accelerates. Large E-3 deployments are widely seen as a late-stage indicator ahead of potential major air operations.

How many E3s are already on station in CENTCOM besides these?

 

[Maori Kiwifruit Growers]

How many E3s are already on station in CENTCOM besides these?

No idea, but what's the over under that a majority of these operations are israel and the usa while the arabs complain and complain? Btw not to be an alarmist but between when this post is posted and tomorrow night I would top off your cars, snow plows or anything else that takes gasoline. Not because we're going to not have gasoline ( the United States is fuel independent and we are the largest producer of petroleum products and most of that comes from domestic shale), but if the Iranians shut down the strait (which they will try), it will raise global barrel prices. So if you don't want to pay extra I would top off. ESPECIALLY IF YOU'RE NOT AMERICAN as unlike us Americans most of your oil actually does come the middle east.