Iran Crisis & the 2026 War between Iran and the United States, Gulf States, and Israel - Please focus on news and coverage, not argumentation.

I'm sure Middle East Spectator would confirm it. If the protestors are getting guns it's either hunting rifles and shotguns they already own or G3s and AK-103s they're liberating from the IRGC and Basijs.

Speaking of MES:

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Having that many people with large flags is a great way to hide how few people are there by preventing wide shots of the crowd.

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Passed away or was killed?

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The regime is in total control! We won't turn on the internet anytime soon for, uh, reasons.

Look what I saw leaving Hawaii:
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I wonder where they're going.
Two-ship formation of KC-135s just departed Hickam headed south staying in the ADIZ.
NOVA02 appears to be tracking back towards them.
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NOVA02 might belong to one of the Tinker AFB squadrons. Maybe has a long trip back to Tinker or elsewhere...?
 

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Two-ship formation of KC-135s just departed Hickam headed south staying in the ADIZ.
NOVA02 appears to be tracking back towards them.
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NOVA02 might belong to one of the Tinker AFB squadrons. Maybe has a long trip back to Tinker or elsewhere...?
Fuck FlightRadar24, I ain't paying you shit so I can filter out commercial air traffic. I wish ADS-B tracked planes better.
 
My Iranian friend (expat) told me Mossad are distributing weapons to civilians on the ground, has this been confirmed somewhere?

I haven't heard anything about it, but to be honest, I wouldn't put it past the Mossad to do that. They built an entire kamikaze drone factory/base right next to Tehran, and no one noticed until they activated during the 12-day war. If they could do that, they certainly can smuggle in (or fuck build in secret factories) weapons. It's like those videos of Iranian soldiers saying they hate the regime. Could it be Mossad? Easily, like 50/50 chance easily. But if it took one video of a guy saying "fuck the regime" to cause mass defections, does it really matter after a point?
Praying for the liberation of the Iranian people from the garbage that is Islam. I'm going there as a tourist immediately once there's peace. Javid Shah!
Same
 
Speaking of MES:
"Our Admin team is composed of Iranian state security members, but you can trust us to be impartial and agenda-free"

My Iranian friend was seething about the report how Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Kuwait supposedly talked down Trump from striking Iran. He believes they are intentionally doing this to drag out the protests to weaken Iran more. His argument was, a strong Persia hurts the other sand kingdoms because Iran has far more geographic diversity and industry that would dwarf the other economies once it becomes free
I'll believe those nations spiked the process, but the rest is perzoid cope.

The shortest, and most accurate, summary is if Iran reforms to a stable country that doesn't fund international terrorism and is taken off the naughty boy list, oil revenues will dip as unsanctioned Iranian oil enters the market.
It will be even worse for these countries because Iran by necessity has maintained and built on its internal refining capabilities which has massive potential to scale; that is, they would be able to train on refined products not just raw crude which has a better profit margin.

They are also largely concerned about Shia muslims, or more specifically the Ayatollah enacting the Iranian version of the Samson Protocol on his way to being toppled; distribution of advanced weapons to inbred retards, and possible dirty bombs.

Each country has bones to pick with Iran, and Iran being off the naughty list will definitely weaken US support for their claims.
UAE has sovereignty disputes with Iran
Qatar has same plus some ethnic issues, I forget the specifics.
Saudi Arabia speaks for itself; they are concerned another powerful country nearby will likely eventually result in a hot conflict, and with Iran off the naughty boy list they can't just assume on full-throated US support.

SA also is viewing longer term issues, specifically:
SA is beholden to Wahabiists internally, having made the fire-and-brimstone the state religion and never getting to walk it back.
This means that a secular Iran will likely have warmer relations with Israel than SA will. This will put greater pressure on SA to make nice with the Jews, and that will cause friction with the Wahabiists.
They are likely wanting wrangle the situation such that Islamists come out on top.


Given a certain 'RELIGION OF PEACE' I wonder what the 'BOARD OF PEACE' means.
:thinking:
Its the American version of the Truck of Peace.
Its Trump giving people 2x4s and letting them wail on the Ayatollah.

I'm sorry but if you don't want to see Khamenei being force-feed bacon, impaled on a spike and paraded through Tehran in this state NOW NOW NOW, your whiteness is in question. I don't make the rules.
This but unironically.

Islam and democracy are incompatible. Democracy assumes that people are rational and vote for what they believe to be in their best interest. Muslims are not rational and make decisions based on delusions of a long-dead sodomized pedophile warlord. Regime's supporters need to be culled before democracy can be implemented.
They are not rational in a specific way. They are lazy and retarded believing thigns will happen if Allah wills them to or not, and thus completely abdicating responsibility for planning and anticipating long-term outcomes.

I think that's true but not the whole picture. A secular, forward-looking, pro-West and generally civilized Iran like what the Shah's empire used to be like would mean the West (primarily the US) would no longer have any reason to uphold its ties to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the other sandnigger kingdoms, and certainly no reason to tolerate their state-supported terrorism (while Hezbollah, Hamas & the Houthis will already wither to dust with their own Iranian lifeline being cut by Pahlavi or a newly elected gov't in Tehran, the Saudis as we well know are tied to all sorts of sandnigger terrorists; Qatar is in deep with the Muslim Brotherhood & friends, etc.). With the main Shiite sponsor of terrorism eliminated, America would also be free to complete its geostrategic pivot vs. China in East Asia, meaning a lot fewer assets & bases are needed in the Mideast.

If MBS, the Emir of Qatar, and others want to keep the Western $$$ and luxuries flowing, Western bases on their soil (so they can afford to keep their own armies in a shitty & easily controlled state, like the Saudi one which had access to all sorts of Western arms but was pretty ineffective against the Houthis) and Western eyes forced to turn away from their own shady business in the name of containing the greater threat posed by the Mullahs of Iran - and of course they do - it is absolutely in their interest to keep the Mullahs in charge. Or, at the very least, make Pahlavi & the Iranian people work much harder at higher cost to get rid of them.
I mostly agree, except even with a non-retarded Iran on the scene, the US would still have cause to deal with Saudi Arabia.
But Iran being a non-islamic hellhole means that they lose their bargaining position with the US when it comes to, as you point out, the US looking the other way on their state-sponsoring of terrorism and export of violent Jihad.

i.e. One of the ways Saudi Arabia deals with imams deemed to problematic/inflamitory is to just send them to mosques in Europe and America. This practice may suddenly come under scrutiny if there is a non-SA nation that the EU/US can negotiate with.

Western Journalists who support the Islamic Republic to “own Trump” should be pelted with stones.
Day of the rope cannot come soon enough

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Noor Pahlavi is cute. I hope she will be shabanu of Iran one day.
Looks like she'd have the means for some laser hair removal, so I'd arrive as a foreign conquer-king to three Islamic republics for a piece of that.
 
Axios says the head of the Mossad is in the US to talk to Witkoff

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The director of Israel's Mossad spy agency, David Barnea, arrived in the U.S. on Friday morning for talks on the situation in Iran, according to an Israeli source and another source with knowledge of the meeting.

Why it matters: Barnea's visit is part of the consultations between the U.S. and Israel over the protests in Iran and possible U.S. military action in response to the regime's crackdown.
  • Barnea is expected to meet in Miami with White House envoy Steve Witkoff, who is managing the direct channel of communication between the U.S. and Iran.
  • Witkoff has been in touch with Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, during the protests.
  • It's not yet clear whether Barnea will meet President Trump in Mar-a-Lago over the weekend.
Driving the news: Barnea's trip follows a phone call on Wednesday between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about the Iran crisis.

  • During the call, Netanyahu asked Trump to hold off on military action against Iran to give Israel more time to prepare for potential Iranian retaliation.
  • An Israeli source said that in addition to concerns about retaliation, the current U.S. plan includes strikes on security force targets in Iran, but is not seen by Israel as strong enough to meaningfully destabilize the regime.
  • U.S. officials say military action is still on the table if Iran resumes the killing of protesters. Israeli officials think that despite the delay, a U.S. military strike could take place in the coming days.
What to watch: The U.S. military is sending additional defensive and offensive capabilities to the region to be ready in case Trump orders a strike, U.S. sources say.

  • The Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier and its strike group are making their way to the Middle East from the South China Sea.
  • More air defense systems, fighter jets and possibly submarines are also expected to arrive in the region.
The intrigue: When he reached out to Witkoff, Araghchi proposed a meeting and the resumption of nuclear negotiations.


  • The Israeli government is concerned the Iranians will use such negotiations to buy time and relief from the U.S. pressure.
  • On the other hand, some officials think the current crisis could convince the Iranian regime to make concessions it refused to consider in the past, on the nuclear program, missile program, and proxy groups.
At a conference of the Israeli-American Council in Miami on Thursday night, Witkoff said he communicated with the Iranians the day before about the potential mass hangings.

  • "That has been shut down," Witkoff said.
  • Witkoff said he hopes it will be possible to get a diplomatic solution with Iran and noted that any deal will have to address uranium enrichment and Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium, Iran's inventory of ballistic missiles, and its network of proxies in the region.
  • Witkoff said Iran's economy was badly "stumbling" and if Tehran wants to change that and return to the community of nations, it can be accomplished through diplomacy. "The alternative will be a bad one."
 
"Our Admin team is composed of Iranian state security members, but you can trust us to be impartial and agenda-free"
Notice he said it was "like when we were in Syria". That admin is in the IRGC and probably an intel officer if he's running a Telegram account. The seething and coping in a couple of weeks when the bombing starts is going to be glorious and I'll be screenshotting all of it.
 
The USS George HW Bush and its carrier group left port today and is heading to the Med. It could set up shop off the coast of Israel and launch attacks or go through the Suez to join the Lincoln in a couple of weeks. It'll be in position in the Med in about 10 days. The C-17 I was tracking last night that took off from Creech AFB where we do a lot of drone testing landed in the UK this morning but hasn't taken off yet. Not much else, yet.
The USS Abraham Lincoln is also on the move from the South China Sea heading to the Persian Gulf.

It hasn't been said publicly yet but I assume the USS George Washington's crew is being recalled from Shore Leave in Yokosuka, and they will be heading to take up station where the Lincoln was.
 
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The U.S. and Saudi Arabia have cleared non-essential aircraft from Prince Sultan Air Base amid regional tensions.

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The Russian Tu-204 and a Polish 737 are flying into Israel to evacuate their citizens.
 
You guys seem to know a lot more about geopolitics stuff than I do, so I'll just ask: If the US is pulling Naval assets from the South China Sea and nearby areas, is there a chance that China will take the opportunity to invade Taiwan while we're out of position?
 
You guys seem to know a lot more about geopolitics stuff than I do, so I'll just ask: If the US is pulling Naval assets from the South China Sea and nearby areas, is there a chance that China will take the opportunity to invade Taiwan while we're out of position?
lol, no. The Chi-Coms wouldn't do something that stupid. They've never fought a naval battle nor have they ever done amphibious landings. Taiwan has four or five beaches suitable for landings and they're all defended to hell and back. If they do anything they'd take the two or three islands just off their coast that Taiwan still controls but that's extremely unlikely. If they fuck up an invasion Xi would lose face and be couped in a week.
 
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