I'll throw my two cents into the ring.
I've been mulling this over a bit. I think a lot of people are misinterpreting the true purpose of this operation. It's not (just) about the oil - we have plenty of oil already and gas prices are the lowest they have been in a while. It's not (just) about the drugs - we've been killcamming drug boats for months at this point and the border is sealed shut. It's not (just) about the migrants - we've been deporting them, even if the pace is a bit too slow for people's liking. It's not even about the idea of kicking BRICS out of America's hemisphere. All of these are happy bonuses, sure, but in my view, the number one objective of this operation is
power projection and
re-establishment of deterrence, plain and simple. Trump said himself (I think, I already forgot - someone said that, at least) that "Maduro was the objective, but not the message". In geopolitical arenas that actually matter, the "speak softly" approach isn't working right now for us. Russia is still fighting Ukraine. China is still making moves in the Pacific. Europe still doesn't take us or our values very seriously. Even the Iranians are rebuilding their missile stockpiles and preparing for round 2 against our Greatest Ally(tm).
If speaking softly doesn't work, its time to use the big stick. This is the primary purpose of capturing Maduro, to showcase that America is no longer fucking around. Trump has brought the
DonMonroe Doctrine back into the public discourse. That tells you everything you need to know. The American Hemisphere will become American again. Trump floated military action against three more Latin American countries in his press conference. The message is obvious: get in line or get shafted by the full power of the United States Military.
But here's the problem. 20 years in the sandbox for what was basically nothing has made the American people fatigued of endless war. "Boots on the ground" is the phrase nobody but the Uniparty wants to hear. Doing that would probably sink Trump's term dead in the water. How do you establish dominance in big stick diplomacy without boots on the ground? The answer is through stuff like what we saw just now. Shock and awe bombing, lightning-fast narrow-scope operations, then hoping that the adversary isn't suicidal enough to draw us into a prolonged conflict with them (see: Iran). It's an inherit gamble. This is Trump's biggest one (so far) of his current term, in my view. It could do the trick, or it could send the whole hemisphere into bloody chaos.
We will see how the gamble plays out over the coming days and weeks. Because we're unwilling to deploy troops to Venezuela and do direct administration right now (otherwise we would've just done it), the decision on whether Venezuela will follow our demands or drag us into yet another quagmire is entirely up to them. Maybe backroom deals are in motion, I don't know. They've just sworn in their Vice President. Of course they will scream rhetoric, but rhetoric doesn't matter. What matters is what they do. Hopefully they step down from power, listen to us, let us just take their oil and let capitalist economics turn them into an actual functioning country again. Nobody else has to die. But if they don't, or the situation heavily destabilizes (civil war, insurgency), then we'll have to do more strikes and inevitably get ourselves involved in yet another shitshow that could destabilize the whole continent and lead to Americans coming home in boxes again. That's the big gamble.
Let's pray it goes our way.