2025 US and Venezuela Conflict - Operation Just Cause 2: 2 Just 2 Cause

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MadStan powiedział(a):
I don’t think this is gamesmanship. I think an attack on Venezuela is genuinely on the cards. Mad Man Maduro would have to concede a ridiculous number of points to stop US intervention and frankly I would think he is being asked to concede on things he can not so that the prelude for an attack is justified.

Played well, this could be very good for the USA. Played poorly this could be a black swan event.
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Get the US bogged down in a South American war or at least create the illusion of that happening if the us invaded . The activation of civilian paramilitary groups and arming them in wartime would end badly as without direct control from government handlers warlords become an issue.
 
My gut feeling that that invading Venezuela (not just an air campaign) would an Iraq-level mistake. Unless they are able to get a replacement regime up and running very quickly (and given the competency of the opposition, that a big ask), they will stuck for years in a big country with millions of people with a grudge and a bunch of suppliers eager to support them from afar. It could destabilize Colombia, with its millions of people and other countries in the region. It would probably increase the number of people arriving at the US' southern borders, taxing the resources there as well. All while American resources are needed for other fronts. Meanwhile, the current regime is so weak that it can easily deterred with minimal amounts of manpower and material.

I see very few upsides and too many downsides in a land invasion.
 
Glad I couldn't help powiedział(a):
My gut feeling that that invading Venezuela (not just an air campaign) would an Iraq-level mistake. Unless they are able to get a replacement regime up and running very quickly (and given the competency of the opposition, that a big ask), they will stuck for years in a big country with millions of people with a grudge and a bunch of suppliers eager to support them from afar. It could destabilize Colombia, with its millions of people and other countries in the region. It would probably increase the number of people arriving at the US' southern borders, taxing the resources there as well. All while American resources are needed for other fronts. Meanwhile, the current regime is so weak that it can easily deterred with minimal amounts of manpower and material.

I see very few upsides and too many downsides in a land invasion.
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Where the f would the troops even come from?

It’s not the 2000’s any more. America doesn’t have hundreds of thousands of troops to just send off.

(Nor really the naval infrastructure to land them. Iraq was always dependent on having Saudi Arabia there for staging.)

It would take an absolute massive amount of troops to invade and hold a country the size of Venezuela or city the size of Buenos Aires.
 
Hungry Wes Borland powiedział(a):
Sincere slightly ignorant question: is the buildup there even sufficient for anything more than intimidation? Please burger retards spare me the jingoism and just be real. What could conceivably be achieved with the amount of ships now in the area of Venezuela?
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Right now the US has 13% of its surface fleet operating within striking distance of Venezuela which is more than just intimidation. Venezuela is also close enough that we can send bombers from CONUS and only refuel them once they're airborne. There's also Puerto Rico with large USAF and USN bases as well as Gitmo which has a large port. This isn't just about Venezuela at this point, I think Trump is getting ready to take out Cuba as well.

As for how the war will go expect something like Operation: Just Cause where we invaded Panama to overthrow a CIA trained drug runner president. High ranking officers in the Bolivar Militia or whatever they call their military are getting calls from the CIA and State Dept. right now talking about who wants to be dictator after Maduro gets churroed and supply us with the shitty swamp sludge they call crude oil. People who say we shouldn't send in ground forces because we'll be drawn into a decades long guerilla war have been burned by our Middle East adventures and think everyone we fight are the Shi'ite militias in Fallujah. No one wants to die to prevent the churroing of Maduro and Catholics aren't big into the whole martyrdom thing. A decapitation strike after we decide which military officer makes the most easily controlled dictator followed by SpecOps teams taking out anyone close to Maduro will be enough to secure the country. This isn't Iraq, we don't need to send in 100k troops to control the country.

In short, Maduro's getting churroed within the next six months.
 
Mr. Racewar1488 powiedział(a):
I think Trump is getting ready to take out Cuba as well.
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Attack on Cuba sounds far-fetched, as much as I would love this commie circus to burn down. Cuba regime is solidified over the last 65 years, with hardcore dogmatic Leninist dictatorship, while Venezuela has been socialist for only 25 years by now. Though with Warsaw pact gone, Russia occupied with we all know what and chinkoids wanting cash, maybe it is viable? I don't know jackshit about Cuba's military power.
 
Glad I couldn't help powiedział(a):
My gut feeling that that invading Venezuela (not just an air campaign) would an Iraq-level mistake. Unless they are able to get a replacement regime up and running very quickly (and given the competency of the opposition, that a big ask), they will stuck for years in a big country with millions of people with a grudge and a bunch of suppliers eager to support them from afar. It could destabilize Colombia, with its millions of people and other countries in the region. It would probably increase the number of people arriving at the US' southern borders, taxing the resources there as well. All while American resources are needed for other fronts. Meanwhile, the current regime is so weak that it can easily deterred with minimal amounts of manpower and material.

I see very few upsides and too many downsides in a land invasion.
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Everyone hates Maduro, I highly doubt people would give their lives to defend him.
 
I am here to once again say that the entire world should be banding together to gutshot narcoterrorists, sink their boats, and leave them to slowly bleed out in shark-infested waters.

This is also what we should be doing to turd-world rapefugee boats, if you ask me - just rake a machine gun or two across the deck at about waist height, pop a few tube-launched grenades into the hull at the waterline, and leave while the local sealife enjoys the feast.
 
Ed Special powiedział(a):
I am here to once again say that the entire world should be banding together to gutshot narcoterrorists, sink their boats, and leave them to slowly bleed out in shark-infested waters.

This is also what we should be doing to turd-world rapefugee boats, if you ask me - just rake a machine gun or two across the deck at about waist height, pop a few tube-launched grenades into the hull at the waterline, and leave while the local sealife enjoys the feast.
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Opinion disregarded. Reason: poster is fat.
Ed Special hand Fat.webp
 
Seethan Ralph powiedział(a):
Attack on Cuba sounds far-fetched, as much as I would love this commie circus to burn down. Cuba regime is solidified over the last 65 years, with hardcore dogmatic Leninist dictatorship, while Venezuela has been socialist for only 25 years by now. Though with Warsaw pact gone, Russia occupied with we all know what and chinkoids wanting cash, maybe it is viable? I don't know jackshit about Cuba's military power.
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Cuba's military is really showing its age. They were a viable force in the 60's & 70's, even had their own "Vietnam" in Angola (long, drawn-out bush war that accomplished little and just gave a bunch of veterans injuries and PTSD) and were able to "export revolution" and help commies in Grenada stage a coup.

However, their military equipment is pretty much restricted to that timeframe, is considerably smaller than anything the US would bring to the table. Their air force is woefully small and outdated, with their best fighter being the MiG-29 - of which the US literally has more working models in licensed private hands than the entire Cuban air force. They have no long-range air defense to speak of, and only older medium and short-range systems. This is further exacerbated by the fact the US doesn't even necessarily need naval power and could establish air superiority over Cuba from the mainland US + Puerto Rico.

The worst Cuba could maybe pull off conventionally is zerg-rushing Guantanamo Bay at the cost of huge casualties but a possible PR win.

Other than that the Cuban regime hardliners would pretty much be forced to guerilla warfare.
 
Hungry Wes Borland powiedział(a):
Sincere slightly ignorant question: is the buildup there even sufficient for anything more than intimidation? Please burger retards spare me the jingoism and just be real. What could conceivably be achieved with the amount of ships now in the area of Venezuela?
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The ships and aircraft in the area could destroy the Venezuelan Navy and Air Force in a day or two and wreck their C&C and kill the ruling regime.
 
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