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After Biden went against oil, no way. Texas was relatively close in 2018 because Cruz was unpopular and O'Rourke didn't threaten the oil business...

Yes. He just needs one Midwest if everything goes right (He'll be at 260 if the cards play favorably, and all of the Midwest are double digits)...

Here's a PA-less win that I think is entirely reasonable. MI is the linchpin, and there can't be any surprises.