Iran Crisis & the 2026 War between Iran and the United States, Gulf States, and Israel - Please focus on news and coverage, not argumentation.

agreed, also i'm pretty sure the usn has been planning to guide/escort ships, especially oil tankers, through the strait of hormuz since the war began and iran began attacking merchant shipping going through it, so this isn't old news either

also imo the negotation stalling and constant pop-ups in my view benefit both sides, when trump announces new negotiations and they go on it gives maritime insurers and general investors confidence (which is why ships aren't going through the strait on their own), and if those new negotiations stall it benefits the IRGC as it gives them time to redeploy launchers, repair shit, so on and so forth
 
Ostatnio edytowane:
Also, supposedly Pezeshkian is trying to quit his job as Iran's nominal president, citing the IRGC dominating the gov't thoroughly & not letting him even pretend to have any power any more (basically). (Archive) I could've sworn I've read this headline like 3 or 4 times before already, so the IRGC's answer through the cold & dead/comatose lips of the Gayatollah will most probably remain the same as it was then: he won't be allowed to quit for the umpteenth time.
Reports not confirmed (IranIntl are confident enough to report though). But assuming true, who left was the Trump admin communicating with to work out some sort of deal? Hardliners in the IRGC won't agree to anything, I assume Trump's team was negotiating with Pezeshkian.
 
Just as easily as Iran calls Trump bluff in the Strait, Israel should do the same against Hezbollah.

If the ballistic missiles start flying from the Iranian caves at Tel Aviv, then its back to full scale war. Loosing Hezbollah hurts, a lot, but the IRGC can't do shit about it unless they want to loose their biggest weapon, stall tactics at the negotiating table.

As dangerous as it is, the US not reacting to missile site entrances being unburied is probably for the desire for Iran to strike Israel directly, which in turns, gets Israel to "break" the ceasefire from the allied side. I don't see Israel stopping in Lebanon until Hezbollah is further wrecked to the point of basically being a non-entity. Would be nice for the Lebanese army to get involved to also kill Hezbollah, but yes rainbows.

I'd also add that unburying the entrances likely doesn't indicate that the actual internal damage at those sites.
 
Kermashj.png
The Kermanshah Fire Department has announced that a gas explosion in the Bagh Abrisham neighborhood tonight caused a fire in a residential unit that spread to an adjacent building, resulting in two injuries.

➡️This is the second explosion in Iran caused by a gas leak tonight.
 
Wyświetl załącznik 9082742
The Kermanshah Fire Department has announced that a gas explosion in the Bagh Abrisham neighborhood tonight caused a fire in a residential unit that spread to an adjacent building, resulting in two injuries.

➡️This is the second explosion in Iran caused by a gas leak tonight.

The unbreakable ceasefire vs the immovable negotiation:

A series of exploding gas leaks rising into the hundreds daily including but not limited to underground mountain gas leaks, oil facility gas leaks, and - God willing - bridge and power plant gas leaks.

Ceasefire status? In tact.
Negotiation status? Proceeding fruitfully and imminently.
 
Wyświetl załącznik 9082742
The Kermanshah Fire Department has announced that a gas explosion in the Bagh Abrisham neighborhood tonight caused a fire in a residential unit that spread to an adjacent building, resulting in two injuries.

➡️This is the second explosion in Iran caused by a gas leak tonight.
Yeah it is extremely common for multi-tenant residential units to spontaneously spring a gas leak in a single air-tight apartment that allows the gas to build up to a suitable quantity and pressure -- without detection -- before initiating a high-order detonation with minimal or no damage to the rest of the gas system.

Building codes in Iran must be something else, man.
 
Yeah it is extremely common for multi-tenant residential units to spontaneously spring a gas leak in a single air-tight apartment that allows the gas to build up to a suitable quantity and pressure -- without detection -- before initiating a high-order detonation with minimal or no damage to the rest of the gas system.
Theres a running joke in Iran that Netanyahu works for the Iranian National Gas Company because so many 'natural gas explosions' seem to happen to IRGC officials.
GvhFA6NXsAAdJ37.jpg fe4271fc-79e8-48ee-9345-4deecfc0f08f_896x1242.jpg
 
What's funny about this is that I'm fairly certain that banisadr and rajai wanted there to be an actual government with elected officials, whereas the clerics wanted a theocracy.

Which is why Banisadr fled and Rajai was killed. (Probably by the cleric faction)

People really have to remember that Iran's revolution was made possible by young naive radicals, and the middle aged intellectuals thought they would be in charge, only for a bunch of ancient ayatollahs to take over.

Iran is a Great Gerontocracy of tradition, so I am laser beam focused on how that platitudinal domination of everyone else weighs against younger gens. Trump and Israel whether intentional or not, took out the boomer era leadership. Most of the retired IRGC, or the council of ancient clerics was left alone. Likewise, a lot of the younger generations were left alone unless they were field commanders deployed to Lebanon or what have you.

People can hand wave this, but starting with Solemani it's the biggest blow in Iranian history. You have retired leadership, old ayatollahs, and then a bunch of 30-50 year olds in charge now.
Taking out the leadership that actually remembers the Revolution is going to be one of the biggest long term affects of the war.
The unbreakable ceasefire vs the immovable negotiation:

A series of exploding gas leaks rising into the hundreds daily including but not limited to underground mountain gas leaks, oil facility gas leaks, and - God willing - bridge and power plant gas leaks.

Ceasefire status? In tact.
Negotiation status? Proceeding fruitfully and imminently.
The great thing about this is, even if most of the gas leaks aren't sabotage- the fact that its happening frequently would a sign that their infostructure is really weak
 
Not sure why the US isn't more alarmed by this.
Do we know they are or aren't?

For all we know, the heads of the USN and USAF could be having an aneurysm at the ceasefire letting Iran dig these out.

On the other hand, what we don't know:
1) launchers, launchers, launchers! How many TELs and what type of TELs does Iran have left?
Digging out a bunch of ammo from storage is less effective if you lack the launch platforms to use them.

2) What kind of missiles are in storage?
Are these all Sejjils and Korramshars or are these Fars and Shahabs?

3) What new equipment, capability or strategy can Iran employ now if shit goes hot that they didn't have back at the start?
What can Iran do to stop them from just getting buried again?

You have retired leadership, old ayatollahs, and then a bunch of 30-50 year olds in charge now.
Wait.
We killed all the boomers and now the working generation is in control?

Oh fuck we did do Iran a favor.
 
While I’m suspect of the ‘gas explosions’ myself, I’m pretty sure that’s a fucking meme at this point in terms of cover up excuses, I would like to suggest a counterpoint that ALSO isn’t ideal for Iran. That being they ARE actual gas explosions, or close enough that it isn’t actually them covering their asses, with the reason for them being that infrastructure is actively breaking down. That’s honestly not much better for Iran, imo, because if they’re having multiple gas leaks bad enough that they can explode that both isn’t good for their gas supplies AND suggests a whole litany of other issues.

So even if they’re telling the truth that’s REAL fucking bad for them.
 
Yeah it is extremely common for multi-tenant residential units to spontaneously spring a gas leak in a single air-tight apartment that allows the gas to build up to a suitable quantity and pressure -- without detection -- before initiating a high-order detonation with minimal or no damage to the rest of the gas system.

Building codes in Iran must be something else, man.
An Iranian apartment building just flew over my house
 
Page 2000, my God. This thread's now got 600 pages over the Ukrainian side of the Russo-Ukrainian threads, 900 over the Charlie Kirk assassination thread, and is 10x as long as the thread about the fall of Assad. The only war thread longer than this is the Russian side of the Russo-Ukrainian business.

Onwards to page 3000, here's hoping there won't still be a ceasefire by then. God only knows how much bluer people's balls can get if we were to actually go through 1000 more pages with no return to open hostilities.
 
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