- Dołączono
- 4 Lis 2017
As I keep telling people:
Wait until September before crowing about the IRGC's survival. Even if Trump just said "fuck this. we out" right now and just left everything as is and the Jews did the same, Iran is going to have a hot, dry summer to try to keep control of its population through.
That said, I do think you're right - as things stand they still come out of the summer in control. But it'll be a bumpy, fraught summer.
Goddammit.
Like I said yesterday, its technically correct and Iran did rules lawyer their way through it.
I expect Trump to change his mind about this being a violation and/or the US commitments to defending the UAE on Friday around 5:30pm EST. (market closes 4:30 but you need to factor in extended trading)
I'm 96% sure this is kayfabe designed to keep the IRGC watching their backs.
There is almost no chance the US is going to announce weapon deliveries to a country's civilians if we're actually doing it, as if its true it would justify the regime going full safeties off on the next large protest. My take is that Trump is trying to get the already paranoid and violent regime wound up so the next big protest in Iran turns into a blood bath that not even the Chinese can handwave.
Hell, I am surprised Trump just hasn't starting naming Random (surviving) IRGC officers and saying "Thank you for the productive dialog about peace" and just wait for the IRGC to start self-strategic martyring each other.
But I could be wrong, nothing in the described chain of events is far-fetched, its all complelely believable.
"You actions are unacceptable but other than calling them unacceptable we will take no further action and continue to call for peacetalks that leave you incharge so you can keep doing unhinged shit like this"
Fucking Euroserfs.
And don't forget letting muslims rape and murder them and their children.
Waving the Islamic Iranian Flag or Palestinian flag? That's just part and parcel of free speech in a modern country.
Flying the St. George/Union Jack? Oi there m8. That's a hate crime making immigrants feel unwelcome there, bruv. You got your flag loisence?
As in they want the Kurds to be on the recieving end?
That's another thing to consider but I feel like that's Trump getting a benefit from something he's already doing as opposed something he planned.
Or to sharpen focus a bit more:
Trump always intended to reduce strikes during market hours, and to paint Iran as the unhinged aggressor that can't be allowed to persist.
Him trying to use that to break the action into different parts to dodge the WPA is just a spin on somethign he intended to do anyway.
They are hitting the UAE because they can. Hitting Bahrain and Qatar is counter productive with their Shia populations and the fact they are stuck inside the Gulf.
Hitting Oman not only turns Oman against them, but is outside of Iran's effective capabilites currently. UAE is in range, and able to bypass the Straight of Homoz.
Trump hoped killing the leadership would make them fold. You don't bring the massive ammount of equipment the US did to the region if your plan was "ack one pedophile & his cabal".
Again, Trump HOPED it woudn't, but you don't move that much hardware for what you think is going to be a quickie. The biggest sign things haven't unfolded to plan is that the Boxer and Tripoli weren't already in theater, but they were on station after TWO MORE WEEKS.
again to spell that out a little better:
Trump sits down with his generals and outlines the collaboration with the Jews. He gets military assessments about how much airpower we would need to stomp Iran to certain level in
I am assuming Trump is waiting for something, but I have no idea what that could be.
Agreed. It also makes it hard to explain how a country with no navy can close the strait to normies.
Anyone in this thread with an IQ over room temperature understands that its all land-based attacks with the fear of speedboats, but for nomries they just think "water = Navy".
This is condense to hell but:
The USS Cole's effect on ship design cannot be over stated. The risk was already known and ship designs were being updated to account for the possibility, but the Cole attack put all that into laser focus. Ships got not only better sensors, but also with better weapons stations designed to allow shooting of small craft. It is not just the USN who took this lesson to heart, every navy and ship yard/design firm applied lessons.
Without turning this into offtopic:
You can look at Russian losses in the Black Sea. Ukraine has used USVs, basically remote-operated speed boats, to sink or otherwise put out of commission a good portion of Russia's fleet in the black sea. But when you look at what their USVs are hitting, with two exceptions (an intelligence ship and a a frigate) its all been warships that were laid down when the USSR was still "a thing". All their post-2000 warships have been able to avoid getting USV'd because there are no
There have been strikes on more modern warships, but its been missiles and drones, usually when they are in port.
(point of order: there have been some attacks in Russian harbors by what is suspected to be submersible drones, but those aren't speed boat types)
EA wasn't. Westwood Studios was, and they were still a quasi-independent entity inside EA at the time of Generals.
but given how even people's anuses are surveiled here in UAE. i heavily suspect they likely have snuffed everyone that was a threat to the sheikhs that rule the 7 Emirates+the head honcho that rules over the 7 emirates. Otherwise they wouldn't be spending cash on making their militaries competent. Especially now that iran has proven they must have a contingency plan if iran gets uppity again.