I think I'm just terminally depressed/online, but the biggest doomer takes I have is this:
1) There's no way to win Iran, it will be a stalemate, Trump looks like a chump for even trying. No ground invasion and gas prices don't recover easily. (FWIW, the gas prices were higher at this time of the year in 2022, and continued to rise).
2) SC picks the worst options in every case (post-ED counting, birthright, etc.) and SAVE Act is dead without major compromises.
3) Paxton will win the primary in Texas but loses against Talarico (a marginal loss, but a loss nonetheless) who had been campaigning, even if the local races stay Republican. Media praises as a win and treats TX as a swing state for 2028.
#1 I'm not sure about. There have been rumors of fuel shocks and "troops imminent" but I don't see it.
#2 is probably likely but who knows.
#3 I'm not sure about, the only polls that show Talarico up are Democrat-sponsored, and I don't even think he has as much charisma as Beto did. I still can't get it out of my head because I am doomer-pilled.
For number one, anyone stating that Iran will be an Iraq style land invasion can be immediately written off as a Niggercattle or someone trying to herd them. We needed 6 months to move assets into position for Iraq, a build up that was not done for Iran. We have quick deployment forces moving into the area, but that's a few thousand guys. Kharg Island is a probable target for something like that, but not the mainland. The Administration knows how unpopular land wars are with the base, it's likely positioning forces, to apply pressure in negotiations, that they really don't want to use.
However, Iran is being extremely retarded and a lose-lose situation may approach where Trump's violent boasting finally gets called as a bluff and we have to see what he does.
Another point I wanted to bring up is, the biggest difference between China and US Military technology is that we actually use ours. Wet brains like Studs, mental retards like groypers, and self defeating doomers all want to complain about the expense of the war, the loss of equipment, and the loss of servicemen's lives. The thing is, the real world experience is more valuable than anything that could be paid for. Knowing how systems actual work against peer(not much, maybe their drones) and near peer(stuff Russia and China sold them) is invaluable. Even the servicemen who lost their lives, while worst cost of the war, will probably save many more lives from the real world experience that will spread through out the entire armed forces if a major conflict ever breaks out.
Russia will have a much better military because of Ukraine. A lot of systems and doctrines got tested and were found to be lacking, and stuff that never could of been thought up on a white board were developed on the battlefield. The US Military is the best in the world because we actually use it. We train to a degree other countries see as insane, but even that's not enough. China is the ultimate Paper Tiger because it spends a lot, but has no real world experience. If it has asperations of taking Taiwan, what they really need is to stir up a conflict somewhere else first. I'm not saying the US would steamroll them, but I think their invasion will go much much more poorly if they try to punch the US military with a fist they've never swung before.
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