Russia is already China’s largest source of crude, accounting for 20 per cent of imports.
“Deepening energy ties with Russia will be one of the big takeaways of this — both crude and gas,” said Neil Beveridge, who leads Bernstein’s China energy research in Hong Kong.
“If Iran turns into a more pro-western state, or they thought it was going to be unstable for a long time, it will push the alliance between Russia and China even closer,” he added.
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Some efforts are already under way. An oil trader at a state-owned group in the eastern Chinese port of Ningbo, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said China’s oil majors had been increasing Russian shipments in recent weeks. The trader also pointed to plans by state oil group CNPC to restart a mothballed oil refinery unit in Dalian, north-eastern China, which would bolster capacity to handle further Russian imports.
In the longer term, the trader pointed to the emergence of
Arctic trading routes as polar ice melts, which would open up faster and cheaper shipping lanes for oil via Europe and lift volumes from Russia.
Analysts said Beijing would also consider accelerating plans to build the
Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, which would supply natural gas from north-west Russia through Mongolia and into China. The multibillion-dollar pipeline had been expected to be built by the early 2030s.