American officials have become used to thinking about European problems in
terms of insufficient military spending and economic stagnation. There is truth to
this, but Europe’s real problems are even deeper.
Continental Europe has been losing share of global GDP—down from 25 percent
in 1990 to 14 percent today—partly owing to national and transnational regulations
that undermine creativity and industriousness.
But this economic decline is eclipsed by the real and more stark prospect of
civilizational erasure. The larger issues facing Europe include activities of the
European Union and other transnational bodies that undermine political liberty and
sovereignty, migration policies that are transforming the continent and creating
strife, censorship of free speech and suppression of political opposition, cratering
birthrates, and loss of national identities and self-confidence.
Should present trends continue, the continent will be unrecognizable in 20 years or
less. As such, it is far from obvious whether certain European countries will have
economies and militaries strong enough to remain reliable allies. Many of these
nations are currently doubling down on their present path. We want Europe to
remain European, to regain its civilizational self-confidence, and to abandon its
failed focus on regulatory suffocation.
This lack of self-confidence is most evident in Europe’s relationship with Russia.
European allies enjoy a significant hard power advantage over Russia by almost
every measure, save nuclear weapons. As a result of Russia’s war in Ukraine,
European relations with Russia are now deeply attenuated, and many Europeans
regard Russia as an existential threat. Managing European relations with Russia
will require significant U.S. diplomatic engagement, both to reestablish conditions
of strategic stability across the Eurasian landmass, and to mitigate the risk of
conflict between Russia and European states.
It is a core interest of the United States to negotiate an expeditious cessation of
hostilities in Ukraine, in order to stabilize European economies, prevent
unintended escalation or expansion of the war, and reestablish strategic stability
with Russia, as well as to enable the post-hostilities reconstruction of Ukraine to
enable its survival as a viable state.
The Ukraine War has had the perverse effect of increasing Europe’s, especially
Germany’s, external dependencies. Today, German chemical companies are
building some of the world’s largest processing plants in China, using Russian gas
that they cannot obtain at home. The Trump Administration finds itself at odds with
European officials who hold unrealistic expectations for the war perched in
unstable minority governments, many of which trample on basic principles of
democracy to suppress opposition. A large European majority wants peace, yet that
desire is not translated into policy, in large measure because of those governments’
subversion of democratic processes. This is strategically important to the
United States precisely because European states cannot reform themselves if they
are trapped in political crisis.
Yet Europe remains strategically and culturally vital to the United States.
Transatlantic trade remains one of the pillars of the global economy and of
American prosperity. European sectors from manufacturing to technology to
energy remain among the world’s most robust. Europe is home to cutting-edge
scientific research and world-leading cultural institutions. Not only can we not
afford to write Europe off—doing so would be self-defeating for what this strategy
aims to achieve.
American diplomacy should continue to stand up for genuine democracy, freedom
of expression, and unapologetic celebrations of European nations’ individual
character and history. America encourages its political allies in Europe to promote
this revival of spirit, and the growing influence of patriotic European parties indeed
gives cause for great optimism.
Our goal should be to help Europe correct its current trajectory. We will need a
strong Europe to help us successfully compete, and to work in concert with us to
prevent any adversary from dominating Europe.
America is, understandably, sentimentally attached to the European continent—
and, of course, to Britain and Ireland. The character of these countries is also
strategically important because we count upon creative, capable, confident,
democratic allies to establish conditions of stability and security. We want to work
with aligned countries that want to restore their former greatness.
Over the long term, it is more than plausible that within a few decades at the latest,
certain NATO members will become majority non-European. As such, it is an open
question whether they will view their place in the world, or their alliance with the
United States, in the same way as those who signed the NATO charter.
Our broad policy for Europe should prioritize:
• Reestablishing conditions of stability within Europe and strategic stability
with Russia;
• Enabling Europe to stand on its own feet and operate as a group of aligned
sovereign nations, including by taking primary responsibility for its own
defense, without being dominated by any adversarial power;
• Cultivating resistance to Europe’s current trajectory within European
nations;
• Opening European markets to U.S. goods and services and ensuring fair
treatment of U.S. workers and businesses;
• Building up the healthy nations of Central, Eastern, and Southern Europe
through commercial ties, weapons sales, political collaboration, and cultural
and educational exchanges;
• Ending the perception, and preventing the reality, of NATO as a perpetually
expanding alliance; and
• Encouraging Europe to take action to combat mercantilist overcapacity,
technological theft, cyber espionage, and other hostile economic practices.
