To be entirely fair, Iran is ran by muslims, and muslims have an existential beef with literally everyone. Israel is a justification, not the reason they do retarded shit.
This is a really bad oversimplification of the region and it's how you lose to Muslims. Muslims are, to quote the Simpsons, a contentious people. Their biggest enemies are other Muslims. Europe/The West has tried to fight 'Islam in general' and has
never succeeded in the grand scheme of things because it's the one thing that gets them all to unite. Lepanto, for example, was a temporary reprieve that ended with the Ottomans just rebuilding their navy within a couple months and taking Cyprus. This is why the whole clash of civilizations framework is retarded. Every devastating victory over the Islamic world was won by allying with certain Muslim factions and dividing the Islamic world against itself. The Ottomans were finally dealt a deathblow by allying with the Arabs against them. The Abbasids were counterbalanced by the Shia Fatimids and recently invading Turks, which weakened the Islamic world enough for the Crusaders to establish a foothold in between their constantly quarrelling states. During the Fifth Crusade, the Crusaders actually allied with the Turkic Sultanate of Rum against the Ayyubids because their interests aligned.
Iran's genuine motivation is over Israel. It guides all of their terrorism, which is laser-focused on Israel. They don't hate Israel because they are Jews, and they don't hate Americans because they are Christian, and Israel doesn't hate Iran because they are Muslim, or Shia Muslim. They both hate each other because they see the establishment of the state of Israel as bone of contention that can't be resolved. The Saudis hate Iran because of their religion
much more than the Israelis do. If you ignore that you ignore the levers that can move various people in the region, and you destroy your ability to manipulate them in your favor.
He said regime change is on the table if Iran doesn't follow our terms. Trump is a fan of big stick diplomacy and Iran is getting the stick until they give Trump what he wants.
The whole 'big stick' quote was '
speak softly and
carry a big stick'. Not 'walk around like a lunatic beating people to death with a big stick and scream at them to do what you want or you'll beat them to death, which you are already doing'.
This is a retarded way to do diplomacy. Sun Tzu summed the concept up ages ago, he called it 'death ground', which is not just an actual place on the battleground but a psychological state of 'I've got nothing to lose'. If you put your enemy here as a general, you've failed, because they will dig their heels in and fight like hell, costing you unnecessary men and resources to progress. This is why the Mongols (most famously, but others as well) often left an intentional gap in their formations for enemies to escape through when they were facing down a crushing defeat. The enemy would think they had found an opening, break ranks, pour through, and run like mad only to be cut down in a panic.
The Iranians saw what happened to Gaddafi when he tried to bend the knee. They were just hit by Israel in the middle of negotiations. Why would they accept Trump's terms? What are the options that they are being given? 'Surrender, defang yourself, and become a vassal state or be bombed?' That's what Hitler offered to England in WW2, and it just pissed them off and hardened their resolve against him. When you put someone on death ground, they never surrender because they have nothing to gain by doing so. They just dig in and fight harder. The only example I can recall of this working is Japan in WWII, and that was because we had a one-of-a-kind weapon that completely upended the balance of war globally.
To tie both posts together, the Iranian regime should never be destroyed because they are a counterbalance in the region against Saudi and Turk interests. But that's basically what this course of action will accomplish - something that is in Israel's interest, not the interest of the West or America. If Iran is out of the picture what you will have is a power vacuum and a struggle between the Saudis and Turkey to reconstitute either the Caliphate or the Sultanate. With just two major players, it's a lot easier for one to lose and for the balance of power to be upset.
