Bank Run Watch 2023 after Silicon Valley Bank shutdown - Over 97% of SVB's assets were not FDIC insured

[IAmNotAlpharius]

I'm getting heavy GME vibes from this. Waiting on Robinhood and Fidelity to have service outages on those specific stocks.

Anyone who left their crypto on exchanges is in for a wake up call lmao.

 

[mindlessobserver]

My crypto portfolio is up 15% in the last few hours. I think I can guess where all the money is going. That, and gold and silver. Real estate stocks doing good too. This is looking like a full on cash liquidation into assets

 

[Quijibo69]

Everyone has to try harder because I still have to go into work later today. If I get layoff today that's a step in boring 1920s direction and I wanted Mad Max world on fire.

 

[Stoneheart]

DB is another Zombie bank that could very much go

DB will be fine, German Bonds are the go to place for scared money, so they will not get those massive loses, they also have a pretty stable and big user base.. the ECB is also not hawkish at all. You want to look out for French, Spanish and Italian banks, those could get fucked just as US banks did because their domestic bonds are dogshit.

 

[Big Lenny]

I busted ass to get into the industry I did and got an email this weekend that my company used SVB as their primary bank. I just wanted to be able to afford a house mf.

 

[Salubrious]

My personal opinion is that the bank crisis will only affect "normies" marginally.

What this signals more than anything is that the "venture capital" model of the tech industry is dead. For those that don't know, TL;DR - a significant percentage of tech startups don't have a goal of making a profit; their goal is to be bought out by Google or Amazon. Now with interest rates on the loans these companies relied on drying up, not to mention that Google and Amazon are just buying less nowadays, some of these tech companies will have to actually ::gasp:: turn a profit on their own. And a lot of them can't do that (aka Twitter).

I think this will be a good thing in the long run (software companies needing to make a profit will also lead to less DEI bullshit), but in the short-term next couple of years, we are probably looking at something similar to, but not unlike the dotCom bubble.

And for currently unemployed Software Engineers like me, Target is hiring while I wait this out and get some more certs.

Is this the right thread for this kind of analysis or should this go in a Tech thread?

 

[kurosawa]

Charles Schwab is having a "cash sorting" issue. (A) The question for account holders is do you pull your money out or wait and see if they're able to weather this.

From the write up:

While I think it would take a colossal outflow of deposits - something well north of $100bn - to take Schwab down, it would be foolish to deem this scenario impossible given the stench of panic pervading the air.

Edit - its hitting Europe. Credit Suisse's shares dropped 15%.

Spoiler: Via the Swiss National Bank they got $18 billion in a liquidity swap with the Fed last October.

 

[draggs]

My personal opinion is that the bank crisis will only affect "normies" marginally.

What this signals more than anything is that the "venture capital" model of the tech industry is dead. For those that don't know, TL;DR - a significant percentage of tech startups don't have a goal of making a profit; their goal is to be bought out by Google or Amazon. Now with interest rates on the loans these companies relied on drying up, not to mention that Google and Amazon are just buying less nowadays, some of these tech companies will have to actually ::gasp:: turn a profit on their own. And a lot of them can't do that (aka Twitter).

I think this will be a good thing in the long run (software companies needing to make a profit will also lead to less DEI bullshit), but in the short-term next couple of years, we are probably looking at something similar to, but not unlike the dotCom bubble.

And for currently unemployed Software Engineers like me, Target is hiring while I wait this out and get some more certs.

Is this the right thread for this kind of analysis or should this go in a Tech thread?

It's all the tech thread

Always has been

 

[make_it_so]

Is this the right thread for this kind of analysis or should this go in a Tech thread?

I think it's on topic enough - talking about why we're having these bank failures fits.

 

[Some Dumb Faggot]

So it's ok to blame the niggers and Vtuber people right?

 

[Mikoyan]

their goal is to be bought out by Google or Amazon.

Tech 'exits' for VCs have one of several paths. Acquisition and IPO are the two main ones. Usually (in my experience) these are pursued equally, though some people try hard to get Googled.

Meanwhile all major indicies are now up, even the NASDAQ - though I'd more charitably term it 'flat'. lmao doomcoomers btfo, though the rush into crypto and the automatic bank halts/declines are both impressive.

 

[Pentex]

First Republic Bank dropped nearly 78%.

Western Alliance Bancorporation down over 83%.

PacWest Bancorp down over 53%.

Burn motherfuckers, burn.

 

[Salubrious]

I think it's on topic enough - talking about why we're having these bank failures fits.

Ok, cool.
TL;DR

• 80%+ of businesses fail. Probably higher
• Most tech startups operate at a loss until they get bought out.
• Most tech startups are not profitable on their own merits.
• Amazon and Google are buying out less.
• The loans that these tech startups rely on are drying up.

Ergo:

Tech 'exits' for VCs have one of several paths. Acquisition and IPO are the two main ones. Usually (in my experience) these are pursued equally, though some people try hard to get Googled.

Meanwhile all major indicies are now up, even the NASDAQ - though I'd more charitably term it 'flat'. lmao doomcoomers btfo, though the rush into crypto and the automatic bank halts/declines are both impressive.

Agreed, except I think it's a 90-10 split. Most tech startups don't want to go the Big-Four IPO route. They just want a quick buck; get in, get bought out, count your money.

 

[HTTP Error 404]

The fed rate hike is not doomsday for banks. It's doomsday for banks that make money by using their customers money by locking it in the bond market. This is entirely avoided by not using your customers money to invest. But greedy bankers are greedy and deserve the rope.

Except that's exactly what the Biden admin and their financial teams told the banks to do in order to avoid another 2008.

Silicon Valley Bank Followed Exactly What Regulation Recommended | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Then they hiked the rates signaling the end of the free money party. But the banks are addicted to the free money, so...

 

[Mikoyan]

Ok, cool.
TL;DR

• 80%+ of businesses fail. Probably higher
• Most tech startups operate at a loss until they get bought out.
• Most tech startups are not profitable on their own merits.
• Amazon and Google are buying out less.
• The loans that these tech startups rely on are drying up.

Ergo:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=C-m3RtoguAQ

The goal of a startup is pretty much never to try to make a profit. It is to make the revenue line hockey stick upwards so they're an attractive IPO/acquisition target.

Your analysis is good though. The tech mania of the past almost 15 years has been driven by the money that low interest rates bring.

 

[Male Idiot]

While I still don't think its mad max, do have some ammo if there are nignogs in the area.

If a merchant jumps out of the window and breaks a tyrone's neck upon impact, there will be a spring of fiery but mostly peaceful love.

 

[Sithis]

A C C E L E R A T E

Retarded votes and election fraud have autistic consequences, have fun eating and owning the new recession, leftoids.

 

[WelperHelper99]

The goal of a startup is pretty much never to try to make a profit. It is to make the revenue line hockey stick upwards so they're an attractive IPO/acquisition target.

Your analysis is good though. The tech mania of the past almost 15 years has been driven by the money that low interest rates bring.

Imagine starting a buisness to make money. Sounds like it takes risk. Effort. A good product and marketing pitch. I for one welcome this change.

 

[Caesare]

it's got to be fucking bad before I take them, and only sparingly.

Yeah, that's your best bet.

 

[Feline Supremacist]

Except that's exactly what the Biden admin and their financial teams told the banks to do in order to avoid another 2008.

Wyświetl załącznik 4767985

Silicon Valley Bank Followed Exactly What Regulation Recommended | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Then they hiked the rates signaling the end of the free money party. But the banks are addicted to the free money, so...

The bank failure itself is not the problem (HSBC owns SVB now), its how it affects everything else. What 2008 perfectly demonstrated was Lehman and Bear-Stearn's subprime market backed securities crash affected everything else, and by the time Obongo finally took over Sallie Mae until it was straightened out, the damage had been done.