Russian Invasion of Ukraine Megathread

[A_Callow_Youth]

So, there was an incident yesterday.
Ukrainian AA shot down a supposed Russian Su-27 as was reported by Ukrainian telegram channels.
16545006184200.mp4
16544846933440.mp4
There's one thing though..

Spoiler: Whoops

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Supposedly from here
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ozerne_Air_Base
Shot down somewhere in Zaporozhie province.

Flashbacks to that point-blank tank shot debacle.
It seems there is something very wrong with communications on Ukrainian front line.

Counterpoint:

EDIT: This is probably wrong, stop giving it goodboy points.

 

[Su-27 Flanker-B]

Counterpoint:

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Half of the points here are reaffirming that it is an ukrainian plane after all, though. Plus it is assuming that the flame everywhere reached the given temperatures.

 

[A_Callow_Youth]

Half of the points here are reaffirming that it is an ukrainian plane after all, though. Plus it is assuming that the flame everywhere reached the given temperatures.

Maybe, I admit photoshop isn't my strong suit. I've mostly just been cruising around /k/ for the last few weeks, and the situation seems to be getting fluid enough that I figure it's worth seeking an outside perspective more coherent than the shills there.

 

[Givi]

Half of the points here are reaffirming that it is an ukrainian plane after all, though. Plus it is assuming that the flame everywhere reached the given temperatures.

It's worth mentioning that this wouldn't be the first friendly fire incident in the Ukrainian Air Force, in the first days of the war, a jet was shot down in Kyiv and hit an apartment building and it was later confirmed that it was FF. Fairly forgivable considering how chaotic the start of this war was.

Anyways, that jet in particular was confirmed Ukrainian. Russian MoD usually reports this kind of thing so they're either reporting with delay (not surprising) or this was shot down and news of it hadn't reached them yet.

Edit: See @kuuu reply to this post

Edit: The Russian MoD has taken to telegram to officially DEBOONK the claims that it was a Russian plane.

Fake: The APU shot down a Russian SU-25 plane. This is reported by Ukrainian telegram channels.

The truth: In fact, the downed plane is a Ukrainian MiG-29 (https://t.me/fighter_bomber/7489 ). On the recording, which shows the wreckage of the burnt-out car, the preserved right wing console is clearly visible. There are no suspension elements on it, characteristic (https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Су-25 ) for the "drying" family, and the wing ailerons and its geometry correspond exactly to the proportions of the MiG-29. There is no debris from the electronics container in the tail section. In addition, it is clearly visible that the downed aircraft has two keels, while the SU-25 has only one. It is almost impossible to confuse the SU-25 and MiG-29 even in the form of debris.

 

[Su-27 Flanker-B]

/k/

Well, here's your problem. K is so pro-ukrainian it's almost funny at places. Think of how pro-russian /pol/ is - /k/ is a polar opposite. You are right in looking for falsified info, but I really don't think that this was falsified.
What gave it out to me as a cope attempt was the thing about alignment of the plane number. They are not aligned to the rudder slit on any ukrainian plane. They sit on top of the coat of arms on 90degree relative to the length axis.

 

[Narcotics]

Just gonna drop to say that i'm dissapointed it's been like 100 days and there's still no foreseable end to this. Sad.

 

[Tom Nook's Gloryhole]

Just gonna drop to say that i'm dissapointed it's been like 100 days and there's still no foreseable end to this. Sad.

Grab a warm drink and just embrace the comfiness of it all. The world is dying around us and it's not like we can really do anything else but watch.

 

[A_Callow_Youth]

Well, here's your problem. K is so pro-ukrainian it's almost funny at places. Think of how pro-russian /pol/ is - /k/ is a polar opposite. You are right in looking for falsified info, but I really don't think that this was falsified.
What gave it out to me as a cope attempt was the thing about alignment of the plane number. They are not aligned to the rudder slit on any ukrainian plane. They sit on top of the coat of arms on 90degree relative to the length axis.

I won't disagree with you on that front, though I think it's more organic than some people like to paint it, given /k/'s long and storied history of laughing at the Russians. The interesting thing about the spectator gallery is that it doesn't divide neatly down the traditional political lines. On the Left, it's NPCs vs diehard Tankies, while the Right is having what I guess would be least controversially described as a split between people who see a bit of early America in Ukraine's fight for independence vs the ones that don't want to pass up an opportunity to hurt the Pax Americana.

Just gonna drop to say that i'm dissapointed it's been like 100 days and there's still no foreseable end to this. Sad.

Another 48 hours and this will officially have gone on longer than the Winter War!

 

[kuuu]

It's worth mentioning that this wouldn't be the first friendly fire incident in the Ukrainian Air Force, in the first days of the war, a jet was shot down in Kyiv and hit an apartment building and it was later confirmed that it was FF.

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Anyways, that jet in particular was confirmed Ukrainian. Russian MoD usually reports this kind of thing so they're either reporting with delay (not surprising) or this was shot down and news of it hadn't reached them yet.

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They did say that a Ukrainian Mig-29 was shot down yesterday in today's report.

Минобороны России

⚡️Брифинг Минобороны России (06.06.2022 г.) ◽️Вооруженные Силы Российской Федерации продолжают специальную военную операцию на Украине. 💥 ВКС России высокоточными ракетами воздушного базирования большой дальности на окраине населенного пункта Лозовая Харьковской области...

t.me

The one you have on last three pics.

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Counterpoint:

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CopiumDamage control, rather.

Here's the plane in it's last coat of paint.
Hard edges can be explained solely due to the fact that those were stickers with metal underneath surrounded by paint and probably had couple of layers of protective coating on top. Consistent with how coat of arms sticker had burned.
That pic with perspective and shit doesn't take into account that there is only half or even less of the tail wing left. And that you are sorta looking at the remains of the wing slightly from behind.

 

[KonradCruise]

Just gonna drop to say that i'm dissapointed it's been like 100 days and there's still no foreseable end to this. Sad.

The fighting will continue until Zelensky runs out of bodies or both sides compromise on current holdings. Even if the ukes are doing appreciable damage to russian armor stockpiles, the sunk cost fallacy is probably in play here to some degree as well. Russia can easily pad losses by continuing to throw chechens and other vassals into the grinder.

Russia currently has the warm water port+DPR which is essentially a strategic win condition already.

 

[Wy4M]

I think Turkey is still cock-blocking them.

fyi - It's their application to join NATO that Turkey is currently blocking.
If their application gets approved then they can move on to the next step and that's joining NATO.

I think that in both cases all NATO countries have to vote YES in order for them to succeed.

 

[Wy4M]

The weapons and ammo Greece will deliver shortly to Ukraine:


Someone will be very grateful for this.

Spoiler

 

[Givi]

Update on the battles near Kherson: the Ukrainians had indeed gained a bridgehead in Davydid Brid in the Ingulets River, and had been transferring equipment through it (not new info). The Russians claim that Davydid Brid was defended only by a platoon, who managed to hold up the UAF until reinforcements arrived, at which point they orchestrated an organized retreat. This has been for the past few days (3 or so?). Now, while this loss was confirmed, the Russians themselves gained a bridgehead at the same time, having attacked through Velyka Oleksandrivka, and reportedly pushing all the way to Bila Krynitsia, a good ways off from the Ingulets.

Today, claims arrive that the UAF was intentionally allowed to push into Davydid Brid and take ground, at which point they were surrounded and pushed back. The Russians claim to have retaken everything up to the Ingulets, again, while maintaining their own bridgehead. If you believe any of this, it's up to you. Personally I doubt the platoon story, at the very least. Heavy clashes are relative and ephemeral - this is a low intensity zone and the only constant is artillery duels.

In Kharkiv it's been claimed for nearly two weeks from the Russian side that almost everything up to Staryi Saltiv has been retaken in a counteroffensive, and the city itself is being fought over. The Ukrainians have already managed to transfer some troops and equipment to the other side however.

Not much change anywhere else but the progress in Sviatohirsk seems palpable. I don't believe it will be under UAF control for long, relatively speaking. News is coming out that it's almost completely under Russian control, the bridge to it was blown and some UAF personnel that were cut off and left behind were forced to swim across in their retreat. The Russian MoD claims there were 80 of them, and although they were sighted, the totally and 100% humane and morally superior Russian servicemen didn't open fire.

 

[kuuu]

The weapons and ammo Greece will deliver shortly to Ukraine:
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Someone will be very grateful for this.

Spoiler

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Greece government supported sanctions against the leader of the Russian Orthodox Church.
It's 11/10 on the scale of how cucked their government is.

 

[Gay_nig_from_outer_space]

Theory: Watermelon Seller is cucking Sweden/Finland not just because of the Kurds stuff but also because he's trying to have good relations with Russia when this all blows over.

 

[A_Callow_Youth]

The fighting will continue until Zelensky runs out of bodies or both sides compromise on current holdings. Even if the ukes are doing appreciable damage to russian armor stockpiles, the sunk cost fallacy is probably in play here to some degree as well. Russia can easily pad losses by continuing to throw chechens and other vassals into the grinder.

Russia currently has the warm water port+DPR which is essentially a strategic win condition already.

Thing is, until Russia conducts a mass mobilization, I'm not seeing a scenario where Ukraine runs out of bodies first. Russia's finally shifted out of the cheeki breeki bullshit into their traditional attrition meat grinder tactics, but the math isn't adding up for them. Russia has about 1 million men in active service across all branches, of whom a significant portion can't be sent to Ukraine due to other strategic concerns. Chechnya and the breakaways can bolster this somewhat, possibly even as far as another million if they push it hard enough, but Syria and Belarus appear to be trying very hard to not get dragged into this to any significant degree.

So, even in the most optimistic scenario, Russia has 2 million men to throw at Ukraine as long as they keep it up as is. For comparison, 2 million is a hair under 5% of Ukraine's total population, or roughly 10% of its male population. That's certainly a high percentage to have mobilized, but the Soviet Union got at least twice that percentage into uniform during the Second World War. If you apply similar numbers to Ukraine, they can potentially wind up with 4 million men for the Russians to grind through. Manpower isn't the whole story, but if we treat these as peer forces trading roughly blow-for-blow, then Russia's usual playbook just isn't going to work here.

 

[Tom Nook's Gloryhole]

It's looking a lot like Ukraine has made some gains over the past few days, and it doesn't LOOK like Russia are doing a tactical retreat to simply counter them once cut off.

Looks to me like the battle lines have been drawn up and this is pretty much where we're going to be stuck with for months with a few metres one way and then the other.

 

[DumbDude42]

Greece government supported sanctions against the leader of the Russian Orthodox Church.
It's 11/10 on the scale of how cucked their government is.

didn't russian orthodox church and greek orthodox church already have a little feud a couple years ago when the greek patriarch in constantinople recognized ukrainian orthodox church as independent, which made the russian patriarch in moscow a bit angry?

 

[kuuu]

didn't russian orthodox church and greek orthodox church already have a little feud a couple years ago when the greek patriarch in constantinople recognized ukrainian orthodox church as independent, which made the russian patriarch in moscow a bit angry?

Sure, but these instances are in two different ballparks. Leave church stuff to the church.

 

[Gay_nig_from_outer_space]

didn't russian orthodox church and greek orthodox church already have a little feud a couple years ago when the greek patriarch in constantinople recognized ukrainian orthodox church as independent, which made the russian patriarch in moscow a bit angry?

Bartholomew is a crypto-papist piece of shit but yes that's more or less correct.